J1 League Preview - GW423 - FREE TO ALL/SAMPLE (Patreon)
Content
Intro
Full schedule of games this weekend with 6 games on Saturday and 3 on Sunday
Title Race - 3 Games to go!
- Kobe dropped points to Shonan opening the door to YFM who are now 2 points behind
- Urawa are in the driving seat to get third place (and the ACL spot) but running out steam
Relegation Battle
- Shonan unlucky not to beat Kobe though with YFC losing increase the gap to 2 points
- Kashiwa unable to beat 10 man Kawasaki and also picked up a point
- If points level, it goes down to GD so realistically YFC have it all to do!
Suspensions
Predicted Lineups
Sapporo vs Hiroshima
Sapporo
- Just 1 win in their last 5 games.
- Striker Ogashiwa back in full training should start. Suga also in training.
- There are a number of midfielders available including Fukumori and Kobayashi, Baba
- Hints manager will experiment a little now team safe from relegation.
- Without a clean sheet in their last 7 games
Hiroshima
- 4th in table and in great form with 4 wins in last 6 games
- Douglas Vieira is suspended. Marcos Junior and Sotiriou in full training and pushing for starts
- If they do start, could see Notsuda make way for tactical reasons.
- Sasaki in partial training on the 7th Nov and a risk.
Prediction
Sapporo looked much better in their last game and tend to improve when the weather gets cooler. Both teams play very open football with 3 at the back, I expect a fun game and have Hiroshima favorite's to win with both teams scoring.
Shonan vs Nagoya
Shonan
- Tomii, Onose and Tariq all injured and out
- SBK in training and should start in nets
- Team are in excellent form and tightened up at the back, conceeding just 5 goals in their last 6 games including 3 clean sheets.
Nagoya
- In poor form and their pursuit for 3rd spot is faltering
- Conceded late to 10 man Sagan in a devastating draw.
- Struggling to create chances since Mateus left :(
- Morishima, Uchida and Maeda all fighting for a starting spot
- Unbeaten against Shonan in their last 7 meetings.
Prediction
Shonan have a great opportunity to get a win here. I see it being a low scoring game with Belmare sneaking it.
Niigata vs FC Tokyo
Niigata
- In excellent form and unbeaten in 6 league games.
- Takagi and Horigome are doubts. Horigome is back in training and wanting to start. Takagi the bigger risk of starting imo
- Manager is changing up the CBs in particular alot, v hard to predict!
FC Tokyo
- Inconsistent form with 2Ws and 3 Ls in last 5 games.
- Trevisan and Nakagawa are suspended
- Kimoto and Tawaratsumida likely come up. Kimura also an option at CB
- Nothing to play for and manager has hinted he may try out some youth eg Kumata. Unclear if from the bench or start
- Brandon should continue in nets
Prediction
Two teams both playing for nothing. Niigata have the edge based on current form especially at home. I see them winning in a close game.
Kashima vs Kashiwa
Kashima
- Just 1 win in last 5 as top 3 challenge falters.
- Shibasaki is injured and out for rest of season
- Anzai seen in training seemingly with no problem
- Chinen in training, unclear if fit to start as hes been struggling with injury recovery for a while.
- Team has the most clean sheets this with 15 including 9 at home (60%) of games.
Kashiwa
- 3rd bottom though in OK form
- Stable team and similar team to last game expected with no known new injuries.
- Drew 1-1 with Kawsaki with Hosoya in particular guilty of missing chances
Prediction
Kashima at home are very hard to break down. I see this being a low scoring draw.
Gamba Osaka vs Fukuoka
Gamba
- Gamba is awful form with no wins in 6 games and only scoring 2 goals during that time.
- Midfielders Lavi and Dawhan suspended
- Jebali a doubt and training seperately. Suzuki is the running to play after a long time out
- Usami should start, im not sure which position given the midfield suspensions. Eg alano in mid and Usami on win is possible.
Fukuoka
- Confidence is high after winning the league cup last week
- DF Grolli is suspended for this game
- Otherwise team is pretty stable and no similar team expected
Prediction
Gamba have been playing very poorly and with two key midfielders out, I see limited reason for this to change. Fukuoka are playing very clincialy and I see them winning.
Sagan vs Yokohama FC
Sagan
- Team are midtable and not playing for anything
- DF Yamazaki is suspended
- Team has been relatively consistent this season in their lineups. No indication of experimenting from manager but is a possibility.
- Unbeaten in their last 5 games vs YFC
Yokohama FC
- Bottom of the table and at risk of relegation.
- Yamashita a big doubt still, limited info available.
- Gabriel also close to full fitness. Could make bench here
Prediction
YFC are fighting for their lives and running out of games. This game presents a chance to get something however Sagan are very tough team. I see this game being a draw.
Kawasaki vs Kyoto
Kawasaki
- Midtable and playing for nothing in the league
- Played on Tuesday in their ACL win
- Ominami, Sasaki are out injured. Kurumaya in full training and may feature.
- Tono is suspended for this game
- Could see some changes eg Segawa, Miyashiro, Gomis fighting for starts. Depends on condition of players after ACL game which is unclear at the mo.
Kyoto
- In poor form with 3 losses in a row.
- Ota started in nets last game. Gu not seen in training. Wakahara also a possibility, unclear.
- Toyokawa returns from suspension and should start
- Kyoto are good as safe so could see some rotation/testing of youth players.
Prediction
Kawasakis performances in recent weeks have been improving. Even though they will be slightly fatigued after the ACL game on Tuesday, I see them winning comfortably here.
YFM vs Cerezo
YFM
- 2nd in the table and just 2 points off top spot
- Rotated heavily in their ACL win
- Expected to return to their strongest available lineup.
- Eduardo is fit and fine to start afaik. Kamijima is most likely to partner him
Cerezo
- Just 1 win in last 5 games. Outside chance of 3rd spot
- Yamanaka back to full fitness and likely starts
- Shibayama started last game. Manager has said he wants to test out new combos including youth. Okuno at risk of being benched again
- Unbeaten in their last 4 meetings against YFM
Prediction
Cerezo are setup well for an attacking team like YFM, I see this being a tight and heavy scoring game with YFM winning.
Urawa vs Kobe
Urawa
- 3rd in the table and unbeaten in 7 league games
- Lost twice in cup competition during the last week. Team looking fatigued
- Akimoto is suspended and Sakai injured. Ogiwara and Ohata fav to start as wingbacks.
- Scholz was rested and should return. The two CBs and Ito especially making more mistakes as usual due to fatigue/number of games.
- Have conceeded the least goals of any team at home this season.
Kobe
- Top of the table and vying for their first ever league title
- Yamaguchi seen in training and should start
- Sasaki also a slight doubt. Rest of team look stable.
- Havent kept a clean sheet vs Urawa in their last 9 meetings.
Prediction
Tough game for Kobe and will really test their title ambitions. Urawa are playing tired and their confidence will be low. I see this being a low scoring draw.
Probabilities
Source: https://twitter.com/keirin_en
Stacks
Def
- Kawasaki
- Fukuoka (Gamba not scoring many)
- Kashima Antlers
Attack
- Hiroshima
- YFM
Full Team
- YFM
- Kawasaki (though rotation risk here)
Finish
I hope you found this useful!
If I see anything important that breaks before the deadline, I will post on Discord.
If you have any feedback or queries, just give me a shout.
Enjoy the games and good luck!