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Radio War Nerd Episode #353 — Ukraine War Update: Escape From Kherson (Patreon)

Published:
2022-11-17 22:39:00
Imported:
2023-06

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Recorded: November 15, 2022

Nine months into Russia's disastrous war on Ukraine, we try making sense of Putin's strategy as Russian forces abandon Kherson and the right bank of the Dniepr, just weeks after Putin declared Kherson was "forever" part of Russia. Defeat & failure, somehow we always wind up on those themes.

Total time: 1:31:21

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here 

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Comments

Doug Cartel

The Russians (Or I guess the LPR/DPR/Wagner) are still on the offensive and take smaller towns and villages, it's just they're going real slow and all of their offensive momentum is aimed at two heavily fortified towns. The Russians say they're ready for this war to last years, but god only knows how true that actually is. Edit: I wouldn't say "Putin had no choice" but I do think the West did everything they could to make sure he only had bad choices in front of him; last year Zelensky started yammering about invading Crimea and Russia wanted to talk to NATO about solving this Donbass shitstorm, and NATO just stonewalled and told them no. Not even talking. That's my understanding of events from the 2nd half of 2021 onwards, but if I'm wrong then I'm fine being corrected.

Crash Test Orphan

I love when Mark starts talking about Limonov, Nemstov, etc

Anonymous

Dunno what you guys think of Jeffrey Sachs, but I think itd be cool if you interview him. Certainly has some heterodox views these days and knows a lot about history.

xxx

Wow that was a great episode. Really leaned into the RWN "wheelhouse": - Exile era Russia stories - Limonov - Irony of western elites - Harsh reality check: Admitting Russia is FUCKING LOSING this war bad - Bringing it back home for some dumb ass American antics (Q-Anon)

Anonymous

I have not listened to this episode just yet. But i personally wanted to tell you that “POILU”. Is the best primary account of conflict I think I have ever read . Thank you for the amazing content and recommendations. Hope this finds you well

Jimothy Realname

They'd fight the khokhols two to one who only fought for boo-oo-ty, but when the ukrops came along it was "legs, do your duty"

