Late Article Leans + More Stat Packs (Patreon)

Full transparency. I had a show pick and an article for today. The new system starts tomorrow, but I was asked to fill in for these picks for other cappers very last minute so while I like the plays, I overall didn't love the slate today and would have been fine skipping today. I did still do write-ups and research and do like these picks, but I would still be very careful for these games because these are normally leagues I don't love. 

I'm still including them because I don't want these to hit and people on Twitter to be like "hell yeah we cashed" and y'all not to know about it! But I'm going .5u on each play and this is the last day till the new system starts tomorrow! I'd treat these as leans! Tonight at 9pm we'll be rocking all the best picks for tomorrow! 

Here they are if you want to tail! Also I bet Adolis Garcia to win the derby at +650. I have no reason to back that up just vibes

Vila Nova v Vitoria. BTTS NO + Under 3.5 goals. -120. 7pm ET. Brazil Serie B. .5u

**I made this pick on a show today because I was asked to find a pick and to be honest, I didn't love the slate but did see statistical value here. Vila Nova is my least favorite team on earth to bet on because they play for 1-0 wins which is my least favorite score. Vila Nova's goalie and back line are absolute DOGS!! They have played 15 games this season and have only conceded 5 times. That's a crazy number. While they last game they played did hit BTTS, they've only hit BTTS once in their last 10 games. Teams get very frustrated playing Vila Nova because they can't break their backline, which has caused teams to get red cards in 4/10 games against Vila as well. Vitoria started the season really hot but have been falling off. They also have good defense, only conceded 12 in 15, but more importantly they're struggling to score here. Vitoria hasn't scored in 3/5 games and 2/3 games on the road. This one could be 0-0/1-0 and I don't love goals here.**

BOCA JUNIORS VS. CA HURACAN | 7/10 | 6:30 p.m. ET

• Boca Juniors ML -110 .5u
• Boca Juniors over 1.5 TT +145. .5u

Argentine Primera Division Matchday 24 features a struggling Boca Juniors side hosting a Huracan side facing even tougher times. Both teams are not living up to expectations. Boca Juniors won the league last season, while Huracan finished fourth. Both clubs are now sitting in 11th and 27th place, respectively. This has been a bizarre season across the league, as a lot of the heavy hitters haven't been able to find stable footing. Huracan's total collapse makes it a tricky team to bet on. Let's see if we can still find some value here!

Boca Juniors Form

At this time last year, Boca Juniors were on top of the world. The team finished the 2022 season ahead of Racing Club, River Plate, and the rest of the league. The squad finished top of the table with a record of 16-4-7, scoring 34 goals and conceding 28 while accumulating 52 points. Now this season, 27 games in, Boca have only found a disappointing 9 wins with only four games left. They've done a solid job defensively, but have struggled to find their attacking form, averaging just barely over one goal scored per game with 25 in total. The Juniors are led by what should be an impressive attack, featuring Uruguayan striker Miguel Merentiel and Martin Payero, but even with them it seems as if they're missing the spark that made them so devastating last season. I expect to see them struggle once again this week.

Huracan Form

While the fall from first place last 11th this season is pretty shambolic for the hosts, it's not anywhere near as wild as the collapse by Huracan this season. Huracan finished last season third on the Argentine Primera Division table with the third most wins in the entire league, and more impressive, the fewest losses. Huracan finished the season 12-11-4, becoming a bit of a draw specialist as they were almost impenetrable when playing at home. The team that managed to find 35 goals while conceding the second fewest= in the league at 21 over their 27 games, were a brutal matchup for any team.

From fourth to 27th, this team has completely fallen apart. Plagued by a series of injuries and transfers, the club's season started off bleak and they've struggled to find their footing ever since. While Huracan has only picked up single win in their last 14 matches, they've also been an annoying team to bet on. This team is all about the Unders. Under 2.5 goals has hit in nine of their last ten matches, with six of the 10 actually seeing Under 1.5 goals go off. This is a team that doesn't score, but still plays surprisingly good defense, so expect a slow, low-scoring, physical affair when they take the pitch.

UCL Stat Packs:

Raków Częstochowa v Flora Tallinn

- Rakow are the single biggest favorite out of any of the UCL teams playing tomorrow, and rightfully so. Not only have they been playing incredibly well in the Ekstraklasa winning the league last year over rivals Legia Warszawa, but they've been scoring like mad lately. 

- Rakow have been actively playing friendlies against good clubs like Slavia Praha and U Cluj, so they're staying active and won't deal with rust coming back to play. 

- Rakow at home is DEVASTATING. They didn't lose a single home game last season in league play and have had no problem scoring at home as of late either.

- Rakow is dealing with injuries which is a dilemma. They'll be without their best defender Adnan Kovacevic and one of their best defensive mids Ivan Lopez. Even though they're huge favorites this is a significant deal and the backups for this squad are nowhere near the first squad level.

- Flora Tallin plays in the Estonian Meistriliiga where they are currently in the middle of their season. They had to play a game on July 7th where they did rest players for this match. This game is infinitely more important than anything else for them. 

- While Flora is significantly worse on paper, they are more match fit and have no issues with their starting 11 or significant injuries. 

- Polish injuries will still be there next week in the second match, so Tallinn could very well play this extremely slow and defensive, knowing if they can keep this match low scoring and to the chance they have a chance at a big upset in the second leg. 

** Leans. Under 2.5 goals. Tallinn +1.5 goal on the spread**

Hamrun v Maccabi Haifa 

- Be careful here because this is one of those games where stats can make this sound much closer than It will be. For example, Hamrun have kept a clean sheet 6 home games in a row and are unbeaten in 16 home games straight. These stats sound impressive but frankly, Maltese league is nowhere near the skill they'll see against this Israeli side. 

- Maccabi Haifa have European experience, and have it recently. Let's not forget that in the Champions League Group Stage just last season they scored in 5/6 group stage games against some of the best teams in the world and even beat Juventus. 

- HamRun have never qualified for a UEFA Club Competition

- Maccabi Haifa have hit BTTS in their last 5 away games across all competitions.

- Both teams have seen massive drop-offs since earlier in this year, with both sides getting rid of some key players and I'm unsure of the starting XI here. This is a game I'll honestly probably stay away from until the second leg. I think this one sees goals but be careful.

**Leans. Maccabi Haifa over 1.5 TT + ML. Over 2.5 goals**