GW 477 J1 League Predicted Lineups - FINAL (Patreon)
Content
Intro
Eeek - lots of DNP chaos last GW! Rotation was expected but lots of surprises (for me) including what im assuming were last minute injuries/sickess
We go again! Another quick turnover between matches with all teams playing this wkend.
There are 2 games on Sat and 8 on Sunday. The extra day rest will help teams recover but also means we wont get some teams news before the deadline.
Teams that play on Sat are also an increased risk of rotation as alluded to by the Nagoya manager today due to fatigue.
League Table
The top 3 all won their respective games. Kobe put in a solid performance in a close game vs Fukuoka. Machida scored in injury time to sneak a win vs Cerezo and Antlers put in the performance of the GW with a comprehensive 3-1 away win vs Hiroshima.
Hiroshima surprisingly put in a very tired performance. They were were very poor and have slid down to 9th in the table (though with a game in hand)
At the bottom of the table, Sagan Tosu won their second game of the week with a 5-2 demolition of Kawasaki. Frontale poor season continues and they will v likely ring the changes next game/hard to predict.
Sapporo got a decent 1-0 win and could have won by more. Their performance have been improving in recent weeks. Kyoto again showed flashes of quality but were a mess at the back this time losing 3-0 to Urawa and they are now stranded at the bottom of the table
Fixtures
The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:
Main Points
Api (Kyoto), Fukuda (Shonan) and Hatano (FC Tokyo) are suspended
Injury news at Niigata- Miyamoto out for 3 months. Takagi out for 6 wks
This is the 3rd game for all teams inside a week. We need to calculate risk again based on 1) important of match 2) who played last game and how many mins 3) Other options available
YFM rotated last game and again default thinking is they protect their main team for the ACL final next week. Some players like Elber, Hatanaka, Eduardo have injuries though even if fit, I dont expect them to start
Popp was surprisingly missing. Atm no info on it though I expect something before deadline.
Gustafson (Urawa) had a slight hip injury, was only disclosed after the game.
Araki and Matsuki started on bench last game. Matsuki a surprise though this means both more likely to start upcoming GW
Same can be said for Fernandes and Ceara and Cerezo.
Kawasaki likely change things up including a 50/50 chance that JSR returns. Very unstable season for them
Marcos Junior did well after coming on as sub last game. Should start nxt game as one of the few shining lights for Hiroshima
Kobe are the form team with 6 wins from their last 7 including 4 on the bounce.
Antlers have won 4 of their last 5. However not kept a CS in last 6 games.
Tokyo Verdy are unbeaten in 12 games and have clean sheets in 4 of their last 6.
Kyoto have lost 4 in row and 7 of their last 8 games. In dire form.
Kashiwa and Niigata havent kept a clean sheet in their last 6 games.
Predicted Lineups
Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)
When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.
I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.
Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.
Fukuoka vs Cerezo
Fukuoka
Lost to Kobe on Wednesday
Rotated heavily. Keeper changed again! Another coinflip this GW with Murakami slight fav.
Mae returns from suspension. Zahedi, Konno, Iwasaki etc should return
Cerezo
In poor form. Winless in 6 and lost 3 games in a row.
Injury problems at the back. Noborizato and Makuma both out with the former being a long term injury
Funaki only natural LB remaining. Youngster Okuda did well at RB. Toriumi/Nishio/Hubner all fighting for CB spots. Nishio did well last game imo.
Surprisingly had Fernandes and Ceara on the bench. Both should return.
Kagawa also in contention. Has been in poor form so Shibayama again possible. Also Kagawa wasnt in squad last game so need to check his condition.
Confidence low at club. Could see something funky from the manager but this setup most likely.
Sagan vs Nagoya
Sagan
Back to back wins. Impressive 5-2 win vs Frontale
Ryan in form and looking v dangerous.
Kawahara doing v well too. Great card in general as creates chances.
Naganuma moved to LB. Yokohama doing well LW. Should continue.
Kikuchi has suspected concussion and assumed out.
Nagoya
Impressive 3-1 win vs FC Tokyo. Junker returned to starting X11 with a hat trick.
Still not 100% fit but should start. Ha Chang Rae had a stomach issue, no update yet so a slight risk
With the busy schedule, manager is changing up wingback esp eg Izumi/Nakayama/Uchida all swapping around.
Manager specifically complained about having to play on Saturday and travel again so rotation risk increases
Kyoto vs Hiroshima
Kyoto
4 losses in a row. Lost 8 out of last 9
Toyokawa and Yamasaki not seen in training. Likely undisclosed injury
Api suspended for 2 games. Matsuda likely comes in but formation change also possible.
Big turnover risk, mainly due to poor form.
Hiroshima
No win in 6 games. Back to back home losses.
Ohashi and Kawamura returned to lineup last game.
Lost 3-1 to Antlers last game. Very tired looking performance. Manager changed things at half time.
Risk of changes in setup including mid/fwd. Can have knock on effects. I hope MJ starts as he looked good. Manager has been reluctant in starting him with Mitsuta .
Machida vs Tokyo Verdy
Machida
Beat Cerezo with a last min goal. 2nd in the table and in good form
Dresevic missing from squad. Unclear if due to foreign quota or injury.
Lots of options upfront. In general Oh Se Hun is a big part of the Machida play so should start.
