Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 15 NOV 2022 11:45 PST - Russian Missiles Strike Poland (Patreon)

This is a very dynamic situation, and for our long-term readers and listeners, this is the scenario we have been most concerned about.

About two hours ago, two Russian cruise missiles struck the Polish town of Przewodów. The village is 9 kilometers west of the Ukrainian border and 70 kilometers north of Lviv, and 55 kilometers from the military bases at Yavoriv. It's been confirmed by Polish officials two civilians were killed, and a grain drying facility was destroyed. One missile struck adjacent to a tractor, killing the operator and leaving a large crater. The warhead, based on the available battle damage assessment, was likely fragmentation but not an S-300 antiaircraft missile used for ground attack.

Poland has scrambled its air force and is holding an emergency national security meeting. Lithuania and Estonia have pledged their support to "NATO member" Poland, as has the United States. Latvia called it a "dangerous escalation" and also pledged support. A Pentagon spokesperson said, "We have been crystal clear that we will defend every inch of NATO territory." There has not been a statement from the G20 leaders, who are still assembled in Bali.

By perfect timing, I'm sitting with a retired USAF Colonel who was a pilot and attended war college. Their hot take is this could be a catalyst to create a no-fly zone in western Ukraine or a defensive zone of 30 to 50 kilometers inside the Ukrainian border that will shoot down any Russian missiles or aircraft that enter that area - which is essentially a no-fly zone.

Our second hot take is this will likely melt away resistance to provide Ukraine with other heavy weapons and more advanced air defense and anti-missile systems.

Our third hot take is with civilians killed, this is past the point of a "strongly worded letter" and a symbolic vote of the United Nations General Assembly declaring Russia has been very naughty again.

Russian state media released a statement saying that NATO's response will be dependent on the determination of the "ownership" of the missile.

With all the hand-wringing for months over, "but they have nukes," we have consistently said that a cross-border missile incident in this exact region was the sum of all of our fears (sorry, Tom Clancy). In our immediate assessment we don't see Poland accepting, "we are very sorry" and we don't see NATO nations accepting Russia's almost certain attempt to shift the blame to Ukraine or accuse NATO of a false flag to justify entering the war. We would like to remind you that Kremlin taking points to the Russian public include they are already in a direct shooting war with NATO, and have said this for months.

Western equity markets are shrugging off the attack at this time. No, you don't not need to start digging a backyard bunker.