Russia-Ukraine Condensed SITREP for 02 OCT 2023 23:59 PDT (Patreon)

As previously announced, there will be condensed Situation Reports through Wednesday and a combat-only report on Thursday as I deal with a personal family matter and business in the Bay Area. I deeply appreciate your understanding. Long-term subscribers will recognize this format from March-May of 2022. It enables quick production while getting the critical bits out. Thank you for your well wishes.

War Map Link

Let’s start with the daily assessment.

The repeated soft response by Ukraine’s allies after Russian aggression on Ukraine’s border continues to encourage Moscow to take additional risks, and the probability of a serious border incident is increasing.

After the dismissal of General of the Army Serhey Surovikin as the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, Russia has significantly increased the number of airstrikes and the use of glide bombs. The VKS increasingly prioritizes economic and military targets over civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Ukraine still holds the initiative theaterwide, but an extended delay of additional military aid from the United States will, in our assessment, force the ongoing Ukrainian offensive to culminate. In our assessment, this couldn’t come at a worse time, with Russia using a rolling and elastic defense as the number of available reserves continues to fall.

The Russian Ministry of Defense remains in a chaotic state, and there continues to be a lack of mission cohesion between penal units, mobiks, conscripts, elite forces, and proxy forces. The inability of Russian military leaders to stop the ongoing Ukrainian offensive and retake the battlefield initiative has put significant pressure on Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, who has been in charge of all Russian forces in Ukraine since January 2023. We do not believe that Russian forces will withdraw from Tokmak to conserve available combat potential for future offensives or the defense of the rear areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

The perceived slow progress of the Ukrainian summer-fall offensive, questions about the capabilities of Ukrainian military commanders, ongoing anticorruption measures, and a wave of isolationism sweeping Western nations risk fragmenting Western support. Western partners are not meeting their promised military training, heavy equipment, and ammunition delivery dates. These continued delays negatively impact Ukraine’s military capabilities, and two partners are signaling there could be an end or significant reduction in future support. Partisan and interparty politics in the United States have paralyzed Congress at least through October 5, causing further delays.

Finally, Russia is actively targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and while the possibility of an intentional nuclear accident caused by Russian occupiers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant remains low, the threat should be taken seriously.

Today’s condensed SITREP starts in Kharkiv. Ukrainian sources reported Russian troops engaged in positional fighting near Synkivka, in the Kupyansk area of operation, or AO.

Kupyansk was hit by a UMPK glide bomb, damaging seven residential buildings and cars. Emergency services were on the scene searching for the wounded.

In the Donbas, the situation remains relatively stable, with intense fighting continuing south of Bakhmut.

In Luhansk, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or GSAFU, reported that Russian offensive operations continued east of Makiivka with no change to the situation.

Near Kreminna, the deployment of the reconstituted Azov Brigade helped Ukrainian forces bring stability to the AO. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that fighting continued near Dibrova.

In the Lysychansk AO, fighting was ongoing near Bilohorivka – the one in the Luhansk oblast.

Following the line of conflict into northeast Donetsk, intense fighting continued near the railroad grade at Klishchiivka and east of Andriivka. Both combatants are engaged in attritional warfare. Fighting is, in a word – brutal – and the battlefield is littered with bodies that can’t be retrieved due to constant shelling and drone strikes. Russian forces are using human wave tactics, attacking in small groups almost simultaneously in multiple directions in an attempt to exhaust Ukrainian troops.

In southwestern Donetsk, fighting has intensified. Russian forces attempted to advance from the Krasnohorivka Plateau again, failing to advance in the direction of Stepove. Russian attacks from Kruta Balka and Opytne in the direction of Avdiivka continue to be unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces have made tactical gains east and southeast of the firebase at Nevelske, unrolling Russian gains made a year ago.

Marinka?

Yes.

Any changes?

No.

Novomykhailivka near Vuhledar?

Yes.

Any changes?

No.

In the Staromlynivka AO, it was also more active. After the deputy commander of the Rosgvardiya forces of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Khodakovsky, complained about the Vostok Brigade being used as frontline troops and suffering heavy losses, they were sent on the offensive again. An attempt to advance on Staromaiorske failed. Between Rivnopil and Pryyutne, fighting also continued. Ukrainian forces made marginal gains in the no man’s land near Pryyutne.

