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IA Trade Alert (Patreon)

Published:
2023-07-10 19:58:53
Imported:
2023-07

Content

Hey Team

Just added BITF.  BITF is still underperforming BTC since the top but given the moves in the other miners this one has room to run.

I have been waiting for the right time to buy Bitfarms. As you know, it came out on top in my most recent analysis. This data was just corroborated by my new Miner Model, which scores all key metrics in weighted percentiles.

The top 3 are now as follows. I am still refining the model, but it consistently comes out on top. I own a large bag of CLSK.

I sold the Jan 2025 $1.50 Puts and bought the Jan 2025 $1.50 calls for a net debit of 40 cents. My breakeven is $1.90.  $BITF Price at the time of trade is $1.80

I just need BITF to go up 10 cents over the next 18 months for this trade to be profitable.

I will dig into CIFR next but it has a few tiny issues.

You can see BITF one my last analysis the old way also


Files

Comments

Anonymous

I bought BitFarms after your last video. I'm up 32% already!!! Thanks James!!!

Anonymous

I got some Bitforms, thanks James

Anonymous

why is WULF going up like a rocket compared to the other miners?

Anonymous

Bitfarms are based in Argentina ( or part based)....and have no fixed electric tariffs if I recall I have some from 2021 so losing 80pc ...

Anonymous

I pulled the trigger on SDIG on 6/29 at $4.04 after seeing miners post. It's up 123% so far. Thoughts on sticking in the position or rolling profits into BITF?

Anonymous

Added some more BITF just now, will sell some calls against it tomorrow, thanks james!

Anonymous

Robinhood has it at $1.10 for January 2025 darn it

Anonymous

Okay, something is wrong. I never beat James to the punch but I'm holding BITF Jan 25 SLs with strikes of 0.50 (BE 0.66) and 1.00 (BE 0.61). I think this is a corollary of a broken clock is right twice a day

Anonymous

great info James thanks

Anonymous

I’m up 100% on this one Bought back in March

Anonymous
>>112623041

ok, I'm confused. I opened these positions in April. Not sure how buying earlier and cheaper is chasing ;-)

Anonymous

Spots up 22% If it’s ranked high on James’s rankings, you better pay attention and Do Some Research!! Miners on fire 🔥 Thanks James 🤙

Anonymous

Right, it’s time to buy myself a options course and learn what’s actually going on 🤓

Anonymous

Thanks for heads up. I add BITF around $1.10 when you did your analysis 2-3 months ago

Anonymous

Past month: Corzq 167% Hut 99% Clsk 66% Bitf 61%

Anonymous

IA: Thanks for laying out your strategy .. I get it now .. U like to buy at the close. Reason?

Anonymous

Hi James, can you explain your thought process a bit further behind selling puts and buying call with same strike price and expiry? When I looked at BITF, Mean reversion model shows the price is approaching 1.5 Std. Dev from the mean. Trend model showing blue trend but no flipping yet so like to understand the thought process here. Thank you and love everything Options that you share.

Anonymous

Bought bags of different miners when everything crashed last year. D🔥🔥🔥 GREE up 250% for the month

Anonymous

Any thoughts on GBTC,GDLC if ETF is approved? Puts maybe? Would there be any use for the trust, wouldn't most use the ETF instead?🤔

Anonymous

I have RIOT stock from last year with a huge loss. Pride aside, here are the numbers a -$18.14/ share as of today. Do I ride this wave back up or sell now and ride up BITF, CLSK etc.? As RIOT is a higher risk based on the debt factor alone.

Anonymous

Google Bard explained James’s strategy: James is using a bull put spread strategy. This is a bullish options strategy that is used to profit from a stock's expected rise in price. In a bull put spread, James sells a put option and buys a put option with the same expiration date and strike price, but with a lower premium. The net debit of the trade is the difference between the premiums of the two options. In this example, James sold the Jan 2025 $1.50 Puts for a premium of $0.40 and bought the Jan 2025 $1.50 Calls for a premium of $0.00, for a net debit of $0.40. His breakeven point is $1.90, which is the strike price plus the net debit of the trade. This means that he will break even if the price of BITF at expiration is $1.90. If the price of BITF is above $1.90 at expiration, the calls will be exercised and James will buy 100 shares of BITF at $1.50. His profit will be the difference between the market price of BITF and the strike price of $1.50. If the price of BITF is below $1.50 at expiration, the puts will be exercised and James will be assigned 100 shares of BITF. His loss will be limited to the net debit of $0.40. Since the price of BITF is currently $1.80, James is expecting the price to rise above $1.90 by expiration. If the price does rise, he will profit from the trade. However, if the price falls below $1.50, he will lose money. The bull put spread is a relatively low-risk options strategy that can be used to profit from a stock's expected rise in price. However, it is important to remember that there is always the risk of losing money on an options trade. In this particular case, James is expecting the price of BITF to rise to at least $1.90 by expiration. If the price does rise, he will profit from the trade. However, if the price falls below $1.50, he will lose money. The maximum loss he could incur is $0.40, which is the net debit of the trade.

