📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 20 2023📈 (Patreon)

9 games on Sunday.

Let’s dig in deep on 46 of the NBA’s top prospects.

PHI 121 @ BKN 99

Jaden Springer

10 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 1-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 21 MIN

🔸After falling out of the rotation at the start of the month, Springer has come roaring back with three straight games with 20+ minutes. 87th percentile in Defensive EPM and becoming a more willing 3PT shooter (3.3 attempts per 75 poss. - up from 1.9 last season) - the floor here is a long-term 3-and-D rotation guard - but the upside to become a starter remains if the offensive gains continue.

Day’Ron Sharpe

6 PTS | 8 REB | 2 AST | 2 BLK | 3-3 2PT | 20 MIN

🔸A few extra minutes in a blowout, but Sharpe’s role has risen dramatically with Claxton’s return - averaging nearly 20 minutes per game over the last four. Sharpe is in the 99th and 98th percentile, respectively, in offensive and defensive rebounding and is maintaining his strong block rate in expanded minutes. Limited offensively, Day’Ron is still making it count as a P&R roll man - with an elite 1.33 points per possession in limited volume. I remain bullish and think he’s at least a long-term backup center.

Paul Reed

0 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 2 BLK | 0-3 2PT | 14 MIN

🔸Finally - a multi-block game from Paul Reed. It’s been disappointing but I’m here to preach patience. Reed IS attempting to create more off dribble, has improved his passing significantly, and is starting to take some threes. The big leap that Nick Nurse was hyping in training camp likely isn’t happening this year - but the potential remains sky high for the future. Hold and acquire at this low point.

Trendon Watford

8 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 4 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-7 2PT | 22 MIN

🔸Watford delivers interesting fantasy lines whenever called into action and has one of the smoothest floaters you’ll ever see from a 6’8” 240 pound forward. I don’t think he has a defensive position yet and the 3PT volume must improve, but there’s enough here to keep stashing in 300+ rostered formats since he’s newly 23 years old.

Kenyon Martin Jr.

0 PTS | 1 REB | 4 MIN

🔸Out of the rotation and unlikely to ascend without a series of injuries in front of him. At only 22 years old coming off of a dominant season at the rim in HOU (72.2% on big volume), I’m still hopeful that Martin Jr. can reclaim a strong rotation role across his prime. The key will be improving his defensive effort and consistency, which haven’t been there through three seasons.

DET 113 @ TOR 142

Scottie Barnes

17 PTS | 3-4 3PT | 7 REB | 9 AST | 4-7 2PT | 25 MIN

🔸Barnes is contesting fewer shots over the last two weeks and has seen a corresponding drop in his block numbers - but the rise in his shooting (8-13 3PT over his last three games - 39.4% on the season on nearly double last year’s volume) is exactly what he needed to spark his All Star ceiling.

Cade Cunningham

18 PTS | 3-5 3PT | 5 REB | 4 AST | 4-12 2PT | 1-3 FT | 27 MIN

🔸Cade is leading the entire NBA in P&R ball handler possessions (166) in an offense that is so disrespected by opposing defenses that four defenders collapse on him the moment he enters the lane. His shot looks pure but driving to the rim 17+ times per game and attempting to finish over multiple defenders has left his efficiency in the dumpster (6th percentile at the rim, 27th percentile from mid-range). The Pistons need #1) more spacing and #2) to balance the on-ball workload with Jaden Ivey and get Cade more off-ball looks. With this season already a lost cause, let’s hope they make some changes.

Ausar Thompson

9 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 10 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-4 2PT | 3-4 FT | 30 MIN

🔸Ausar has double-digit rebounds in five of his last six games and his block rate (4.4%, 89th percentile) continues to hold. He hasn’t hit a three in two weeks and is only averaging one attempt in that span, but we’ll take the offensive growing pains when we’re getting this much across other categories. Ausar’s 93rd percentile Defensive EPM is truly astounding - rookie wings should not be this good on defense.

