📈THE NBA DYNASTY REPORT - October 30, 2023📈 (Patreon)

Breakouts are happening. Panic is setting in on some top prospects.

Let's go through all of Sunday's notable performances to sort it all out.

Keegan Murray

17 PTS | 3-9 3PT | 8 REB | 5 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-5 2PT | 2-3 FT | 33 MIN

🔸Keegan’s steal, block and offensive rebounding rates have all nearly doubled so far and his usage is finally at 20% - aided by an increase in self-created rim and midrange attempts. We’re beginning to see the Keegan we fell in love with at Iowa and that wowed us in Summer League. And Fox’s injury should accelerate the breakout.

Alperen Şengün

19 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 5 REB | 7 AST | 6-13 2PT | 4-4 FT | 33 MIN

🔸Şengün’s assist rate is up to 34.5% (92nd percentile) across three games and he’s THIRD in the entire league in frontcourt touches behind only Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic. This is the kind of offensive role that breakouts are made of - especially if Alperen’s defensive growth from the preseason and first three games continues.

Chet Holmgren

19 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 4 REB | 6-8 2PT | 4-4 FT | 26 MIN

🔸Chet is ahead of schedule offensively - shooting 77.8% at the rim and 54.5% from three on 4.9 attempts per 75 possessions. The rebounding and block production has been uneven, but that will stabilize very quickly. Holmgren is looking like every bit the fantasy star we hoped for.

Victor Wembayama

🔸11 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4-8 2PT | 3-6 FT | 26 MIN

The veteran-laden Clippers are going to destroy young teams this season and the Spurs were the latest victim. This should be the wake up call to get Victor the ball more - he’s somehow SIXTH on this team in passes received.

Jalen Williams

13 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 3 REB | 5 AST | 1 BLK | 6-8 2PT | 1-1 FT | 28 MIN

🔸3PT volume was down here after consistently getting them up in his prior six games. But JDub’s offensive role is strong enough to support a big offensive season - he’s averaging 12.5 drives per game so far - a notable increase from the 9.5 drives per game he averaged last season - and is also getting more touches than last year. Big numbers ahead.

Shaedon Sharpe

20 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 5-9 2PT | 4-5 FT | 36 MIN

🔸The “future star” indicators are popping for Shaedon - he’s creating unassisted shots at all three-levels - going from 66.7% of his attempts being assisted in 22-23 to a 84th percentile 36.4% so far this season. The Blazers are awful but Sharpe’s future is bright.

Jabari Smith Jr.

14 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 8 REB | 5 AST | 2 STL | 4-6 2PT | 34 MIN

🔸Jabari’s offensive role, shot profile and usage look nearly identical to last season but he looks more competent defensively, remains a solid rebounder, and has at least produced four steals in three games. He’s a hold until the Rockets stabilize (will that ever happen?).

Josh Giddey

9 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 2 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 3-11 2PT | 22 MIN

🔸A brutal 1 of 13 from the midrange so far and seeing his overall touches decline significantly from last season (team-leading 76.7 per game to 61.7) - it feels like Giddey will need to adapt his game to fit into OKC’s plans this season. He’s a hold until further notice - the fantasy ceiling is too strong to be short-sighted.

Scoot Henderson

4 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 1 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 2-3 2PT | 27 MIN

🔸Steve Nash. Kobe Bryant. Gary Payton. James Harden. Darius Garland. Just some of the future All Star on-ball creators who struggled horribly in their rookie seasons. This happens every year in the NBA and yet the panic is setting in once again for Scoot Henderson. This is where we win - use this predictable slow start to acquire Scoot at a reduced price.

Jalen Johnson

14 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 4-7 2PT | 26 MIN

🔸Started but lost minutes to foul trouble - but that didn’t matter because he’s a per-minute monster. The defensive rebounding, STL and BLK rates are elite and he’s using his supreme athleticism to dominate at the rim (13-17 in three games). Feels like he may be a top 50 dynasty asset in short order.

Amen Thompson

9 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 4 REB | 1 STL | 2-3 2PT | 2-2 FT | 20 MIN

🔸Like Scoot Henderson, Amen is learning that having a heavy on-ball role as an NBA rookie is painful. And like Scoot, I’m trying to pry Amen away from any panicking managers in all dynasty leagues. PATIENCE, everyone!

Onyeka Okongwu

14 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 7-9 2PT | 23 MIN

🔸Even minutes split with Capela (and even some overlap!) - we also saw Okongwu attempt a couple threes for the first time in the regular season (5-13 in the preseason). The upside remains massive and I’m holding and acquiring in all formats.

Jalen Green

21 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 9 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 7-15 2PT | 4-5 FT | 38 MIN

🔸Rough efficiency (47.4 TS%) to start the season, assist rate is a paltry 7.4% and we’re still waiting on his steal rate to come out of the basement. Green is talented enough to turn this around but we need to see signs of life in Year 3.

Jeremy Sochan

0 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 0-0 2PT | 22 MIN

🔸Low minutes in a blowout and a tough matchup for the Point Sochan experiment. Sochan’s expanded playmaking role has reduced his shooting volume at all three levels but, on the positive side, he’s generated at least one steal in seven straight contests stretching back through the preseason.

Cason Wallace

7 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 2-2 2PT | 22 MIN

🔸Hyper-efficient in limited action so far (team-leading .547 points per touch and only one missed shot in three games) - but his role has been almost entirely off-ball. Registered the first steal of his career in this game - the first of many to come. I liked Wallace coming out of Kentucky and I like him even more based on these early performances.

Peyton Watson

17 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 7-8 2PT | 22 MIN

🔸Some of this production came in garbage time but Watson has secured his role in this rotation and is demonstrating the all-around stat set that made him a dynasty target for us over the last year. 87.5% at the rim and 44.4% from 3PT across his first three games.

Jonathan Kuminga

9 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 2-5 2PT | 19 MIN

🔸Draymond’s returns caps Kuminga’s short-term ceiling but Wiggins’ continued struggles could create more opportunity. Long-term - his growth this preseason cannot be ignored and his time is coming.

Moses Moody

5 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 0-1 2PT | 2-2 FT | 17 MIN

🔸Getting up 7.3 three point attempts per 75 possessions which is the growth we needed to see from Moody in Year 3.

Christian Braun

13 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 7 REB | 7 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4-7 2PT | 5-5 FT | 21 MIN

🔸Six of his seven assists came in the competitive portion of the game - which is the most intriguing flash of fantasy potential that I’ve seen from Braun. I’ve been skeptical but this has my attention.

Toumani Camara

12 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 2 BLK | 4-11 2PT | 1-2 FT | 28 MIN

🔸Some of this was garbage time but make sure Camara isn’t available in leagues rostering 250+ players - he’s cementing his role in this rotation and has the stat set to produce meaningful fantasy numbers once the Blazers pull their veterans in the second half of the season.

Julian Strawther

8 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 1-2 2PT | 8 MIN

🔸Still not in the rotation but nice to see his preseason shooting continue in garbage time here.

Jabari Walker

12 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 4 STL | 1 BLK | 3-6 2PT | 3-3 FT | 24 MIN

🔸Walker’s role will be limited on most nights but this performance in a blowout demonstrates why he’s a strong dynasty stash who can become a fantasy relevant role player in his prime.