Tokyo Verdy
Unbeaten in 12 games.
Miki rested last game, should start.
Taniguchi unused sub last game, they got clean sheet so could be eased back from bench
Iwata vs Urawa
Iwata
In poor form, lost 3 games in a row.
Graca went off with injury last game. Doubt here. Ito can play instead.
Germain (top scorer in league) out til August. Iwata trying different options. Ishida likely to come back
Players like Jose and Fujiwara pushing for starts
Kawashima missed last 2 games. Limited new available so assumed out.
Urawa
3 wins in a row. Impressive 3-0 win vs Kyoto on Wednesday
Still waiting on training news. Atm Gustafsson condition unclear, only a minor knock. If out then likely see same lineup as last game.
Yasui did very well and got lots of plaudits. Ishihara could continue too though Sakai back to fitness and got a few mins last game.
Kashima vs Kobe
Highly impressive win vs Hiroshima. 4 wins in last 5.
Some rotation risk in midfield with plenty of options including Fujii, Higuchi, Matsumura, Doi etc. However same lineup as last wk most likely.
Suzuki looked fine to me and no injury imo.
Shibasaki back in full training finally. Still didnt make the bench so have to wait for that first
Kobe
4 wins in a row and top of the table.
LB spot up in the air. Hatsuse vs Honda hard to call. Hatsuse did well last game, Honda better defensively.
Lots of competition in LW eg Yuruki vs Sasaki/Patric. Sasaki in better condition to start imo.
Outside Saito, full squad available to pick from.
FC Tokyo vs YFM
FC Tokyo
Lost 3-1 to Nagoya. Araki and Matsuki were benched.
Both should start here. Tricky to know with confidence the setup/balance of side with so many mids and combos available.
Hatano suspended again and Brandon to continue.
Trevisan was an unused sub last game. Noise is he should return
Endo back in training, this is too early for him.
YFM
Lost on Wednesday with rotated side. ACL second leg final next week with team flying out to UAE early nxt week
Eduardo, Uenaka, Hatanaka and Elber all are not fully fit or injured. Atm I dont expect any of these to start
No info on Popp. Again huge risk atm.
Saneto started at back last week but was poor. Watananbe fav to play.
Hoping for more team news before deadline esp training pics/video
Gamba vs Kawasaki
Gamba
3 cleansheets in a row including 0-0 vs Tokyo Verdy on Wednesday.
Kishimoto went off with an injury and atm condition unclear.
Welton in full training and should start. Dawhan likely to replace Lavi.
Alano and Matsuda out with injuries.
Kawasaki
Awful performance in humbling 5-2 loss to Sagan.
Gomis surprisingly missing. Waiting on news.
High risk of changes across the board here. JSR is my slight fav to start but very hard to predict setup for this game.
Manager has been changing things alot of defeats like last weeks this season.
Shonan vs Niigata
Shonan
Unlucky to lose to Kashiwa in last min.
Striker Fukuda got a red and suspended.
Tanaka returns in midfield. Hata did great last game, should continue.
Lots of turnover options including Yamada, Sugioka, Okuno etc.
Niigata
Beat YFM on Wednesday to halt losing streak
Takagi and Miyomoto confirmed out injured.
Hasegawa and Fitzerald both risks after injuries last game.
Matsuda returns after not being available last game. Is pref RW in general
Hoshi played leftback last game. Can play mid too. Okumura did well in first start but could return to bench.
Kashiwa vs Sapporo
Kashiwa
Beat Shonan 2-1 with last min goal from Hosoya
Kinoshita again scored from the bench. Could start but tbh has been v effective from bench!
A few options in mid with Shimamura/Shirai and Toshima fighting for spots
Takamine remains injured and out
Sapporo
Off the bottom of the table after 1-0 win vs Iwata. Could have scored more.
Okamura and Miyazawa returned which was huge.
Asano is a slight doubt after picking up a knock. Seen in training but unclear if 100% fit atm
Rest of lineup should remain the same.
SO5 Analysis
Best xG - Hiroshima (1.75xG, Kashiwa 1.6xG)
Best CS - Machida (45% CS, Hiroshima - 47%)
Best Stack - Hiroshima
On paper, Hiroshima have the best match up again a Kyoto side without a home win this season and in dire form. Saying that Hiroshima also are in poor form. I do still like this fixture but feel the odds are too generous for Hiroshima. Marcos Junior in particular can shine here esp against a makeshift Kyoto defense.
Urawa have started to get going and face Iwata who are in bad form and without their main striker. This looks good for Urawa stacks again.
Kashiwa have a nice fixture against Sapporo. Sapporo are improving but Kashiwa with Hosoya and Savio have big scoring potential.
Kashima face Kobe in a battle between 1st and 3rd. I expect it be a very close game with a draw/0-0 stalemate also a distinct possibility. Kashima pleasantly surprised me with a highly charged win vs Hiroshima. Suzuki is getting into his stride with Nago and Morooka chipping in too.
YFM are very hard to use in any priority division. Not only do they have the ACL coming up but lots of injuries/uncertain situations with players like Eduardo, Popp, Hatanaka etc.
Finish
I will post any updates that happen on Discord Some press conferences happening now though some of Sunday game arent expected till tomorrow. Any questions, just give me a shout!