Jaden Ivey

9 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 3-5 2PT | 3-4 FT | 28 MIN

🔸Ivey started with Killian Hayes inactive - and he had zero turnovers and the Pistons were a team-best +0 with him on the court. These are the small steps that Monty Williams - apparently - needs to see. Ivey averaged 6.8 P&R ballhandler possessions per game last season and is averaging 1.8 this season - despite improved efficiency (.833 points per possession). Hold Ivey and wait for the better days ahead - this team desperately needs Ivey as an additional on-ball creator.

Marcus Sasser

9 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 REB | 6 AST | 1 STL | 3-4 2PT | 21 MIN

🔸Sasser reclaimed some minutes in this one with Killian Hayes out and the Pistons getting blown out. He’ll likely dip back into a smaller role but you should be stashing him everywhere you can - 39.2 3PT% on strong volume, a mid-range maestro shooting 56.4% on 5.0 attempts per 75 poss., and plus-AST and STL rates. Sasser has all the makings of a long-term fantasy contributor.

Gradey Dick

5 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 STL | 0-1 2PT | 2-2 FT | 12 MIN

🔸Slow start to Dick’s rookie campaign - a brutal 23.7% from three on good volume and some ugly defensive metric rankings (7th percentile in Defensive EPM). He’ll be much better than this as the season continues but if the Raptors stay in the play-in mix, I don’t know if his role expands much this year.

James Wiseman

15 PTS | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 6-8 2PT | 3-5 FT | 24 MIN

🔸This was a garbage time special where Wiseman collected most of his stats in 8 minutes of non-competitive basketball. As usual, he fouled at an alarming rate and the defensive feel is likely never coming around. On the positive side, he’s a career-best 78.3% at the rim this season. I’ve given up on Wiseman ever being a starter - but he’ll likely get a few more seasons on the back-end of rosters to see if he can be a backup big.

ORL 128 @ IND 116

Paolo Banchero

24 PTS | 3 REB | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 9-14 2PT | 6-7 FT | 27 MIN

🔸Paolo dominated at the rim (7-8) against the Pacers’ league-worst defense and we’re starting to see steady STL production (71st percentile STL rate compared to 34th percentile as a rookie). The FT shooting remains atrocious (65.6% on huge volume) but the elite rim finishing is the key for this 6’10” 250 pound truck who can drive to the basket at-will.

Franz Wagner

19 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 6-12 2PT | 7-7 FT | 22 MIN

🔸Franz has yielded some touches to Paolo over the last couple weeks but he’s also been more aggressive getting to the basket - with 28 rim attempts in his last three games. Franz has career-highs in usage (25.2%), defensive rebound rate (15.0%) and steal rate (1.7%) and seems primed for some massive stat lines now that his cold shooting streak has snapped.

Jalen Suggs

18 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 5-6 2PT | 5-6 FT | 18 MIN

🔸Suggs took advantage of the layup line presented by the Pacers’ defense - and showed off an improved finishing package with a nice finger roll and reverse layup. Defensively, he’s a monster and the Magic have - understandably - reduced his on-ball role and made him a more efficient, complementary scorer. My concern? 25.1% on wide-open threes (despite almost three wide-open attempts per game) and 29.3% on catch-and-shoot threes this season.

Jarace Walker

7 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-3 2PT | 1-1 FT | 14 MIN

🔸Career-high 14 minutes for Walker because of the blowout - and only his fourth game appearance this season. Encouraging to see Jarace getting threes up like he did in the preseason, even if they didn’t fall, and he had a nice steal for a transition layup that showed his defensive playmaking potential. I remain very optimistic on Jarace’s future and would not be shocked to see him starting early next season. Hold and stay strong.

Anthony Black

7 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 2 BLK | 1-3 2PT | 5-6 FT | 24 MIN

🔸Black went 4-for-7 from three in his first two big minute appearances at the beginning of November - and has gone 1 for 10 ever since. Black’s biggest offensive strength at Arkansas was his ability to slither to the rim with impressive footwork for his size, but he’s averaging a paltry 2.3 drives per game so far this year (and 11.6% usage). I like Black long-term but the questions we had about his offensive game haven’t gone away.