Anonymous

Ukraine is a graveyard of common sense. Love you guys, have been listening from nearly very beginning, even met in person. You’ve been doing a great job across centuries and geographies … until this war started. If you could just say, “we will not cover Ukraine leaving it to others because it’s impossible for us to be objective”, that would have served you well. Instead of a cold logical analysis of the events we get a psychoanalysis of the worst kind - Mark reading Putin’s mind. I understand it’s entertaining, a little bit, but it sounds more like astrology. I don’t understand how you were able to get Syria so well, yet get Ukraine so poorly. Mark, I get it that Putin closed your paper, though he likely is completely unaware of that, but it’s time to let it go - it was 15 years ago! You keep saying how disastrous this war has been for Russia, but mostly make emotionally charged arguments to support this claim. Isn’t it well established by now that Ukraine planned a massive attack on Donbass in mid-March early April, as their ticket to NATO? Didn’t they originally plan that for April 2021? Didn’t the State Department create a “tiger team Ukraine” in September-October 2021? Didn’t F-the-EU Nuland visit Moscow then (they had to remove her from the no-entry list temporarily) and demand from Russian MoFA to stop the support of DNR/LNR, allegedly cursing in Russian in the process? Didn’t AFU start artillery prep on February 16th, as was reported day by day by the OSCE? If the attack on Donbass of the accumulated 160K-180K AFU forces was inevitable, Russia faced two bad options - let it happen or hit preemptively. The first case would obviously let them overrun the 50K or so of LDNR troops, cause mass civilian casualties in the cities, and lead to urban warfare where Russian firepower superiority would only cause higher losses, both military and civilian. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Steven Cohen predicted the war, so did Mearsheimer, so did many others. Yet you present it as if it’s just Putin got carried away with himself. You quoted Limonov in a very creative way, and completely omitted him predicting back in 1992 that this war would inevitably happen. Even shortly before his death he was saying, “take back Kharkov, and Northern Kazakhstan while at it.” Instead of psychoanalyzing Putin, friend of the show Max Blumenthal and Aaron Mate interviewed Jeffrey Sachs who explained very succinctly what is going on and why. His explanation is consistent both internally and with the Syria story. You for some reason completely forgot White Helmets and eagerly took the B***a story at face value, before any facts were presented about it. As if you wanted to believe it. I’m sorry, but “atrocities happen in wars” doesn’t cut as an honest justification for such an eager belief. Isn’t it clear by now which side commits atrocities, and even brags about them, and which is actually trying to minimize civilian losses? By the way, Sachs was very clear about who bombed the pipelines. 94% of Germans think it was the U.S. Only Mark believes that it’s Putin’s 4D chess despite a complete absence of logic. It is somewhat understandable that the blowup of pipelines can trigger a cognitive dissonance if one believes in the unprovoked attack on European elves by the Asiatic orcs. You keep talking about the disastrous attack on Kiev in the beginning of the war as if that’s the only explanation of what happened. The professional view of Van Riper’s group is quite different - [https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/08/a-former-us-marine-corps-officers.html](https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/08/a-former-us-marine-corps-officers.html). I’m not saying they are right. But such a view at least is worth a discussion. Ulysses Grant saying that the objective of the war is to destroy enemy’s army - genius. Russian military command trading empty square kilometers of steppe for tens of thousands of AFU losses - stupid Asiatic hordes. Do you not see these contradictions in your own words? “I don’t understand what Russian are doing at this point.” Well, AFU and NATO are nearly out of Soviet heavy equipment. NATO is scraping the bottom of their own artillery, MLRSs, Javelins, Stingers, and, worst of all, 155mm shells. They have no industrial capacity to produce even 5% of what is being used. Demilitarization of NATO is happening in front of our eyes. Yet you are somehow not seeing it. While Russian AD keeps shooting 80%-90% of MLRP and supersonic ballistic (Tochka-U) missiles, NATO AD is pretty much non-existent. The emperor’s got really good new clothes. I was surprised you didn’t know where Bayraktars went. Did you not know that they are only useful against an enemy with no AD? But then you had an “expert” - Sam Bendett - who claimed that AFU shoots done 75% (?) of Shahed-136s? And you didn’t laugh at his number, come on! In general, your guests on Ukraine episodes were mediocre, I’m sorry. Except Seth Harp who only talked (and wrote) about what he saw and didn’t see. Seth is great. Please, please stop covering Ukraine. You are not doing a good job about it, sorry. Please cover the rest of history and locations, as you’ve been doing so well for years, just leave this one alone. I’m begging you. With love and appreciation of the rest of your work.

Magic Mikey
>>95921581

Chomsky recently used the following quote in an interview: “The “utter corruption” of the media, Fuller writes, is one of the most disturbing features of the current crisis: “In the midst of a virulent anti-Russian propaganda barrage whose likes I have never seen during my Cold Warrior days, serious analysts must dig deep these days to gain some objective understanding of what is actually taking place in Ukraine.” ( https://truthout.org/articles/noam-chomsky-humanity-faces-two-existential-threats-one-is-nearly-ignored/ ) I don’t think RWN have realised exactly how deep this “utter corruption” in the MSM goes. I’ve never seen such a barrage of lies in the western MSM in my 50 years. Russia’s killing its own supporters in Ukraine in places like B***, Russia’s shelling its own nuclear power plant, its own pipelines, its own troops. Russia is supposedly “deliberately targeting civilians” and then after a barrage of dozens of missiles they report 2 or 3 civilian deaths, as this is not clearly evidence of precisely the opposite of their claim. This nonsense is being reported not just without any evidence, without any critical analysis but against all reason and common sense. It’s a complete collapse of the intellectual authority of bourgeois, but previously generally reliable outlets like the NYT, the Guardian etc. Yes, they gave credence to the propaganda lies when necessary (e.g., lies about Iraqi WMD) but there was always space for critical voices. No more, as John Pilger laments in this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9pEotvlW-s&ab_channel=SouthChinaMorningPost I’m also coming from a place of deep appreciation of RWN’s work, and I feel bad about how things have turned out, as I was one of the people asking for RWN to start covering Ukraine more. However, I don’t think RWN should stop talking about this, I think they should take Chomsky’s advice and “dig deep these days to gain some objective understanding of what is actually taking place in Ukraine.” Interview some people with radically different views to you and hash it out for example.

