Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-2-22 12:30 PDT - Major Ukrainian Counteroffensive (Patreon)

Normally, we wait for better confirmation than what we have, but Pro-Russian accounts on Telegram are in full meltdown over the Ukrainian counteroffensive that started last week north and east of Kharkiv city. The Pentagon has stated Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 40 kilometers from Kharkiv, which adds weight to the reports coming out of Russia.

We are seeing numerous reports that Russian forces collapsed east of Kharkiv. The Pentagon is reporting that Staryi Saltiv has been liberated, Ukrainian forces secured the bridge over the river, and are advancing on Zarichne. Historically, the Pentagon has been biased toward under-reporting Ukrainian progress, so this adds a lot of weight to the information coming in as I type this.

By our assessment Pischane, Veyka Babka, and Molodova are liberated, Staryi Saltiv is contested pending additional confirmation, and Zarichne is contested. The Siverskyi Donets River serves as a natural boundary to hold this territory for Ukrainian forces.

ASSESSMENT: Three points - this won't provide artillery relief for the northern half of Kharkiv, which is still within range of Russian forces to the north of the city. 

We have written in our Situation Reports that the continued targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure while the offensive started to stall out and munitions remain in short supply, was a waste of combat resources. 

It appears that the Phase 2 offensive reached an apex last week and the Russian military forces within Ukraine are now combat ineffective.