Anonymous
>>112629994

I’m not James; however, I typically buy limit orders about 10 minutes before the closing. Why? Day/Short/many major institutions unload near the closing bell.I have been doing it for decades. I like selling (always limit) about 10:45 am or 1:45 pm. I am not a professional trader however on balance it works for me.

Anonymous

Anyone know how many BTC / share MSTR owns? To determine the premium of MSTR as a BTC proxy? So if such premium evaporated the share price should be “x”?

Anonymous
>>112634062

Same argument for all BTC proxies including MSTR. In the case of GBTC, If they win SEC case their best move would be to instantly reduce the 2% mgmt fee to 20 bps, then it should effectively be an ETF. They would be first mover

Anonymous

Doing the same, add more with other profit to cover and wait for the rebound…

Anonymous
>>112634062

What are the odds SEC doesn't give ETF to BR 1st? Probably let them be the only one for at least a bit. BL pretty much runs SEC. Then what use is the trust of GBTC? Even if they lower the fees,etc. Most investors would rather own the BTC. Miners still mine, MSTR still about largest proxy & does CyberSecurity.

Anonymous
>>112638321

Well said...I read it twice and then it clicked! Wish there was a video on how to execute this

Anonymous

Thanks James !! On your first BITF video , I took some stocks at 1.5 and also took small option contract (to test my paper skills ) expiring 21st july, breakeven is 2.10 , very excited ,like a kid, to see the outcome. Any feedback is appreciated! Thanks a lot James !!

Anonymous

hmm don't know if your perspective is the most significant one. I calculate to 1/4/22 for the miners and BITF is around 180% CLSK and H8 are around 250%.

Anonymous

IS that ARB CLOUD in the screenshot? If so, what Arb Cloud settings did you use for BITF?

Anonymous
>>112638321

This is not a bull put spread but a "synthetic long" (sell a put (ATM), buy a call (ATM)).

Anonymous
>>112638321

I don’t believe that what’s written here is correct. He’s buying a CALL and selling a put as part of a synthetic long. Same qty, same expiration, same strike. Also your example would have a net CREDIT of $0.40, not a net debit. His synthetic long is a HIGH risk strategy, because you can win big and loose big. I say this in kindness, not to point out problems, but to protect others from bad info.

Anonymous
>>112643226

The exact answer you are looking for is all calculated and up-to-date in James’s MSTR vs BTC arbitrage calculator sheet. Look in previous posts for the link.

Anonymous
>>112636751

I think you shoulda swapped last month man or sell it and hope for a pull back or redeploy into btc it's self(the later is the safest) at this point just to make sure u don't lose any more. If it's a decent bag break it into portions like 500 bucks break it use some of it to ride up the smaller miners that haven't run as hard and then either wait for pull backs and snipe blue chips instead.

Anonymous
>>112636751

I sold my RIOT stocks and moved 70% to BITF and 30% to CLSK.

Anonymous

How is BITF underperforming BTC when BITF is up 80% in 4 weeks? Note I have been holding BITF all year. :)

Anonymous

what price did you buy BITF yesterday? I'm considering putting an order in tomorrow (after today's slight pullback)

Anonymous
>>112674768

It’s underperforming against the other miners. That’s what he’s saying

Anonymous
>>112638321

Yeah, if it goes to zero he's on the hook for that 1.50 put and also out the premium he paid. So all downside under 1.90. Probably needs quite a bit of margin if the order was big. However, if it never reaches 1.50 again he's got a big window to see how high it can go. Mechanical questions though, as I haven't reached execution stage of my options journey. When you do a pairing type of strategy, is there risk that one side won't get filled or do they only execute together? E.g. you don't want to get stuck holding the put without the call etc. If you were to use a put or call spread and your sold end gets exercised, will the broker automatically trigger your buy side to settle it? E.g. sold a 2.00 put and bought a 1.50 put. The one I sold triggers, I don't have the funds to actually buy those shares, so the 1.50 I hold gets triggered and I'm on the hook for the 0.50 cent difference which I do have the funds for.

Anonymous
>>112674768

Thank you for that! Also I see he said "underperforming BTC since the top." Well that is certainly a long term view!

Anonymous

When you "sell the put" is is sell to close or sell to open on the order and same for the call position.

Anonymous

adding to your BITF position?