Anonymous
>>95921581

Well given you have such a tight grasp of the situation, can you give us a timeline or maybe a prediction for how the inevitable Russian victory will play out? The difference between grants strategy and the Russian retreat is grant was taking southern territory, not trading captured land for ukranian lives. And you are not being honest when you describe the Donbas region as empty kilometers of steppe, it sits on 12.4 trillion usd of mineral wealth.

Anonymous

Geez, the atrocities are real, because the Russians consider everyone with a cell phone a potential resistance fighter for calling in artillery. Which they do. The detailed f#cking torture and burials are beyond anything we imagine in our safe world. KIlling people with sledgehammers and torture is a lovely way to fight for hearts and minds. Meanwhile, Gaslighting our stupid media is an easy target- some of it is imagined, but so much is beyond stupid.

Anonymous

The increase in Ukrainian resistance after the savagery of the Russian occupation was "unexpected" LoL. In reality, there is going to be no real trials and no real way to get the criminals responsible- ultimately showing the Western Concept of retribution for war criminals to be hollow indeed- just look at the level of cruelty and craziness in Mexico and it has been going now for decades?

Anonymous
>>95921581

I believe he was referring to the land given up in the Kherson region which is mainly used for agriculture. The famous black soil area of Ukraine etc. Also, I don’t think he is claiming any great grasp of the situation but has instead put forth a few missing pieces not talked about in RWN’s coverage of the conflict. In saying that it’s not like RWN is anywhere near as bad as others you might run into, but there has certainly been a shift in what is, and what isn’t discussed when compared to their coverage of other conflicts. It must be hard for Mark and John though, for example in this episode Mark talked about how it is still early days and Russia might have more success in the future. This was only said in passing and not really explored any further, but I imagine if he had said something similar 3-4 months ago he would have been jumped on as being “pro-Russian” by others in this community. I don’t envy them having to cater to everyone over a conflict that none of us have any chance of understanding in the foreseeable future.

Anonymous
>>95921581

@Magic Mikey Yes, the corruption of the media and the level of dishonesty is unbelievable. But I also remember how 63% of Americans were made to believe that Saddam was behind 9/11. Although dissenting voices were allowed to some degree. Yet reading and listening about Korean War ([https://blowback.show/S3-Sources](https://blowback.show/S3-Sources)), it sounds like the Red Scare wasn’t any better than now. If after 9 months RWN still needs to dig deep, I don’t think this is a realistic expectation. They definitely have the capacity. But their must be an explanation for the mental block in their heads. I don’t want to speculate and try psychoanalyze what it is. But their takes on this matter have been IMO, and I really hate to say it, borderline russophobic. Which is absolutely shocking considering their backgrounds. BTW, this is Limonov circa 1992 on the coming war between Russia and Ukraine [https://twitter.com/DomiPrisacari/status/1589990086992883713](https://twitter.com/DomiPrisacari/status/1589990086992883713).

