Recap + All 4 UCL articles (Patreon)

Hey gang!

1-2 today but -2u. Estoril's first 0-0 of the season. Sucks but let's focus on UCL baby!!

I did 4 articles for all 4 of the matchups! Each with multiple bets. I'm posting all of those now for everyone to try to potentially beat line movement! 6 plays across the UCL matches tomorrow so pick and choose your favorites if you want! Check the 1u or .5u by the bets!

I'll probably add more Championship plays tomorrow once I dig more into it! Thanks all!

EDIT - Wait for lineups for Muller if your book doesn't void on non start!

ARSENAL vs. BAYERN MUNICH | 4/9 | 3 p.m. ET
Picks

• Score Prediction. 2-1 Arsenal

• Arsenal over 1.5 TT -140. 1u

• Bukayo Saka ATGS +170. 1u

• Thomas Muller ATGS +600. .5u

Man... let's get this one over with. As a Bayern Munich fan, I am not excited for the first leg of this tie. Arsenal is in absolutely unstoppable form, meanwhile the Bavarians have just lost to a newly promoted side domestically for the first time since 2000. The Arsenal money line was +110 just last week. Now, after watching them draw against City and watching Bayern Munich drop back-to-back games, that same ML has moved 40 points to -130, and that makes perfect sense to me. 

Arsenal continue to thrive under manager Mikel Arteta. They currently sit ahead of Manchester City on the EPL table, second only under Liverpool. With a massive 75 goals scored in 31 matches, they lead the EPL not only in attack, but also in defense, having only conceded 24 goals over those matches. This is a club in their best form possible at the best possible time, and will be seeking revenge over a head-to-head matchup that they have always struggled in. With the likes of Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Martin Odegaard and more all playing well at the moment, this is a team that we're going to have a hard time not backing in one way or another, especially when they're at home.

While Arsenal continue to flourish this season, Bayern Munich are having their worst statistical season in over a decade. Bayern have won the league for 11 straight seasons, but are currently 16 points behind Leverkusen. Bayern Munich also haven't lost more than five domestic matches since 2011, and now they've lost six. This is a team that is burdened with problems both on and off the pitch. The club is upset with their current manager Thomas Tuchel, and Tuchel is already mentally checked out having said he's already leaving at the campaign's conclusion. Meanwhile, players on the pitch are vocally showing their discontent with the club and manager. There is talk of multiple big-name players wanting to leave the club, and the fighting between players and staff continues every week.

This is a matchup where in my mind, home field advantage means everything. I expect Arsenal to lead after the first leg, and for Bayern to desperately attack back in the second leg. 

REAL MADRID CF vs. MANCHESTER CITY F.C. | 4/9 | 3 p.m. ET
Picks:

• Score Prediction. 2-1/2-2 Real Madrid Lean

• Real Madrid DNB +100. 1u

• Real Madrid over 1.5 TT +125. 1u

• Over 2.5 goals -145. 1u

A finale-caliber matchup will happen in the quarterfinals as returning UCL champions Manchester City is pitted against the team with the most UCL wins in football history, Real Madrid. Two of the most prolific offenses on the planet will clash at the Bernabau in Madrid in this first leg. This is the type of tie where home field advantage will play a massive role in the competition, so it's important to remember that when pricing out your wagers. 

Real Madrid are a club that live and breathe this competition. They continue to dominate domestically, and their European competitions have been no different. This is a team that is capable of attacking the best defenses in the world thanks to players like Vini. Jr, Jude Bellingham, and more being in top form, and they are seemingly unbeatable when they play in front of their home fans. Los Blancos played 15 matches at home this season domestically and have yet to lose any of them. While Manchester City is tougher than the LaLiga teams Madrid is used to facing, I expect them to dominate at home and at the very least escape equal, if not up on goals since they head to Etihad for the second leg. 

While Real Madrid are sitting comfortably atop of the LaLiga table with a single loss this season, Manchester City are showing signs of struggle. They're currently sitting third on the table after conceding one goal per game, and have seen 10 of their 31 league matches end in either a draw or a loss. Even the cyborg himself Erling Haaland has had unusual dry spells in front of the net. This is a team that while still showing signs of domination, but with Pep Guardiola struggling to keep his starting XI fit, they are just not playing consistently enough for my liking. 

PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN vs. BARCELONA | 4/10 | 3 p.m. ET
Picks

• Score Prediction. 1-1

• Draw +275 (one unit)

• Barcelona Double Chance -120 (one unit)

• Kylian Mbappe First Goalscorer +270 (one unit)

We are in for a wild tie between the Giant of Paris as they host Barcelona in the first leg of a Champions League quarterfinal. PSG have been, like a lot of clubs right now, dealing with a plethora of issues off the pitch, most noticeably issues with star Kylian Mbappe. He has made his intentions to leave the club very clear, and the fight between him and management has been loud. Even with the tough situations at Paris, Mbappe has still been world-class.

Like all the matchups, this matchup is one where home-field advantage is going to play a massive role. I believe that both PSG and Barcelona will put together their best performances at home, so PSG know they need to produce a result in the first leg. The club has been doing fine domestically, sitting top of the table by 10 points with only one loss this season, but it has been picking up some rough draws this season and will be on tired legs with three matches in the last week. But the question is, Can anyone stop Mbappe?

While PSG continue their domestic domination, Barcelona haven't had quite that level of success. Another club that is drawing more than it would like, Barcelona are second in the La Liga table seven points behind rival Real Madrid. They'll be the more rested squad, but manager Xavi wouldn't hate a draw in the first leg, knowing they get to come back to Spain in the second. Led by Robert Lewandowski on attack with the young sensation Lamine Yamal seemingly getting better each and every match, Barcelona will be keen on escaping this first leg without dropping the goal deficit in what should be a cagey and fun first leg at Parc des Princes. 

Atletico v Dortmund Picks and Analysis

• Score Prediction. 2-1 Atleti

Picks:

Atletico over 1.5 TT. -105. 1u

Alvaro Morata ATGS +115. 1u

Analysis:

The theme continues in Champions League of home-field advantage meaning everything here. In this match we have two of the most dominate teams on the planet, but specifically when they play at their home stadium. Atletico when playing at Cities Metropolitan Stadium have only sen a single loss all season long. Atletico when playing on the road are struggling to string together positive results, but you can bet when at home, they are and should be the favorites regardless of their opponent. We’ll see the same thing out of Dortmund in the second leg, but right now Dortmund’s game-plan should be survive this first leg, then bounce back in the second leg.

Atletico Madrid are a club that historically were able to boast about their iron-like defense, however, not this season. Led by the attacking duo of Antione Greizmann and Alvaro Morata, this is a team that has been out for plug and are scoring goals freely. The duo have a combined 25 goals and 7 assists this season, and when they are healthy, are a threat to the best backlines in Europe. Knowing that they have to travel to Dortmund in the second leg, I’m expecting them to attack early, and try to grab multiple goals in the process.

While Dortmund are certainly riding the high of taking down German giants Bayern Munich, we saw what happens when their focus shifts. An embarrassing 1-0 loss to Stuttgart was not what this club needing before their big UCL clash. They still have tremendous attacking talent, but I don’t know if we’ll see that in full effect. I expect Dortmund to do their best to keep things close. Even if they lost by 1 goal in the first leg, that wouldn’t be the worst result for a club who will look to dominate in that second leg.