📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 10 2023📈 (Patreon)

Let’s dig into the two games from Thursday night.

MIL 124 @ IND 126

Bennedict Mathurin

26 PTS | 3-7 3PT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 6-11 2PT | 5-6 FT | 36 MIN

🔸After looking timid from the perimeter, Mathurin has launched 14 threes in his last two games (7-14, 50%) and showed nice shot versatility in this one with some pull-up and stepback jumpers. The relentless rim pressure was also on display again (4-6 at the rim, 5-6 at the free throw line). And Mathurin has 20 REB over his last two games as well. This is what we wanted in Year 2.

Andrew Nembhard

10 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2-3 3PT | 20 MIN

🔸Low assists here but the important takeaway is that TJ McConnell remains on the outside of the rotation and that should mean consistent production for Nembhard, even in a bench role. Both Nembhard’s AST rate (25.8% - 87th percentile) and STL rate (2.1% - 75th percentile) are up from his rookie year and he’s a scintillating 54.3% from mid-range on heavy volume.

Aaron Nesmith

6 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 1 REB | 0-1 2PT | 16 MIN

🔸Minutes limited by foul trouble and Carlisle still didn’t play Obi Toppin big minutes - instead going with two-big lineups with Daniel Theis and Myles Turner. It feels like only a matter of time before Nesmith is starting - he’s still inconsistent but his defensive potential paired with 50% 3PT shooting  on solid volume necessitates substantial minutes.

Isaiah Jackson

3 PTS | 3 REB | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 1-2 FT | 11 MIN

🔸Backup center minutes here because Jalen Smith got scratched late with a sore lower back. The blocks on Beauchamp and Portis were both at the rim and spectacular. Jackson remains a dynasty stash in hope that he can eventually find consistent backup minutes - just don’t expect it any time soon with Jalen Smith looking like the preferred option behind Turner.

MarJon Beauchamp

5 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 1-2 2PT | 13 MIN

🔸After playing 27 minutes against DET on Wednesday, Beauchamp was back to his usual role against the Pacers. The good? He’s shooting 63.6% at the rim, 75% from midrange and 47.4% from three - albeit on low volume. The bad? Only one steal and zero blocks across eight games so far. MarJon has a real opportunity to grab a long-term starting role as a 3-and-D perimeter defender, but he hasn’t grabbed it yet.

Andre Jackson Jr.

0 PTS | 5 MIN

🔸Jackson Jr. is on the outside of this rotation but I’ll use this as an opportunity to remind you that he was the most impressive young player on this roster during the preseason and Beauchamp’s failure to seize a larger role could create an opening for Andre in the second half. Potential to be a strong STL + BLK contributor with solid contributions in REB and AST.

Jarace Walker

DNP-CD

🔸Hard to see Walker inactive even in a game script where the Pacers were without Jalen Smith and Nesmith was in foul trouble. I hope the Pacers will let Walker get some G League run and integrate him into the rotation in the second half. I remain confident in Walker’s long-term fantasy potential - this is the window to acquire him in all leagues.

ATL 120 @ ORL 119

Jalen Suggs

21 PTS | 4-5 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 6 STL | 3-5 2PT | 3-6 FT | 31 MIN

🔸Suggs remains a hustle stat king - 6 steals in this game and #3 in deflections and loose balls recovered in the entire league. But the offensive improvement is the headline - hitting some stepback threes and attacking closeouts with more confidence - Suggs isn’t the pick-in-roll operator we hoped he could be, but if he can shoot like this more consistently, he may end up living up to a lot of his pre-draft hype.

Jalen Johnson

19 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 9 REB | 2 AST | 1 BLK | 5-5 2PT | 3-4 FT | 31 MIN

🔸Is Jalen Johnson TOO high in the dynasty rankings update I just released? Games like this make me think he’s too LOW. A perfect 5-5 in the paint with a combination of dunks, floaters, and strong contested finishes - Johnson is up to 72.9% at the rim (86th percentile) and he isn’t just a play finisher - 38% of his attempts are self-created. Bounced back from an 0-4 3PT performance against OKC and it looks like the shooting improvement is real (28.8% from three last year, 34.8% this year). The breakout is very real.

Paolo Banchero

17 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 8 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 6-11 2PT | 2-4 2PT | 34 MIN

🔸Paolo is averaging 23.5 PTS, 1 3PT, 7.3 REB and 6.3 AST over his last four games. The Magic’s poor spacing is leading to a lot of heavily contested rim attempts but Banchero is still 72.4% at the rim over the last four. Paolo’s playmaking has made a substantial leap this year - jumping from 6.9 potential assists per game to 8.7 and leading the Magic in points created on assists. I think the superstar leap happens in Year 3 but keep monitoring this progress.

Franz Wagner

12 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 7 REB | 3 AST | 5-11 2PT | 2-2 FT | 29 MIN

🔸Two quiet nights in a row could open a buy-low opportunity for Franz - the usage remains at a career-high 25.4% (84th percentile), he’s doubled his rebound rate from last season, and he hasn’t started hitting shots yet. Everything is lining up for a big stretch of games in the near future - take advantage while you can.

Onyeka Okongwu

7 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 3 STL | 4 BLK | 3-3 2PT | 1-2 FT | 21 MIN

🔸This is why we are patient with the neverending minutes split with Clint Capela. Okongwu is a per-minute, fantasy monster who finally got the blocks going in this one. The Hawks considered moving Capela to Dallas in the offseason and trading Clint still makes the most sense for ATL’s long-term cap sheet. Until then, we wait and enjoy this steady production.

Anthony Black

9 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 2-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 17 MIN

🔸Black is averaging 9 PTS, 1.3 3PT, 3.8 REB, 1.5 AST, and 1 STL and 24 minutes across his last four games - the extended opportunity has shown that Black’s 3PT shooting may be ahead of schedule (5-9, 55.6%) but his playmaking might not be there yet (9.9% assist rate and only 3.2 potential assists per game). If the shooting can hold, he could expand his role quicker than expect, so watch that closely.

AJ Griffin

2 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 1-1 2PT | 10 MIN

🔸Griffin is averaging only 9 minutes per game so far but, on the positive side, he continues to get threes up at a respectable 6.7 attempts per 75 possession clip and - at 20 years old - he remains younger than many rookies in the 2023 class. Better seasons are ahead for Griffin but this rotation is very tight right now and I don’t expect more minutes without injuries.

Kobe Bufkin

Inactive - Left Thumb Fracture

🔸Bufkin remains out with a fractured thumb and won’t be in the rotation when he returns. The inevitable Bogdan Bogdanovic injury could open up some minutes later in the season, but Snyder seems intent on running his best eight players as many minutes as possible.