Road to UFC 2: Episode 5 Breakdown and Predictions (Patreon)

Featherweight, Li Kaiwen Vs. Kouya Kanda

Tale of the tape

Li Kaiwen
Hunan, China
27-years-old
5'9"
11-5
Two-fight win streak

Kouya Kanda
Abiko, Chiba, Japan
27-years-old
5'11"
12-4
Four-fight win streak

Pros and Cons

Li Kaiwen

Pros

• Volume striker
• Heavy hands
• Good right hand
• Dangerous pocket striker
• Good leg kicks

Cons

• Too willing to brawl
• Fight IQ lacks
• Not much off his back
• Sits in the pocket too long
• Lacks head movement
• TDD needs work
• Poor cardio

Kouya Kanda

Pros

• Good use of range
• Slick pull-counter
• Good wrestling
• Quick level changes
• Good leg kicks
• Good right hand

Cons

• Head sits on the centerline at times
• Vulnerable in heavy exchanges
• Low volume
• Questionable chin
• Well-conditioned
• Too patient

Prediction: Kanada was underwhelming coming into the tournament and in his first fight he really didn't show anything positive. He went to a decision in a very unforgettable fight. Kaiwen on the other hand was dynamite in this first-round fight getting a quick knockout win. Kanda is low-volume and very patient in his approach. Kaiwen is the complete opposite as he will take it to Kanada fast and hard. Kaiwen has some concerns defensively but it's nothing I expect Kanda to exploit. Kanada doesn't have any power to crack the chin of Kaiwen and his wrestling wont be good enough. I feel goona about picking Kaiwen for an early knockout.

Flyweight, Jiniushiyue Vs. Choi Seung Guk

Tale of the Tape

Jiniushiyue
Chengdu, Sichuan, China
22-years-old
5'8"
12-2
Six-fight win streak

Choi Seung Guk
Seoul, South Korea
26-years-old
5'6"
6-2

Pros and Cons

Jiniushiyue

Pros

• Good defensive wrestling
• Heavy top position
• Heavy ground and pound
• Solid wrestling
• Good chain-wrestling
• Scrambles well

Cons

• Chin straight up

Choi Seung Guk

Pros

• Good leg kicks
• Uses feints well
• Good counter-puncher
• Good movement
• Scrambles well
• Decent enough wrestling
• Good ground and pound

Cons

• Telegraphs his takedown entries
• Too willing to stand and trade
• Lacks head movement

Prediction: Jiniushiyue looked really good in the first round of the tournament but did get a gimmie fight against a former strawweight. Guk didn't fight a great opponent but he's proved he belongs in this tournament. Guk doesn't do anything super impressive but he does everything well. He's a complete fighter that's borderline UFC-level. Jiniushiyue on the other hand is still riding a lot of unknowns. He's solely a wrestler and has good ground control. He's not near as complete with little to offer on the feet. Guk just fought a powerful wrestler. He did get taken down a bunch but he always got right back up. I do think Jiniushiyue can take Guk down but I don't think he can hold it down. Guk is gonna put Jiniushiyue in an unfamiliar spot on the feet making him fight his type of fight. With a clear path to victory and better cardio Guk should be able to control this fight.

Featherweight, Yi Zha Vs. Sang Won Kim

Tale of the Tape

Yi Zha
Aba, Sichuan, China
26-years-old
5'7"
25-3

Sang Won Kim
Seoul, South Korea
29-years-old
5’10″
10-5-1

Pros and Cons

Yi Zha

Pros

• Good ground and pound
• Strong wrestling
• Submission threat
• Scrambles really well
• Light footwork
• Good output
• Fast starter
• Good off his back

Cons

• Questionable chin
• TDD needs a little work

Sang Won Kim

Pros

• Explosive
• Dangerous flurries
• Good right-cross
• Credible wrestling
• Fast
• Good volume

Cons

• Slows as the fight goes
• Suspect TDD
• Vulnerable in exchanges
• Doesn't do well when pressured

Prediction: Zha is another one that's proved he belongs. He's made it this far and last season he made it all the way to the finals. Kim got an upset win in the opening round knocking out Keisuke Sasu. Kim is better than his record suggests but like I said before, he has five losses for a reason. Zha is good with very little holes as it's just not putting it together for the most part. Kim is a dangerous striker but his defense is poor in every aspect. I'm extremely confident in Zha and I think he finds the finish early.

Flyweight, Rei Tsuruya Vs. Mark Climaco

Tale of the Tape

Rei Tsuruya
Chiba, Japan
21-years-old
5'3"
7-0
Eight-fight win streak

Mark Climaco
Fremont, California, US
25-years-old
5’4″
9-1
Three-fight win streak

Pros and Cons

Rei Tsuruya

Pros

• Good wrestling/judo
• Excellent ground and pound
• Smooth grappling
• Strong positional grappling
• Scrambles well
• Submission threat
• Quick hands
• Good activity
• Aggressive

Cons

• Lacks head movement
• Hands low at times
• Shoots from too far out at times

Mark Climaco

Pros

• Excellent wrestling
• Slick short combinations
• Wonderful defensive wrestling
• Well-timed takedown entries
• Good positional grappler
• Good ground and pound
• Chain-wrestles very well
• High work-rate
• Good kickboxer
• High wrestling pace
• Submission threat
• Throws a lot of different patterns
• Good counter striker

Cons

• Head sits on the centerline at times

Prediction: I love this fight and I hate that they have to fight each other not even in the finals. Both are so good that this is easily a UFC-level fight. Both guys could no doubt be future-ranked UFC flyweights. I do believe Tsuruya is gonna show he's a bit human for the most part. He's looked outstanding in his career breezing through everyone. He hasn't fought the caliber of fighter Climaco is. Rei hasn't had to strike any because he gets early takedowns and dominates on the ground. I don't see that happening as Climaco is a legit wrestler and defensively he's hard to get down and to hold down. We know Climaco can strike when needed but we don't know how well Tsuruya can strike. This is gonna answer a lot of questions about Tsuruya and right now I think it's too much of a step up in competition. The pick is Climaco as he's more proven. 

Flyweight, Peter Danesoe Vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Tale of the Tape

Peter Danesoe
Chiang Mai, Thailand
22-years-old
5'7"
6-2
Six-fight win streak

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Mongolia
25-years-old
5'7"
7-0
Seven-fight win streak

Pros and Cons

Peter Danesoe

Pros

• Good leg kicks
• Nice clinch work
• Good knees
• Improved striking
• Explosive
• Credible wrestling
• Good ground and pound

Cons

• Poor cardio
• Poor TDD

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Pros

• Fast starter
• Good volume
• Knockout power/Heavy hands
• Submission threat
• Aggressive

Cons

• Struggles off his back
• Sloppy triking/Swings wild
• Reckless
• Poor TDD
• Loads up
• Comes in on straight lines

Prediction: Both these guys won their non-tournament bouts last round so they are fighting each other now. Tumendemberel answered a lot of questions as before he was just knocking fools out with no issue. He fought to a tough decision where he showed big holes in his striking technique and takedown defense. Danesoe has a great flying knee knockout over a talented Sim Kai Xiong who I was confident would win. Tumendemberel was underwhelming and Danesoe exceeded expectations. As much as I was impressed with Danesoe last time I think this is a bad match-up for him. I still have strong concerns with his takedown defense and cardio and Tumendemberel can exploit that. Tumendemberel showed he can take a shot so I'm confident if anyone is finishing early it's him. If not I'm way more confident in his ability to dig deep and pull out a win. the winner of this should get signed to the UFC.