Bennedict Mathurin

14 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 3-9 2PT | 5-5 FT | 25 MIN

🔸Mathurin is making some smarter passes this year - his assist rate is up to a respectable 48th percentile and his potential assists are up to 3.4 per game compared to last year’s 2.8. But he’s going to need to shoot at some point to unlock his potential. 33.1% on wide open threes and 31% on catch-and-shoot threes just isn’t going to cut it.

Cole Anthony

15 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 4-9 2PT | 4-4 FT | 25 MIN

🔸Cole is probably stuck as a third guard in Orlando in the short term, but I love his fantasy game and I think - like Derrick White before him - he’ll eventually get expanded opportunity in his career and produce some top 100 seasons.

Isaiah Jackson

6 PTS | 4 REB | 1 AST | 3 STL | 1 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 4-6 FT | 12 MIN

🔸These were all garbage time minutes but it’s nice to see the production from Jackson since he’s been buried on the bench behind Jalen Smith. The lack of development here is concerning, but maybe we see Jackson emerge on a second team like former Pacer Goga Bitadze is doing for Orlando.

DEN 109 @ CLE 121

Evan Mobley

16 PTS | 10 REB | 5 AST | 2 BLK | 8-11 2PT | 32 MIN

🔸After early struggles, Mobley is trending way up at the rim in the last two weeks (41-50, 82%) and has 13 assists in his last three games - hitting cutters and kicking out of drives with good vision. The 21.1% usage remains disappointing but this is at least the Mobley we saw last season.

Christian Braun

13 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 2 REB | 5-10 2PT | 25 MIN

🔸Braun’s offensive role has expanded significantly with Jamal Murray out - scoring on drives, in transition, and as a cutter. But his steals have evaporated this season (19th percentile steal rate) which will need to change if he’s going to emerge as a viable fantasy option in his prime.

Julian Strawther

7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 1-3 2PT | 2-2 FT | 20 MIN

🔸Strawther is maintaining ELITE 3PT volume across 10 appearances this season - 10.4 3PT attempts per 75 poss. (98th percentile). Unfortunately, there’s been little else to his game beyond shooting and the defense remains an impediment to larger minutes.

Craig Porter Jr.

21 PTS | 4 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 7-10 2PT | 7-7 FT | 25 MIN

🔸No, it’s not a fluke - these are the kind of fantasy lines that Porter Jr. put up at Wichita State - making him one of my favorite undrafted players in the 2023 NBA Draft this summer. This comes with Mitchell, LeVert and Okoro out, but don’t forget about CPJ once he returns to the bench - his time as a rotation staple will come eventually.

Jalen Pickett

8 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 2 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 0-1 2PT | 2-2 FT | 19 MIN

🔸I loved Jalen Pickett’s fantasy stat set in the pre-draft process and thought Denver was the best possible landing spot to make his unconventional game work in the NBA. The minutes were inflated by garbage time but the three assists out of the pick-and-roll and two spot-up threes showed how he can make it as a long-term backup PG.

SAC 129 @ DAL 113

Keegan Murray

17 PTS | 2-7 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 5-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 33 MIN

🔸Keegan disappointed as a scorer with Fox out of the lineup, but he’s emerged as an elite defensive player (97th percentile Defensive EPM) who is suddenly locking down top scorers on the perimeter. Once the shots start falling (28.3 3PT% this season), his improved rebounding and nearly-doubled steal rate are going to lead to big fantasy production.

Dereck Lively II

6 PTS | 9 REB | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 3-6 2PT | 29 MIN

🔸Lively is in the bottom 10 in personal fouls per 36 minutes (5.2) but continues to finish at an elite rate (76.7% at the rim, 94th percentile) and already looks like one of the best offensive rebounders in the league. The Mavs’ defense is a dumpster fire which is dragging down Lively’s defensive metrics (59th percentile Defensive EPM), but this has been an extremely positive rookie campaign so far.

