📈THE NBA DYNASTY REPORT - October 29, 2023📈 (Patreon)

Seven games last night and we are seeing some major dynasty breakouts forming already. 

Here we go!

Jalen Duren

23 PTS | 15 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 9-11 FT | 33 MIN

🔸How dominant has Duren been so far? He leads the NBA in offensive rebounding rate and is shooting 82.8% at the rim. Jalen has DOUBLED his block rate from last year and TRIPLED his assist rate. It’s early but this kid looks like the NBA’s next young star at the center position.

Tyrese Maxey

34 PTS | 7-9 3PT | 6 REB | 7 AST | 1 BLK | 5-11 2PT | 3-3 FT | 40 MIN

🔸Maxey has doubled his AST rate compared to last year in these first two games and is shooting 58.8% from three on massive volume. It will be absolutely criminal if he has to take a back seat to Harden soon - let Tyrese cook!

Scottie Barnes

24 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 8 REB | 5 AST | 2 BLK | 9-11 2PT | 37 MIN

🔸Barnes looking like every bit of a top 15 dynasty asset so far - the 97th percentile block rate might not be sustainable but he’s now registered a block in six straight games (16 blocks in total!) and the Raptors are playing him more as an interior defender. 3PT volume is up too. It’s all happening for Scottie.

Evan Mobley

33 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 14 REB | 3 AST | 3 BLK | 11-21 2PT | 8-10 FT | 33 MIN

🔸We finally saw an aggressive Evan Mobley in this one - going 10-16 at the rim with some emphatic dunks. The free throw shooting has been a slight positive so far (12-16 in two games) and it’s nice to see him finally attempt (and hit!) a three. We want more but this was a very positive step forward.

Cade Cunningham

25 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 4 REB | 10 AST | 8-15 2PT | 6-7 FT | 40 MIN

🔸Cade was cooking against the Bulls - finding his spots in the midrange (4-7) and, most importantly, drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line. The massive assist rate (37.9%) is everything we hoped for. The Cade breakout is upon us.

Ausar Thompson

9 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 12 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-5 2PT | 3-4 FT | 31 MIN

🔸Ausar’s elite rebounding is VERY real and boosts his fantasy profile beyond what even I optimistically projected out of Overtime Elite. Add in a 95th percentile block rate (6.3%) and the fact that his steal numbers haven’t jumped yet and you could see top 50 production in the second half from Ausar.

Keyonte George

12 PTS | 2-8 3PT | 7 REB | 6 AST | 1 STL | 2-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 27 MIN

🔸The minutes were expanded by the Jazz getting blown out BUT it looks like Talen Horton-Tucker’s run as starting PG is nearing the end and this is George’s job in short order. We’ve been ahead of this for awhile but the redraft/season-long players are realizing it too - Keyonte is the Jazz’s future.

Jaden Ivey

7 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 AST | 1 STL | 2-4 2PT | 22 MIN

🔸Ivey’s middling role continues - and there’s real danger for lower minutes once Bogdanovic, Morris and Livers return to crowd this rotation further. On the positive side? His assist and steal rates are holding to his rookie-levels and he’s shown dramatic improvement at the rim (7-11 / 63.6% compared to 51.8% last season). Remains a HOLD in dynasty.

Walker Kessler

2 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 24 MIN

🔸Kessler is shooting threes rather than having a substantial role in the Jazz offense and he’s yet to play more than 23 minutes in three games. I’ve been lower on Kessler than others in my dynasty rankings but I still think there’s a big bounceback coming. Don’t panic sell.

Bennedict Mathurin

13 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 1 AST | 4-7 2PT | 2-3 FT | 17 MIN

🔸The Pacers’ minutes were wonky in this one with McConnell returning to the rotation - I think Mathurin jumps back up to his usual role in the next one.

Xavier Tillman

8 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 7 REB | 3 AST | 1-5 2PT | 24 MIN

🔸A slower night with some foul trouble but you still see the outlines of a strong all-around stat line - he’s a hold in all formats and the addition of Biyombo doesn’t change Tillman’s outlook.

Gradey Dick

16 PTS | 4-6 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 28 MIN

🔸Surprise! It’s Gradey Dick in the box (score). Anunoby’s absence opened up minutes for Gradey who hit a bunch of threes, fouled five times, and did little else. I think we see him more as the season goes on but he’s back on the bench when OG returns.

