Bellator 301 Prelims Breakdowns (Patreon)

Heavyweight, Tyrell Fortune (13-3) vs. Marcelo Golm (10-4):

Fortune is a powerful athletic guy who can stop the fight early at any point. If he doesn't get the finish early he tends to fade. Saying that, Golm is a tough one to get out of there early. It's possible but it's more possible that Golm drags this fight out and wears on Fortune. It's heavyweight so it's tricky but I think Golm has more in the tank and more weapons to use. 

Featherweight, Timur Khizriev (13-0) vs. Justin Gonzales (14-2):

Lately, Khizriev has been showing off his striking. Most forget he's an excellent wrestler/grappler and he should use that in this fight. Gonzales is a good wrestler of his own but showed he can be controlled in his last fight. Not saying he can win the striking because he can. I do worry about if he gets hit clean cause he is a bit stiff. Khizriev is more active than Gonzales on the feet and his jab could play a big factor. Bellator has a star in Khizriev and he's the better fighter here everywhere.

Lightweight, Mike Hamel (11-5) vs. Tim Wilde (16-4-1):

I've been watching Wilde for years and he's not any different. The only difference is he's older and slower. His TDD is bad so on the feet is where he wants to be. Wilde is a wild diverse fighter. He throws everything in the kitchen sink but is blindfolded. Nothing is technical as it's all sloppy instead. Hamel sucks. He has huge gaps but is on a nice win streak. Hamel is durable and hard to put away so as the fight goes he tends to take over. Wilde I believe will get out-wrestled and Hamel will land the bigger strikes on the feet. I want Wilde to win but I don't think he will.

Flyweight, Denise Kielholtz (7-5) vs. Sumiko Inaba (6-0):

Kielholtz is an explosive fighter as to why her nickname is Miss Dynamite. Her problem is her lack of output putting it together. She's good when she goes forward but doesn't throw enough to extend her combinations. She misses more than she lands. Kielholtz is a better pocket striker but likes to hang around outside her range. Inaba is a better proficient striker. Her straight line attack are better and she actually extends on her striker. Inaba is more active on the outside and has an advantage in the clinch. I feel pretty confident in Inaba outdoing Kielholtz in a striking fight.

Catchweight, Islam Mamedov (22-3-1) vs. Killys Mota (15-3):

I'm not a fan of either of these two but unfortunately, one has to win. Mamedov is a wrestler with limited striking and basic grappling. Mota is a wild striker who has wrestled more lately but nothing pretty. Mota, I don't see out-wrestling Mamedov. As Mamedov isn't a great wrestler I just don't rate the wrestling of Mota as well. Mota is riding a win streak but I think it's get broke by Mamedov.

Lightweight, Archie Colgan (8-0) vs. Pieter Buist (17-7):

Colgan is arguably the best prospect in Bellator so we should be done with these showcase fights. Buist is experienced but he's lost his last three. Buist is a striker but is a lazy one. Everything he throws is slow and you can see it a mile away. Colgan is a clean striker but where he can dominate this fight it's with his wrestling. Buist has terrible TDD and is lost off his back. A caliber of wrestler Colgan is he should feist in this fight. Colgan by TKO is my prediction.

Flyweight, Keri Taylor-Melendez (5-0) vs. Sabriye Sengül (3-3):

I do think Melendez is bound to lose at any point. She's 39 and barely fights. She wins this because Sengul sucks. Like Melendez, Sengul has a kickboxing background but not to the extent of Melendez. Melendez is the better kickboxer and MMA fighter. Sengul looks lost out there. She has no ground game and has no idea how to close distance on her feet. Melendez should pick her apart but I believe she ends up submitting Sengul.

Bantamweight, Matheus Mattos (13-2-1) vs. Richard Palencia (10-1):

Palencia is a pain to watch as he's so boring always competing in a staring contest. I don't even know what he does well because he doesn't do anything. I don't expect anything out of him in this fight against a killer in Mattos. Mattos has problems with actually staying active but Palencia is the one coming off a bad leg break. I'm a fan of Mattos as the dude is a savage striker and I think he destroys Palencia.

Featherweight, Cody Law (7-2) vs. Jefferson Pontes (6-0):

Law was exposed after his last few fights but there is still potential with him. His wrestling is very good. Where he lacks in jiu-jitsu he makes up for it with control. On the feet, he can be repetitive and telegraphed. He does have good hands for a creditionald wrestler but it's better when he's mixing it in. He don't wanna be a wrestler that's fell in love with his striking because it's not good enough. Pontes is a BJJ guy and that's about all. Law needs work on the feet but Pontes is a deer in headlights there. He's flat-footed and is super low-volume. His wrestling doesn't look great and he's not taking Law down anyways. I'm confident Law can use his wrestling to neutralize the jiu-jitsu of Pontes. I actually look for Law to keep this fight standing where he has a good size advantage. I like Law by decision.

Welterweight, Ramazan Kuramagomedov (11-0) vs. Buddy Wallace (20-9):

Wallace has been on a run since mid-2019. He's won his last five including wins over former UFC guys in Louis Cosce and Aaron Phillips. He isn't aesthetically pleasing anywhere but benefits because of his pressure and toughness. He could be a threat in this fight if he's able to survive to round three. From a skill standpoint, Kuramagomedov is much better. Kuramagomedov is the full package. His stand-up is good as he has a diverse kickboxing game and is good at using setups and finding his shots. He's an even better wrestler and positional grappler but it's his ability to mix it up. My only concern with his is his cardio because he will slow down late in the fight. The clear path to victory is for Kuramagomedov to take this fight down to avoid the power of Wallace. I have Kuramagomedov by submission in round two.

Featherweight, Yves Landu (19-9) vs. Isao Kobayashi (27-5-2):

Both these guys are older vets who are still competitive. Landu is well-rounded and will mix it up. On the feet he has trouble at range but is diverse and throws a lot of variety. Kobayashi hasn't fought in over two years. If he's anything like he was he should dominate this fight. Landu is fun but he can be grounded and controlled and that's what I think happens. Not going too deep into this fight because there is no recent footage on Kobayashi.