7/11 recap + 7/12 slate (Patreon)

Recap:

1-3. -1.2u on half units. 

First day with the new system is messy but I do really like this over how things used to be. Being honest I was excited more about the UCL games today than the ones tomorrow, so looking to stay away from UCL and picking up other matches! 

Gold Play

Patronato v Botafogo. Botafogo ML. -135 (MGM IN). Copa Sudamericana 6pm ET. 

- If you've never heard of Patronato Parana I do not blame you. This is an Argentinian side that plays in the NAcional Primera, which is the second tier of Argentinian footy. This is a team that is an entire division below all the awful Argentinian squads we've watched so far this summer. The reason the line currently isn't steeper as they play literally the best team in Brazil in Botafogo is because this is a 2 leg competition, and we could see Botafogo rotate players here. The thing is, even if Botafogo does rest some talent and play 2nd string, their second string should wipe the floor with Patronato. I'm looking at 1-0/2-0/3-0 victory for Botafogo here, and if you want ot play the 1.5 TT at even money I think that's a fine look! But ML is my favorite play by far tomorrow. No such thing as a lock but I like this play a weird amount and expect this line to move close to -175 before kickoff, and if they go full starters closer to -220

**ADDITIONAL STATS PULLED FROM FOOTBALLWHISPERS.COM**

• Botafogo have won five of their last six fixtures in all competitions.

• Botafogo are unbeaten in six previous Copa Sudamericana matches this term.

• Patronato have lost four of their six continental fixtures this season.

• Botafogo have won each of their last three away assignments in league and cup.

• Patronato conceded seven goals in their last three continental fixtures.

• Botafogo have scored at least twice in three of their six Copa Sudamericana matches this term.

• Botafogo notched twice in each of their last two assignments.

Silver Play

New England Revolution v Atlanta United. BTTS + Over 2.5 goals. +105 7:30pm ET. MLS (PointsBet IN)

- New England is 7-3-0 at home so far this season, having scored in every home game during as well. They are in decent form attacking but defensively are struggling with BTTS + Over 2.5 now hitting in 5 games straight, with the score lines of 3-1, 3-1, 2-1, 2-2 and 2-1. Atlanta United still has one of the highest BTTS rate in MLS even though their last three games all saw BTTS NO hitting. Even though they did just clean sheet Montreal and Philadelphia, I don't think they have it in them to beat New England to nil here!   

Bronze Play

Jamaica v Mexico. BTTS +105. Gold Cup 10pm ET (Fanduel IN)

I hate that I'm doing a Gold Cup bet at all here because this is a shite competition with most teams barely even trying here, and almost no squads here are actually bringing their best players....however...Ian gave this pick out on StoppageTime today and I agree with his reasoning enough to play it as  a Bronze play during a pretty slow day. Jamaica brought their best starting XI including 5 European league players, and while they are exhausted, they've looked good drawing agianst USA and dominating their other group matches. Michael Antonio left injured last game but reports are saying he'll be back for this matchup. Mexico has looked sloppy, losing to Qatar (I legit think there was foul play here) and conceding to Haiti. I think this game could very well end 1-1 or 2-2 kind of game and it's worth a stab for plus odds! 

Parlay. Emperor Cup. +700

Yokohama Marinos v Machida Zelvia. Yokohama ML 5:30am ET

Kashima Antlers v Ventforet Kofu. Kashima ML 6am ET 

Vissel Kobe v Jubilo Iwata. Vissel ML 6am ET 

Kawasaki Frontale v Mito Hollyhock. Kawasaki ML 6am ET 

- The Emperor Cup isn't the most prestigious competition but it is still the chance for a trophy and extra funding. A J1 side has won every time since 2004 with the exception of last year. I'm basically just taking 4 strong J1 sides to beat out a J2 side opponent. All of these teams are probably going to rest at least 3-5 of their starters so this is just a for fun bet for the early morning!