Aaron Nesmith

26 PTS | 5–9 3PT | 9 REB | 5-7 2PT | 1-2 FT | 30 MIN

🔸Nesmith shows why preseason matters - he made a leap in those exhibitions, was rewarded with a new contract, and took the reigns at PF ahead of Toppin in this one. We won’t see these minutes (or this shooting) every night, but he’s a clear dynasty add to see where this goes.

Nikola Jovic

8 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 11 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 1-2 2PT | 21 MIN

🔸A blowout with Butler, Martin and Love sitting out - so don’t expect these minutes or role going forward, but you love to see a young player producing when opportunity strikes. This builds on his flashes from the FIBA tournament - Nikola remains a solid dynasty stash.

Bilal Coulibaly

0 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 1 REB | 1 BLK | 0-1 2PT | 14 MIN

🔸Bilal’s preseason was real - in that he IS already an elite defender - but the offense is so raw that he’s not going to get minutes until the Wizards pull the ripcord on this season and move to a full tank. I’m expecting a big post-All Star stretch from Coulibaly.

Dyson Daniels

2 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 1-4 2PT | 0-4 FT | 22 MIN

🔸Really struggling offensively and will be crunched for minutes once Alvarado, Marshall, and Murphy III return in the coming weeks. I still believe in Dyson long-term but it doesn’t feel like it’s happening during the first half of this season.

Paul Reed

4 PTS | 5 REB | 1 STL | 2-4 2PT | 13 MIN

🔸Continues to play as straight backup to Embiid with no overlap. The Sixers’ options at PF could easily falter, so there’s some hope we see Reed’s role expand, but it’s been disappointing so far.

Patrick Williams

0 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 0-2 2PT | 21 MIN

🔸Williams has zero attempts at the rim in three games and is 1 for 9 from three. His defensive contributions aren’t significant enough to warrant starters’ minutes if he’s a liability on offense - this is getting depressing.

Corey Kispert

22 PTS | 5-10 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 3-4 2PT | 1-1 FT | 32 MIN

🔸Kispert was on fire from three but that’s the full extent of his fantasy game - if we get a streak of these nights, I’m selling to get a prospect with higher upside.

Ziaire Williams

16 PTS | 4-12 3PT | 10 REB | 1 AST | 2-2 2PT | 34 MIN

🔸Williams is getting up a career-high 6.9 3PT per 75 possessions and has dramatically improved as a rebounder in the early-going (78th percentile defensive rebounding rate compared to 5th percentile in his rookie season).The defensive stats are non-existent and he can’t pass or create for himself - but there’s still some upside here.

Quentin Grimes

5 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1-3 2PT | 27 MIN

🔸Finally got some steals and the minutes were solid for a blowout - we need to see more threes fall and have these kind of defensive stats more consistently.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

7 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 2-2 2PT | 18 MIN

🔸A spot start and you like to see that Miami is comfortable with him in the rotation. Watch his 3PT volume through this season - that’s the swing skill that will determine Jaquez’s fantasy ceiling.

Andrew Nembhard

4 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 2 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 2-3 2PT | 25 MIN

🔸Back to earth after a huge opener - if McConnell is back in the regular rotation it takes a lot of short-term upside off of Nembhard.

David Roddy

14 PTS | 3-4 3PT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 1 BLK | 2-4 2PT | 1-1 FT | 24 MIN

🔸Nice to see some shots fall for Roddy but the role is too small here for fantasy relevance unless he starts generating more steals. I could easily see him falling out of the rotation for stretches this year.

Jordan Hawkins

9 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 0-1 2PT | 18 MIN

🔸This is probably the ceiling for Hawkins’ lines during his rookie season, but it’s good to see him hitting threes and playing in the rotation (even if the minutes were boosted by garbage time).

Ochai Agbaji

0 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 1 BLK | 6 MIN

🔸After some offseason hype, Agbaji’s minutes have declined in each of the Jazz’s first three games. He’s a low per-minute fantasy producer who needs 32+ minutes to be relevant.

Jamal Cain

8 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 5 REB | 2 STL | 4-5 2PT | 25 MIN

🔸Cain is a strong candidate to be the next “out-of-nowhere” Miami Heat rotation player. A strong rebounder who was efficient from the field in the G League last year.

Taylor Hendricks

DNP-CD

🔸The Jazz have sent a strong message that Hendricks is too raw for minutes. Hold for now and let’s see how this rotation changes as the Jazz accept that this team is playing for lottery balls.

Jaden Springer

DNP-CD

🔸Outside the 10-man rotation in this one as we saw 12 minutes of Danuel House. Keep him stashed and wait for the Sixers’ old bench to miss time. Jaden’s opportunity is coming.