UFC Vegas 82 Full-Card Breakdown (Patreon)

Middleweight, Brendan Allen (22-5) vs. Paul Craig (17-6-1):

Picking Craig in a fight is just hoping he finds a submission. It is likely here because Allen likes to grapple. Craig is the better submission grappler but Allen is better technically. Outside of the chin Allen should clear on the feet. Craig is sloppy and defensively crumbles when he gets hit. Allen has some pop in his hands so he can easily put Craig away fast. Allen his a chin problem as well but Craig has been knocked out four times. Allen is the better overall fighter and is my pick to win. I think it would be smart to let his hands go because he can knock out Craig.

Lightweight, Jake Matthews (19-6) vs. Michael Morales (15-0):

If Matthews is on his A-game this is gonna be a fun fight. A few years ago it was Matthew's that had a lot of hype. Now, it's the young man, Morales. Matthews is still really talented but can't get over the hump and can't keep momentum. Morales is an excellent striker. His jab is a focal point of his striking firing from the waist. It's fast as is his hands in general. Morales also uses good feints. The only thing to be worked on is to no throw with wasted motion. Matthews is a good striker of his own and a better wrestler/grappler than Morales. In his last fight Morales showed good takedown defense. Matthews just tends to have lapses in his defense getting chin checked on the feet and in the grappling department. I trust the striking of Morales more but it's mainly the durability. I like Morales by TKO breaking Matthews later in the fight

Lightweight, Jordan Leavitt (11-2) vs. Chase Hooper (12-3-1):

Nobody asked for this fight but it could be fun. Both are good grapplers but not good on the feet. Leavitt is just throwing pillows but has a decent kicking attack. Hooper throws like a wet noodle but does throw a ton of output. Hooper has a lot of length in this fight and I believe he uses it to his advantage in this fight. On the feet, I think he will crowd Leavitt with volume. I'm confident in his grappling more than I am Leavitt's. Hooper is more active and constantly working. I feel wrong saying it but I'm confident in Hooper.

Bantamweight, Payton Talbott (6-0) vs. Nick Aguirre (7-1):

I'm really excited about the debut of Talbott and they're giving him a bone here. Aguirre is nowhere near UFC level and it was shown in his UFC debut getting dominated. Aguirre has zero striking and no wrestling. He's a grappler but not a very good one. I don't even see Aguirre winning a fight in the UFC. Talbott is gonna walk through Aguirre on the feet with constant pressure. Talbott is a wonderful striker and this fight will showcase that. Aguirre won't be able to get this takedown and will slow trying. I'm extremely confident that Talbott will put it on Aguirre to an eventual TKO.

Strawweight, Amanda Ribas (11-4) vs. Luana Pinheiro (11-1):

Ribas is like Dern in terms of never being a jiu-jitsu fighter but not having any wrestling upside nor striking. She hasn't grown her skillset at all since she's been in the UFC. I don't even rate her grappling all too high. Ribas on the feet is really awkward having a herky jerky style. Pinheiro is limited but is dangerous. She has serious power but lacks technique. Pinheiro fights in explosive burst and that's where she thrives. She wants to be in the pocket where her power can translate. Pinheiro also has a judo background but the jiu-jitsu isn't there. Ribas's striking defense lacks and reacts poorly when getting hit. She doesn't take damage too well. Ribas won't shy away from a brawl and it should cost her. You can't trust Ribas to fight smart and stick Pinheiro on the outside. I think it will be a scrap but Pinheiro will be dealing more damage.

Welterweight, Uros Medic (9-1) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (11-1-1)

I like Medic a lot more than I thought I would when he came to the UFC. Orolbai has the potential to catch Medic but he has to wrestle this fight. Medic isn't bad on the mat but it's a grey area as he's not as confident. On the feet though Medic is nasty. Orolbai is basic striking whereas Medic is throwing a ton of output giving a lot of different looks. Medic throws in straights, volume, power, goes to the body, and mixes in a lot of kicks. He's should be too much to handle for Orolbai. Orolbai could bring in a heavy wrestling pace but I can't be sure he does that nor do I believe he can close the distance effectively. I like Medic by TKO.

Lightweight, Nikolas Motta (13-5) vs. Trey Ogden (16-6):

Both these guys are good but they have a ton of deficiencies. Ogden has good fundamentals as he has the jab, footwork, and is well-rounded. His problem is the low volume throwing one punch at a time. He fails to set the pace and he finds himself fighting to catch up. Motta is very talented on the feet and is someone who I think can give many guys in the UFC problems. The difficulty is, that he’s defensively flawed. The TDD needs work and he's been knocked out brutally a few times. I don't see Ogden having the power to stop Motta. On the other side, Ogden has never been stopped by strikers. I believe Ogden can win if he picks up his pace and mixes in up but I can't trust him to do that. I expect Motta to lunge into the pocket with heavy strikes as he does so well. Motta by damage is my prediction.