Anonymous
>>95921581

@Oliver Thompson We are not in middle school for “what is your prediction then” kind of a dialog. If I could predict these kinds of events, I would be doing something else for a living, and RWN would try to interview me for my insights. The point here is that destruction of the Ukrainian military capacity, both men and equipment, appears to have been the strategy for at least several months now. The casualty ratio has been horrific for Ukraine. Such a war of attrition is very difficult to sustain, especially when NATO is nearly out of what it can send. There’s a reason they are down to sending single digits of artillery pieces and occasional tens of thousands of 155mm. Who knows how this is going to play out. Not me. But it is important to be intellectually honest as much as possible and not fall for cheap (actually rather expensive) propaganda and old gripes with your ex. North Stream was a litmus test. The intellectual contortions Mark had to do to blame it on His Darkness while disregarding basic facts, logic, and Occam’s Razor was nauseating.

Anonymous
>>95921581

Agreed, i would eat my shirt if anyone other than the us blew up nord stream. But re Ukrainian military equipment, it is not as if Russia is free from the same problems with supply, they are running on shortages just like the Ukrainians are, except in the much more crucial sector of manpower instead of artillery shells. To look only at Ukranian casualties and only at ukranian ammunition reserves is a one sided analysis.

Haemu
>>95921581

SB, You are falling victim to the truism that losing men = losing a war. Using this logic you'd be someone gloating that the communists in Vietnam are on the verge of defeat after their losses in the Tet Offensive.

Anonymous
>>95921581

@Oliver Thompson I agree - Russian side is much more sensitive to manpower losses. That's their weakness. On the equipment side though they clearly have much higher stockpiles *and* they have production capacity. We don't know how high that capacity is, but I think it is safe to assume that it's much higher, for example, for 152mm shells than the US's 30K/year for 155mm. Ukraine has none.

Anonymous
>>95921581

@Haenu The stated goal of the war is to demilitarize Ukraine, to prevent it from ever becoming a NATO launchpad. There was also a later statement of a regime change as being another goal. What does winning such a war even mean? There's no clear definition. We can speculate. One possibility is a win for Russia would be to get U.S. to agree on a subset of the December 2021 ultimatum demands. Another possibility - to annex the South all the way to Moldova and all or most of the Dnepr's left bank, including Kharkov. Can Ukraine fight for another couple of years with no equipment left and no energy infrastructure? We don't know. Judging by the absence of a partisan movement on the occupied South-East, it's not clear to what extent the population actually minds being absorbed into Russia. Analogies with other countries and cultures are always flawed and rarely insightful.

Anonymous
>>95921581

Thanks for your detailed criticism. I feel the same way but am too salty to lay it out like that. Just disappointed about all the emotional bollocks when usually these guys have mostly decent & objective analysis with consistently neutral takes. It's really just Mark who's been chomping way too many blue pills on this issue, Gary tends to be less obviously biased.

Anonymous
>>95921581

MacGregor talks about 7K vs. 21K of artillery shells used by Ukr and Ru a DAY. U.S. produces 30K a YEAR. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obi849eRuN4 Hats off to Aaron Mate for sticking his neck out, both on Syria-OPCW and Ukraine. True journalist, a very rare quality these days.

Anonymous

Can you guys please bring on someone - preferably the guy from brasilwire who did the Brazil dictatorships episode - to discuss the election/ongoing aftermath from the 2022 Brazilian election?

Anonymous
>>95921581

A recurring comment from RWN is that Russia has not been successful because it has not bombed the civilan infrastructure to the stoneage, just like the US does everytime they attack. If you believe that war is politics with other means, I would start with the way the war is conducted and then at least try to find out what the political goals are. Demilitarization & denazification were clearly stated. Is the war so far achieving this? Are there other goals? What is the timeframe? Are there statistics about the average/median length of wars? Also, as long as I don't have access to Russia's military plan, I would be a little bit cautious about categorizing wars a desastruous or not. Also, Mark comments that this war is stupid. Would be great to elaborate on that. Are there non-stupid wars? If so what do they look like? Is this a uniquely stupid and if so based on what? Would be great to see the following being discussed: War epistemology and ontology rather than odontology. A deep discussion about the assumptions you make about warfare and expected and unexpected outcomes would be highly welcome. Those assumptions will then most often lead you to your value statements like yay or nay. Your thoughts on the Iran demonstrations would be super interesting. From the War Nerd books I learned about the West support of the MLK crazies. Fascinating stuff!

