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What volume is required for a product to be "real"? (Die Shrink Telegrams) (Patreon)

Published:
2022-02-07 23:00:35
Imported:
2022-04

Content

Tom & Dan have been dancing around having this discussion directly, but we now feel it's time - when is a product "real"? 

By all accounts so far, the RTX 3090 Ti is going to have record-setting low availability, while the 6950 XT is likely to have about the volume you would expect for a highly binned halo product - is it honestly fair to compare the 3090 Ti to the 6950 XT?

Same for the 3050 - almost none were shipped, and yet you have comparisons between the 3050 and cards with literally over 10x the availability!

Can Nvidia or AMD launch 10 Golden Samples, and actually claim they have the crown?


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Comments

Anonymous

Honestly if they can get a card in the hands of a bunch of reviewers and make just a few available for purchase via well known retailers around the globe, they have every right to claim it's a real product.

Anonymous

In my opinion the answer is really simple. A product is "real", if you can buy its AIB versions at most retailers anytime for 150% MSRP at most, with 120% MSRP for the basic models. Production volumes should fit to the demands.

Xavbeat03

You can compare the two graphics cards if reviewers can actually get their hands on them, however, I believe it is important to note that supply might be nonexistent if it likely is. Supply is a feature of a graphics card launch just as much as price to performance is.

Anonymous

I'm in the UK - on overclockers.co.uk (a well known UK online retailer) I can see 6500XTs from £199 and there is decent availability and has been every time I've looked in the last week or two (10+ in stock on several models). The 3050 on the other hand has not a single model in stock. Nor do other major online/physical stores such as scan.co.uk - so I would say the 3050 is certainly not a "real product" at this point (a quick check on Scan shows zero availability of 3060ti or 3050 models and a handful of 3060 models with prices from £505 to £595 - overclockers does have some 3060ti models, from £700. Both have RX6600 and RX6600XT from roughly £400 to £520)

Durmij

Going to base my answer off of some napkin math. I work in a store in a city with a population of one million. If I sell one unit per business day for an entire quarter, thirteen weeks, that's 65 units. Extrapolating that ratio onto world population, we get 500,500 units. The number seems big on paper, out of context, but one unit per business day per million people for a quarter, across all AIBs, is such a pathetically low target that I feel safe calling it the bare minimum.

Jen-Hsun Huang

It needs to be usable in my kitchen PC. The 3090 tie is a beast, and helps cook my food!

Anonymous

I think all the products are real enough, they buy tons of wafers and they make products. I think the distributors like Newegg, Amazon or whatever where the problem to spread the cards among the end users fail. If most of us had 1 card each, we would or should not be jaited if a miner, or a company bought a bulk of 100 cards right? As a example. In Norway the main distributor has a option to log in with a two factor authentication. This is tied to your phonenumber and you as a person. So If they really wanted to give as many as possible one card each. They could make you sign in with this app, if you want to put a GPU in the basket. (If you work at komplett.no and can explain that this is completely wrong) it would be cool 😎 to know why

Anonymous

Tom and Dan. I like the neuances you guys bring that enlighten the discussions. Is 3090 and 6950 the same market? The only reasons I see to compare these two is: 1.That it is the best products from two different companies. 2.They have similar performance in gaming. We know the price is very different. But is not also the features and maybe some usecases also? I while back you had someone one, that talked about how 24 gb of ram was good for their type of work. Even if it was not a professional card. Think it was the first ai guy...? So maybe more people are getting 3090 as a professional option? In Norway the price for a 3080/3080ti tends to be 100usd cheaper then the 6900 (1600uds) give or take a 100. So at that would be my comparison. 3090 is usually been about a thousand more, so to me It's not the same. But if I were to buy in that price point I would also consider hashrate as a way to get some money back from the damn thing And I would probably forget the efficiency part of the math. Cheers

Timo H

Hi Tom and Dan, considering pc computing is now daily life almost like toilet paper and market is already global, ie every country and city in world has at least tablet or smartphone, so Id put rough number of 1million products for worldwide launch to count. Afterall dgpu market alone was ~46m for amd+nvidia combined 2021. As footnote, 6900xt/6900xt ultimate etc smaller variants and evga black/ftw, Id consider in that same 1M number as long as it has same basic technical specs of die and vram. You wouldnt advertise a movie in a country with no distribution, would you?

Timo H
>>77473293

I guess you know why... it is easier to sell to your "VIP company client" that 100 gpus and see that buyer in person than deal with thousands of angry gamers via customer service or email or phone. BTW I tried putting rx 6600 in basket from komplett.se but it requires swedish phone number so I cant order it with Finnish phone number. What a bummer. komplett.fi is closed now.... I wonder if they share same drops and stock among norwegian and swedish customers or do norwegian or swedish get special treatment. So EU membership/trade union isnt as great [for regular person] as in US and driving across state border to other BB or MC store.

TheBestRTaken

Hello Tom and Dan. For a product to be considered launched I would say there have to be at least 1k (that a very minimal run amount of a product and technically should be more) pieces to distribution or major chains with a guaranteed monthly follow-up volume or it isn't launched except as samples (usually to review and media). For investor protection, the FTC should have a definition so some scum bag CEO doesn't falsely announce releases of products just to drive stock values. Does your legal friend have any comment on that?