Russia-Ukraine Condensed SITREP for 01 OCT 2023 23:15 PDT (Patreon)

As previously announced, there will be condensed Situation Reports through Wednesday and a combat-only report on Thursday as I deal with a personal family matter and business in the Bay Area. I deeply appreciate your understanding. Long-term subscribers will recognize this format from March-May of 2022. It enables quick production while getting the critical bits out. Thank you for your well wishes. 

War Map Link 

Let’s start with the daily assessment.

We maintain that the repeated soft response by Ukraine’s allies after Russian aggression on Ukraine’s border continues to encourage Moscow to take additional risks, and the probability of a serious border incident is increasing.

We maintain our assessment that the dismissal of General of the Army Serhey Surovikin as the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, has resulted in a shift in Russian tactics, with a sharp and notable increase in strikes on economic and military targets.

Ukraine still holds the initiative theaterwide, and the number of combat ineffective and combat destroyed Russian units is growing, eroding Russian combat potential in numerous areas of operation. However, we assess the United States is at risk of contributing to the end of the ongoing Ukrainian offensive and risks encouraging China to take future military action against Taiwan due to wavering support from Washington.

The Russian Ministry of Defense remains in a chaotic state, and there continues to be a lack of mission cohesion between penal units, mobiks, conscripts, elite forces, and proxy forces. The inability of Russian military leaders to stop the ongoing Ukrainian offensive and retake the battlefield initiative has put significant pressure on Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, who has been in charge of all Russian forces in Ukraine since January 2023. However, we do not believe that Russian forces will withdraw from Tokmak to conserve available combat potential for future offensives or the defense of the rear areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu remain some of the best allies available for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense due to their acceptance of systemic corruption, political infighting, and waste of military resources, but the Kremlin is showing an increased capacity to adapt on the battlefield.

The perceived slow progress of the Ukrainian summer-fall offensive, questions about the capabilities of Ukrainian military commanders, ongoing anticorruption measures, and a wave of isolationism sweeping Western nations risk fragmenting Western support. Western partners are not meeting their promised military training, heavy equipment, and ammunition delivery dates. These continued delays negatively impact Ukraine’s military capabilities, and two partners are signaling there could be an end or significant reduction in future support.

We believe Russia has started destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including hybrid warfare. While the possibility of an intentional nuclear accident caused by Russian occupiers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant remains low, the threat should be taken seriously.

Today’s Action Report starts in the Donbas, beginning in Luhansk.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or GSAFU, reported a Russian offensive near Makiivka, which was unsuccessful.

Further south in the Kreminna area of operation, or AO, the Russian Ministry of Defense, or RMOD, reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Dibrova area. There continues to be no change in the situation, and the forwardmost line of friendly troops, or FLOT, has remained relatively stable since July.

In northeast Donetsk, fighting intensified in the Klishchiivka AO. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported heavy mutual fighting near Klishchiivka, east of Andriivka, and near Kurdyumivka. There weren’t any significant changes to the line of conflict.

In southwestern Donetsk, GSAFU reported that Russian forces continued attacks from the Krasnohorivka Plateau, with a failed attempt to advance toward Stepove and, interestingly, a claimed failed attack in the Vesele area, a small village northeast of Avdiivka.

In Marinka, Russia did its Russian thing, ending with the same result – no change in the situation.

Near Vuhledar at Novomykhailivka, the second verse is the same as the first. Russian forces attempted to advance from the east, suffered losses, and returned to their defensive positions.

At the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk administrative border, Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces were on the offensive near Pryyutne, with no change in the situation.

This is what we know about the situation in Zaporizhzhia. South of Orikhiv, heavy fighting continued on the western edge of Verbove, along the second echelon of the Surovikin Line, and near Novoprokopivka and Robotyne.

South of Robotyne, Russian forces were able to advance and retake two of the three trenches and defensive positions. The trenches are interconnected with a tunnel network, enabling Russian troops to move into the fortifications. Fighting for control continues, and Ukraine holds the easternmost trench line. The war map was updated to show the tactical Russian advance.

Ukraine has retaken control of the central and western Black Sea waters as the number of cargo ships departing and arriving at Ukrainian ports increases. On Sunday, three ships departed, carrying grain and iron ore, and five more arrived at Ukrainian ports in the greater Odesa region. During the same period in 2022, when the Black Sea Grain Initiative was in place, an average of five cargo ships arrived at Odesa ports daily.

In occupied Crimea, two missiles were launched at the Russian supply and logistics hub at Dzahankoi. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that both missiles were shot down but acknowledges that debris set warehouses on fire.

Repair work on the Kerch Bridge continues, with satellite images showing that the second section of damaged spans has been removed. The bridge will be closed today and into October 3, likely to install the replacement spans.

Russian forces continued to shell the right (west) bank of the Dnipro River. Kherson Oblast Administrative and Military Governor Alexander Prokudin said Russia carried out 71 fire missions on free Kherson, firing 392 munitions, rockets, drone-delivered IEDs, and bombs, killing one and wounding six. Beryslav was hit by FAB-500S-E glide bombs again, causing additional damage to the hospital and businesses along the river bank.

In northern Ukraine, the Sumy oblast is shelled daily, but there are fewer casualties due to evacuations. Russia carried out 17 fire missions on border hromadas, firing 86 artillery rounds, mortars, and missiles. Durzba was hit by an S-300 antiaircraft missile used for a ground attack, wounding one. Twelve mortars also hit the settlement.

Finally, here are the important theaterwide events.

Russia launched seven Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, with four intercepted. In September, Ukraine was attacked by 513 Shaheds, breaking the previous record 413, set in May 2023. Russian only launched 167 in August, 246 in July, and 197 in June. It is unclear if Russian conserved inventory to launch a wave of larger attacks or if this represents an increase in production capability.

Russia is using multiple routes to attack the same targets, and the new composite materials are making them harder to track using radar.

Ukraine has not received offers from the West or NATO to exchange territory for its membership in the Alliance, according to Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Yevhen Perebeinis. “Ukraine will not trade its territories in exchange for anything.”

There was an unusual incident between Ukrainian Unit 0458, part of the Kraken Special Unit, and Ukrainian police at a Kharkiv checkpoint. The soldiers with Kraken were traveling in four cars, and when stopped at the checkpoint, drew their weapons and ordered the police onto the ground. “We train every day so that you stand here calmly so that you check that no DRG comes here. You should help us and not look for enemies among us, did you hear?” - said one of the armed men. A criminal investigation has been opened, and investigators are trying to untangle the events that led up to the brawl. No shots were fired, and the group was allowed to pass.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak walked back statements made by Minister of Defense Grant Shapps that British troops would provide military training in Ukraine. “The Defense Minister said that this is quite possible. But this is something in the long term, not now.”