Bantamweight, Lucie Pudilová (14-8) vs. Ailin Perez (8-2):

The way I see this fight is Perez smothering Pudilova the whole time. Perez, I expect to pressure Pudilova with pressure and volume on the feet. would eventually lead to Perez taking the fight down and dominating with control and ground and pound.  Not that I rate Perez highly because I don't but I think this is a tough match-up for Pudilova.

Heavyweight, Mick Parkin (7-0) vs. Caio Machado (8-1-1):

Machado was so underwhelming in his contender series fight. Parkin has actually been doing much better than I thought he would coming into the UFC. Parkin is more technical than Machado as he can stick with a gameplan. Machado is sloppy with his striking. Parkin is stick to the jab and kicks to the lead leg. Parkin also has competent wrestling and is good once he gets the fight down. Machado is a threat in a slugfest but I trust Parkin not to get drug into that. I like Parkin by decision.

Featherweight, Jonathan Pearce (14-4) vs. Joanderson Brito (15-3-1):

Prior to coming to the UFC Brito had issues with his TDD and working off his back. It seems like he's tightened that up and he can wrestle and grapple himself. Pearce is a top-notch wrestler though so Brito has his work cut out for him. Pearce will need to lean heavily on his wrestling cause the power of Brito has to be taken seriously. Brito is wild on the feet but it's more of a controlled chaos style. Pearce is a nightmare to deal with on top so Brito has to bomb on Pearce. Pearce is hittable and he slows down so that makes Brito live the entire fight. I'd like to pick Brito because of his power and cardio advantage. Saying that, the guys he beat in the UFC aren't anywhere near the fighter as Pearce is. I predict Pearce to win minutes with wrestling and group control

Middleweight, Christian Leroy Duncan (8-1) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (11-8):

Tiuliulin shouldn't even be in the UFC but he's doing the UFC a favor taking this fight on short notice. Duncan had a disappointing UFC debut but I'm sure he's gonna be much better. Tiuliulin has nothing to offer so Duncan should have a fantastic performance. Everyone who knows Duncan knows he's a flashy karate typer fighter who throws a lot of diverse attacks. He can be over the top at times but it won't be a worry in this fight. If Duncan can't beat this guy he should be cut.

Bantamweight, Chad Anheliger (12-6) vs. Jose Johnson (15-8):

Johnson is so fun to watch but it's a shame because his awful TDD holds him back. His takedown defense is some of the worst you will see. Luckily, for him, Anheliger is not a wrestler. In fact, I think if he wanted to, Johnson could use his wrestling in this fight. Anheliger is a boxing-orientated fighter. He throws a good jab and rips together punches on the inside. It's gonna be tough for him to get in boxing range against Johnson who has a significant height and reach advantage.  Johnson is good at range with long strikes and an effective teep kick. He’s lethal in the clinch with excellent Muay Thai bringing in deadly elbows and knees. Johnson is way more versed on the feet so he should eat Anheliger alive on the feet. Johnson wont win too many fights in the UFC but he should win this.

Flyweight, Charles Johnson (13-5) vs. Rafael Estevam (11-1):

Estevam is finally making his UFC debut after winning his contract on the contender series in 2022. I've been a big fan of Johnson before he came to the UFC. His striking is so good and is very good defensively. Johnson has lost his last two and unfortunately, he's been underwhelming. He would thrive in five-round fights because he doesn't press hard enough early. Estevam was so impressive in his last fight with his pressure, wrestling, BJJ, and nasty ground and pound. In the UFC across five fights Johnson has been taken down twenty-eight times. Johnson has the advantage on the feet but he's gonna be defending shot after shot. As much as I like Johnson I have to pick Estevam. Very interesting to see if Estevam is the real deal or not.

Featherweight, Lucas Alexander (8-3) vs. Jeka Saragih (13-3):

I don't understand the UFC signing Saragih when he didn't win Road to UFC. In fact, he got knocked out in the finals. He's not UFC-level in the slightest but is dangerous if he connects. Saragih is super explosive and puts everything into what he throws. Alexander has a tough UFC debut but it was to Brito and he looked much better his last fight. Saragih is gonna have a lot of issues on the outside. Alexander should be able to use his length, footwork, and counter ability to stifle Saragih. Saragih is gonna wanna push Alexander against the cage but easier said than done against a good striker. I'm interested if Alexander can add on a another impressive showing.