Josh Green

11 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 4 REB | 5 AST | 2 STL | 2-3 2PT | 1-2 FT | 26 MIN

🔸Green is not going to consistently start until he shoots three pointers with volume - and we’re starting to see improvement there (5.1 3PT attempts per 75 poss. compared to 4.1 last season). Green also has 3+ assists in 5 of his last 6 games - and seems to have potential to grow given the creativity of some of his passes.

Jaden Hardy

4 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 STL | 0-2 2PT | 1-2 FT | 10 MIN

🔸Hardy is on the fringe of the rotation right now as the Mavericks try to find a viable defensive structure. I think Hardy eventually wins out over Dante Exum and carves out a more consistent role.

PHO 140 @ UTA 137

Keyonte George

7 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 5 REB | 11 AST | 1 STL | 2-7 2PT | 3-4 FT | 34 MIN

🔸Keyonte looked like a new player in Summer League - noticeably slimmer than at Baylor and more explosive - and it looked like he could be an NBA starter as a score-first guard. But now we are 13 games deep into Utah’s season and George is posting a 30.3% assist rate (93rd percentile) and appears to be a legitimate, long-term starting point guard. The shots aren’t falling right now, which is masking the breakout, but you should be trying to acquire Keyonte before everyone realizes HOW good he’s going to be.

Ochai Agbaji

3 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 34 MIN

🔸Ochai has been getting 25+ minutes a night across the Jazz’s last five games and he’s produced 8 blocks and 7 threes across that span. If this newfound block rate (86th percentile) can hold, he becomes a much more interesting fantasy player. Second to only THT in Defensive EPM on the Jazz, so his position in the rotation looks like it could hold.

BOS 102 @ MEM 100

Santi Aldama

28 PTS | 6-15 3PT | 12 REB | 6 AST | 2 STL | 5-12 2PT | 39 MIN

🔸Career-highs for Santi in points, minutes, shots, threes, and assists all in the same game. The Grizzlies have desperately needed someone to step up and I think they’ve found him. I don’t know if the huge leaps in rebounding and assist rates can hold but the fact that Aldama has doubled his drives per game this season (and scoring at 70% true shooting on those drives) makes me think there’s something big happening here.

Sam Hauser

15 PTS | 5-7 3PT | 4 REB | 2 STL | 0-1 2PT | 22 MIN

🔸Hauser has attempted only eight shots inside the arc this season - but who needs two-pointers when you are shooting 47.5% from three on 98th percentile volume? He’s a screaming sell-high given the emptiness of the rest of his fantasy game - we can never forget that Duncan Robinson rose to a top 100ish dynasty ADP during his breakout season.

Ziaire Williams

6 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 3-7 2PT | 24 MIN

🔸Williams’ improvement as a rebounder has held through 12 games but he continues to struggle from three at high volume (28.8%). I expect he’ll continue to get opportunities in this rotation but his 11th percentile Offensive EPM across 25 minutes a game speaks to why the Grizzlies have struggled so much to start this season.

David Roddy

0 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 2 REB | 20 MIN

🔸Roddy had a chance to claim a large role in this rotation and it just looks like he isn’t ready - and may never be.

OKC 134 @ POR 91

Chet Holmgren

16 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 6 REB | 2 BLK | 4-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 20 MIN

🔸I tried to temper my expectations for Chet’s rookie season, but he’s already evolved into the fully formed fantasy superstar that I was hyping up before the 2022 NBA Draft. 14 games into the season, Chet is shooting 73% at the rim (86th percentile), 46.0% from three (92nd percentile), and 90.7% from the free throw line. Add in an elite block rate and you have a cornerstone player for the next decade.

Shaedon Sharpe

7 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 2-7 2PT | 24 MIN

🔸Exhibit A of why you don’t play a 20-year old 40+ minutes a night for three weeks - Sharpe has slammed into the wall in the last few games. Don’t worry - the star trajectory is still there - we just need Chauncey Billups to not kill this man in Year 2. Sharpe’s near-double assist rate is holding and his shot creation is a revelation. Try a buy low and see if there’s some unwarranted panic from the Sharpe manager in your league.