Magic Mikey
>>95921581

@SB On 15 Feb 2003 the largest demonstrations in both British and Irish history took place in London and Dublin, both against the Iraq war. There were also large demonstrations against the invasion in the US. Today, anti-war demonstrations are so far either non-existent or very small. There is not a single voice on the left in the US political establishment opposing this madness in Ukraine – and hardly a voice in Europe (although check out Clare Daly Irish MEP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akvnQXsxgd8&ab_channel=Dagbladet ). The political pressure is enormous now, far greater than that of Iraq. Even your yanalogy with the red scare is insufficient imo. Its 1914 scale level of capitulation to propaganda and warmongering. This scale of pressure, unprecedented in living memory in the West according to Chomsky, distorts things in all sorts of ways. RWN are clearly doing their best to navigate this – Marks looking at plenty of pro-Russian sources for example as well as the best of the western analysts. However, the political atmosphere means that all of these western analysts, virtually without exception have capitulated to the current narrative. There isn’t the political space for them to actually do their jobs if they want to keep their jobs. And the Russian telegram channels are basically complete amateurs caught in the propaganda trap of their own side, thinking every tactical advance heralds the final victory and fearing every setback is a strategic defeat. They’re mainly good for the media they provide, which has clearly demonstrated the horrendous losses of the Ukrainians. For some reason RWN keeps avoiding the western alt-media, such as the Grayzone, Gonzalo Lira’s roundtables, the Duran, New atlas, and the various channels interviewing Scott Ritter (one of the few analysts with significant relevant expertise trying to do objective analysis). Before this war I generally wouldn’t have given these sources much credence as there is significant overlap with vaccine/stolen election conspiracy theories. But needs must. Mind you., if RWN think engaging with these sources will hurt their brand and lose them members and income (something I would not want to see), then perhaps you’re right, and they should just remain quiet on Ukraine until the dust settles.

Kiel Cone
>>95935152

Allen M Really thinks that Qaddafi was giving his troops viagra to rape ppl. Pretty sure forcefully conscripting your entire population so you have well rested troops that can keep switching while the other side is using the same tired troops has more to do with it. Than and an unlimited weapons budget and western intelligence. Did you forget the ethnic cleansing you NATO weirdos were backing before this war started? Not saying it justifies it but you’re way too insane to be smug. Neither side has to capacity for a total win and this will drag down both economies. Ukraine will sell off its industrial capacity to pay back the weapons lent to them. Expect a foreign labor worker economy.

Anonymous
>>95921581

@Magic Mikey Very well said. The Empire learned its lessons to splinter and divert activists along the easier paths of 'protests', be it Pride, anti-Trump, or Extinction Rebellion. I don't demand or expect from John and Mark to be Robert Parry or Gary Webb. I'm just tired of the low-quality coverage of this topic.

Mark Ames
>>95914664

I have really mixed feelings about Sachs, generally negative. He's been very eloquent for a pedigreed academic speaking some shocking truths on Occupy and the Syria war. But he's got this weird giant brain worm when it comes to his culpability in fucking up Russia (and the world) with his shock therapy reforms that he hustled. I've had a brief back and forth about that and he absolutely refuses to take any responsibility for it and places all the blame on the US and West for not accompanying his shock therapy reforms with hundreds of billions of dollars in aid.

Anonymous

Nato wierdo? LoL. The former east was *always* going to end up as foreign labor in the European Museum, because demographics and poverty.

Anonymous

Dolan failed to mention his Bernie guy admonished those recalcitrant dems for daring to demand peace in Ukraine.

a clash of purple
>>96216412

Look, Bernie is the best politician the U.S. can produce right now at the national level. He still totally sucks in a ton of different ways, especially on foreign policy, but at least he champions improvements to our dismal health care system. Politics in the United States are fucked up, sorry.