GW 477 J1 League Predicted Lineups - DRAFT (Patreon)

Intro

Eeek - lots of DNP chaos last GW! Rotation was expected but lots of surprises (for me) including what im assuming were last minute injuries/sickess

We go again! Another quick turnover between matches with all teams playing this wkend.

There are 2 games on Sat and 8 on Sunday. The extra day rest will help teams recover but also means we wont get some teams news before the deadline

Please note that as teams played yesterday, theres v little news available. This post will give an overview of the main things known from suspensions and injuries and early thoughts!

League Table

The top 3 all won their respective games. Kobe put in a solid performance in a close game vs Fukuoka. Machida scored in injury time to sneak a win vs Cerezo and Antlers put in the performance of the GW with a comprehensive 3-1 away win vs Hiroshima.

Hiroshima surprisingly put in a very tired performance. They were were very poor and have slid down to 9th in the table (though with a game in hand)

At the bottom of the table, Sagan Tosu won their second game of the week with a 5-2 demolition of Kawasaki. Frontale poor season continues and they will v likely ring the changes next game/hard to predict.

Sapporo got a decent 1-0 win and could have won by more. Their performance have been improving in recent weeks. Kyoto again showed flashes of quality but were a mess at the back this time losing 3-0 to Urawa and they are now stranded at the bottom of the table

Fixtures

The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:

Main Points

• Api (Kyoto), Fukuda (Shonan) and Hatano (FC Tokyo) are suspended

• Injury news at Niigata- Miyamoto out for 3 months. Takagi out for 6 wks

• This is the 3rd game for all teams inside a week. We need to calculate risk again based on 1) important of match 2) who played last game and how many mins 3) Other options available

• YFM rotated last game and again default thinking is they protect their main team for the ACL final next week. Some players like Elber, Hatanaka, Eduardo have injuries though even if fit, I dont expect them to start

• Popp was surprisingly missing. Atm no info on it though I expect something before deadline.

• Gustafson (Urawa) had a slight hip injury, was only disclosed after the game.

• Araki and Matsuki started on bench last game. Matsuki a surprise though this means both more likely to start upcoming GW

• Same can be said for Fernandes and Ceara and Cerezo.

• Kawasaki likely change things up including a 50/50 chance that JSR returns. Very unstable season for them

• Marcos Junior did well after coming on as sub last game. Should start nxt game as one of the few shining lights for Hiroshima

• Kobe are the form team with 6 wins from their last 7 including 4 on the bounce.

• Antlers have won 4 of their last 5. However not kept a CS in last 6 games.

• Tokyo Verdy are unbeaten in 12 games and have clean sheets in 4 of their last 6.

• Kyoto have lost 4 in row and 7 of their last 8 games. In dire form.

• Kashiwa and Niigata havent kept a clean sheet in their last 6 games.

SO5

Best xG - Hiroshima (1.75xG, Kashiwa 1.6xG)

Best CS - Machida (45% CS, Hiroshima - 47%)

Best Stack - Hiroshima

On paper, Hiroshima have the best match up again a Kyoto side without a home win this season and in dire form. Saying that Hiroshima also are in poor form. I do still like this fixture but feel the odds are too generous for Hiroshima. Marcos Junior in particular can shine here esp against a makeshift Kyoto defense.

Urawa have started to get going and face Iwata who are in bad form and without their main striker. This looks good for Urawa stacks again.

Kashiwa have a nice fixture against Sapporo. Sapporo are improving but Kashiwa with Hosoya and Savio have big scoring potential.

Kashima face Kobe in a battle between 1st and 3rd. I expect it be a very close game with a draw/0-0 stalemate also a distinct possibility. Kashima pleasantly surprised me with a highly charged win vs Hiroshima. Suzuki is getting into his stride with Nago and Morooka chipping in too.

YFM are very hard to use in any priority division. Not only do they have the ACL coming up but lots of injuries/uncertain situations with players like Eduardo, Popp, Hatanaka etc.

Predicted Lineups

These will be done tomorrow and could be a little later than normal (4/5 hrs before deadline) depending on when training/teams news drops.

On Discord, I have a running channel where I will be putting info:

To get access, make sure your Patreon is connected to Discord. You will then get automatic access in the Patreon

Instructions here and Patreon here