In occupied Donetsk, Russia is building a highway from Rostov-on-Don to Mariupol. Satellite images show that the work is happening roughly parallel to the new railroad line and is bypassing some existing roads closer to the current frontlines.

It appears that the fighting south of Orikhiv is in a stalemate. Still, we’re not prepared to say the ongoing Ukrainian offensive has culminated.

New videos show that Ukrainian forces recaptured the trenches south of Robotyne, and we adjusted the war map. Intense fighting continues west of Verbove, along the Surovikin Line, and east and south of Robotyne, toward Novoprokopivka.

Ukrainian forces have been unable to widen the flanks, secure the last area of high ground near Novoprokopivka, or widen the existing gap in Russian defenses. Russia has been unable to regain lost territory, close the existing gap in their defensive lines, or significantly interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communication, more commonly known as supply lines.

It was quiet in the Black Sea region, with the Navy of Ukraine tightening its grip on the western and central parts of the Black Sea, especially shipping corridors. The Russian VKS continues to bomb Snake Island.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs for Romania, Luminica Odobescu, told reporters that “Russian attacks against civil infrastructure, including ports on the Danube, very close to the border of Romania, are war crimes. What Russia is doing next to our border is undermining the Ukrainian economy, food security, including at the global level, and civil navigation in the Black Sea.”

Odobescu restated Romania’s commitment to supporting Ukrainian grain shipments in what he called the “roads of solidarity.”

TWO SECOND PAUSE

Now to Kherson. Russian forces continue to shell and bomb the right (west) bank. Kherson Oblast Administrative and Military Governor Alexander Prokudin said Russia carried out 80 fire missions on free Kherson, firing 502 munitions, rockets, drone-delivered IEDs, and bombs, killing two and wounding seven. The VKS dropped 18 UMPK glide bombs on the territory of free Kherson. Four people were wounded near a church during a Russian mortar attack, including one man who had his leg torn off.

In Dnipropetrovsk, Russia struck a DTEK warehouse, destroying cables, transformers, and other electrical distribution equipment meant to help restore damage over the coming winter.

Quick assessment: We’re unsure if Russia has improved its geospatial capabilities, is using long-range drones with better resolution that are published publicly, or is relying on Russian agents within Ukraine. The increased accuracy of missile and drone strikes on important targets is significant.

Here is what’s happening on the Russian Front. Members of the partisan organization SKRYPACH took responsibility for a warehouse fire in Rostov-on-Don. The fire was fueled by specialized NATO technology – wooden pallets – and reportedly destroyed a warehouse with winter uniforms.

The Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, reported that up to three drones struck the aircraft factory in Smolensk that produces Kh-59 guided missiles over the weekend.

Finally, critical theaterwide events.

Russia launched 31 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, with 29 intercepted by the air force and one intercepted by the navy. An Iskanker-K ballistic cruise missile was also intercepted.

Germany announced another military aid package to Ukraine. The latest package includes,

· 14 Bandvagn 206 all-terrain vehicles

· A Biber bridge layer

· 2 combat engineering vehicles;

· 7 semi trucks with trailers

· 21 infantry mobility vehicles

· radio communication systems for Leopard tanks

· 99 satellite communication terminals

· 239 encrypted phones

· Almost 33,000 40 mm caliber ammunition for grenade launchers

During Monday’s press briefing, United States Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters, “Although the U.S. has the opportunity to continue supporting Ukraine's ability to defend itself in the near term, most of the available funding for security assistance has already been exhausted, so Congress must take action.”

In addition to the suspension of new aid, the budget that Congress passed to keep the U.S. government open for 44 more days, USAID funding has been suspended, and Foreign Military Funding programs have been discontinued.

At least through Wednesday, the House is paralyzed after Congressman Matt Gaetz called for Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy to vacate the speakership. Gaetz invoked privilege in his motion to vacate, forcing the House to address the matter within two days, tabling all other activity.

And that’s what we know.