Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-2-22 10:45 PDT - Russia Has Lost 600 Main Battle Tanks (Patreon)

According to the Oryx Database, Russia has lost 600 tanks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War on February 24. These are visually confirmed losses using social intelligence to geolocate, remove duplicates, and identify the nation of origin. Because of the methodology applied, actual losses are higher - there isn't visual documentation of each main battle tank (MBT) destroyed.

ASSESSMENT: We estimated actual losses are between 825 to 900 MBTs.

At the start of the war, Russia had almost 3,000 MBTs in service. The Russian Ministry of Defense has claimed it has as many as 11,000 tanks in reserve, but the actual number is likely much lower. The true number is likely closer to 7,000 to 8,000, and of those, 60% could be pressed back into service with reconditioning. The other 40% have been neglected, raided for parts, or stripped of vital parts due to corruption and theft. A majority of the reserve fleet are T-72 variants, which haven't performed well in Ukraine.

Using visual confirmation only, Russia has lost 20% of its entire active MBT fleet, including 35% of all T-72 tanks. 

A Batallion Tactical Group could have 30 tanks assigned to it. Configurations of BTGs vary depending on the group's mission. The confirmed loss of 600 tanks would be equivalent to 20 BTGs having armor eliminated - total destruction.

Losses aren't spread out that way and are likely across many BTGs. A BTG with 30 MBTs that lost 10 of them, would have significantly diminished combat power. 

But it gets worse for Russia. Ukraine has lost 147 MBTs since the start of the war using the same technique. 

ASSESSMENT: We estimated actual losses are between 200 to 275 MBTs.

Ukraine has captured 222 Russian tanks (visually confirmed) and just received 232 upgraded T-72s from the Polish military on April 30. The Czech Republic also sent an undisclosed number of T-72s to Ukraine last month. 

While Russia has lost 20% of its entire tank force (and likely more), Ukraine has had a net gain of MBTs. Currently, Ukraine has the second-largest active tank force in Europe - second only to Russia.