Josh Giddey

6 PTS | 4 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 3-6 2PT | 23 MIN

🔸Giddey is suffering from a deadly combination of high volume and awful efficiency at both the rim and from mid-range - along with a drop in his 3PT volume. Until that shot profile improves - and Giddey develops enough craft to finish at the rim and from floater range effectively - it will be ugly like it’s been. With that said, I am buying during this slump - Giddey is one of the best passers and processors in the league and has been too good in his young career for this to be the new normal.

Cason Wallace

2 PTS | 1 REB | 1 STL | 1-2 2PT | 21 MIN

🔸Wallace started and was a non-factor offensively. He holds a 75% true shooting percentage on the season (99th percentile) on a miniscule 10.6 usage percentage. His offensive role could not be smaller but, similar to Keegan Murray last year, his willingness to play that role is why I think he’ll be a very successful long-term starter in OKC.

Jabari Walker

13 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 5-10 2PT | 0-1 FT | 22 MIN

🔸Get familiar with Jabari Walker, if you haven’t already. 21 years old with an 88th percentile Defensive EPM, strong rebounding rates, and 80+ percentile in both steal and block rates - that’s the recipe for a star role player in the future. With the Blazers headed nowhere this season, Jabari should be grabbed in all leagues rostering 200+ players.

Toumani Camara

6 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 2 REB | 3-3 2PT | 15 MIN

🔸Foul trouble and a blowout led to these low minutes but Camara should be playing minutes in the upper 20s going forward. One of the few bright spots of this Blazers’ season, his defensive impact should make him a rotation staple for years to come.

HOU 104 @ LAL 105

Alperen Şengün

23 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 10 REB | 5 AST | 1 BLK | 10-14 2PT | 31 MIN

🔸Eleven games into the Rockets’ season and it’s become clear that Şengün is the Rockets’ best young player. He’s added a deadly mid-range game (57.1% on 91st percentile volume), is finishing at the rim at a career-best 69.4% and his assist rate is at 30% (93rd percentile). But the big headline is that Ime Udoka’s coaching and a competent defensive structure around him has made Alperen into a solid defensive player (79th percentile Defensive EPM, 84th percentile defensive rating). Multiple All Star appearances ahead.

Jabari Smith Jr.

14 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 3-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 32 MIN

🔸Let’s focus on the positive - Jabari has made a huge second-year leap at the rim, shooting 74.2% on increased volume. That’s a BIG indicator of long-term success in NBA players. He’s also shooting 35.2% from three on increased volume compared to 30.7% last season. The rest of the profile is pretty flat compared to his rookie year, but I’m still optimistic on Jabari becoming a very good fantasy player across a long career.

Austin Reaves

17 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 3-4 2PT | 5-6 FT | 25 MIN

🔸After a brutal October, Reaves is coming on strong - pushing up to an 81st percentile assist rate and the best steal rate of his career (57th percentile). I haven’t changed my bullish outlook on Reaves - he’s going to be very good for a long time.

Jalen Green

9 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 1-5 2PT | 1-3 FT | 31 MIN

🔸Again, focusing on the positive, Jalen is shooting a career-best 37.5% from three and getting to the line at a 95th percentile clip. The negative? Everything inside the arc is a disaster - 49.2% at the rim and 25% from mid-range. His playmaking has not developed and his steal rate is at a career low. The book isn’t written on Jalen but there’s some concern that he may be more of a complementary shooting guard rather than a star creator.

Tari Eason

2 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 5 REB | 1 BLK | 1-1 2PT | 17 MIN

🔸Tari is locked into a small rotation role but the elite rebounding is still there and he’s blocking shots at an incredible pace (95th percentile block rate). Only two steals in five game is a bit surprising, so let’s watch to see if Udoka’s defensive scheme is limiting that area of Eason’s game.