DWCS 2022 Week 10 Breakdown and Predictions (Patreon)

Middleweight: Bo Nickal Vs. Donovan Beard

Tale of the tape

Bo Nickal
26-years-old
6'1"
2-0
1 KO/TKO, 1 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 3-0

Donovan Beard
32-years-old
6'2"
7-1
2 KO/TKOs, 3 Submissions
Combined opponents' record: 17-10

Pros and Cons

Pros

Bo Nickal

• Excellent wrestling
• Heavy hands
• Fast starter
• Physically strong
• Good grappling
• Submission threat
• Good left hand

Cons

• Hands too low/wide
• Throws single kicks

Donovan Beard

Pros

• Good wrestling
• Well-conditioned
• Good straight punches
• Submission threat
• Good ground and pound

Cons

• TDD lacks
• Throws single strikes
• Plodding footwork

Prediction: The attention is on the NCAA Division I wrestler Bo Nickal who is fighting for the second time in this season's contender series. He blasted through Zach Borrego in August and is fighting a tougher guy this time out. The matchmakers know what they are doing with this fight though. On paper, Beard has a nice-looking record and is the CFFC champion. When you look into it Beard was getting dominated that title fight until he pulled off the hail mary submission.  His biggest weakness is his TDD and what a terrible weakness to have against Nickal. This should be a walk in the park for Nickal and it should be another first-round finish for the NCAA wrestler.

Lightweight: Sam Patterson vs. Vinicius Cenci

Tale of the tape

Sam Patterson
26-years-old
6'4"
9-1-1
4 KO/TKOs, 4 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 70-34

Vinicius Cenci
26-years-old
height?
7-1
1 KO/TKO, 6 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 16-4

Pros and Cons

Sam Patterson

Pros

• Good one-two 
• Submission threat 
• Does well off his back 
• Good use of feints 
• Strong distance control 
• Good activity  
• Underrated Jiu-Jitsu  
• Good kicks 
• Strong long jab 
• Piston right hand 
• Good movement 
• Uses length effectively  
• Dangerous guillotine 
• Good shot-placement

Cons

• Chin high
• TDD needs some work

Vinicius Cenci

Pros

• Good output 
• Submission threat 
• Good Muay Thai knees 
• Good kicks 
• Good ground and pound

Cons

• ???

Prediction: There isn't enough footage to get a good read on Cenci. I do know enough to say he has his hands full with Patterson. Cenci hasn't fought anyone that good and has never fought a 6'4" lightweight. Not fighting in three years it's a tough ask to come back and fight Patterson. I'm high on Patterson. He's good everywhere and it's great to see a fighter that tall who knows how to use his length. The pick is Patterson and I'm extremely confident.

Flyweight: Rafael Ramos Vs. Joao Elias

Tale of the tape

Rafael Ramos
25-years-old
5'7"
10-0
3 KO/TKOs, 3 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 41-15

Joao Elias
27-years-old
5'3"
17-3-1 (1 NC)
1 KO/TKO, 11 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 80-48

Pros and Cons

Rafael Ramos

Pros

• Good jiu-jitsu
• Submission threat
• Good wrestling
• Active pressure
• Good body kicks
• Good ground and pound

Cons

• Rushes in blind at times

Joao Elias

Pros

• Forward pressure
• Compact striker
• Slick transitions
• Good wrestling
• Hits hard
• Good off his back
• Fast starter
• Submission threat
• Good output

Cons

• Can be flat-footed
• Vulnerable in exchanges
• Puts himself in submissions
• Swings wild
• Takes a lot of punishment 

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Elias
Speed: Even
Output/Volume: Elias
Kickboxing: Ramos
Striking defense: Ramos
Footwork/movement: Ramos
Wrestling: Ramos
Grappling: Ramos
More likely to finish on the mat: Ramos
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: These Brazilians come to fight and I expect a scrap in this one. I think it's gonna be a high-paced fight up until the finish. Elias can do it all by being well-rounded but has been knocked out and submitted before. Saying that he's done the same to people more times than not. Elias equally strikes and grapples but the Nova Unai guy in Ramos I see has a significant advantage. Ramos is the bigger guy on the feet so he should be able to use his length on the outside. Elias is a dog and he's gonna attempt to walk Ramos down trying to make something happen. With Ramos I think he has the clearest path to victory but I wouldn't count Elias out as all especially if Ramos is willing to trade.

Featherweight: Freddy Linares Vs. Jack Jenkins

Tale of the tape

Freddy Linares
25-years-old
5'7"
8-1
6 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 18-4

Jack Jenkins
28-years-old
5'7"
9-2
4 KO/TKOs, 3 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 35-20

Pros and Cons

Freddy Linares

Pros

• Tough as hell
• Good ground and pound
• Good right hand
• Credible wrestling
• Good in the clinch
• Good kicks

Cons

• Easily hit/no head movement
• Poor gas tank
• Sloppy grappling
• Too willing to brawl

Jack Jenkins

Pros

• Good wrestling
• Strong grappling
• Submission threat 
• Constant pressure
• Good TDD
• Good technical grappling 
• Heavy top control
• Mixes up his kicking attack
• Damaging leg kicks 
• High work rate
• Good combination 
• Rips the body
• Throws in different varieties 

Cons

• Grappling defense needs some work 
• Hands wide at times 

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Jenkins (?)
Speed: Linares
Output/Volume: Jenkins
Kickboxing: Jenkins
Striking defense: Jenkins
Footwork/movement: Jenkins
Wrestling: Jenkins
Grappling: Jenkins
More likely to finish on the mat: Jenkins
Gas tank: Jenkins

Prediction: This fight could very well be one of the best fights of the season. Linares is a scrapper that has a lot of holes but his willingness outweighs all the negative. Jenkins will bring it to him too attacking him from anywhere and everywhere. Linares could very well give him problems with his hands but more so his power. Linares is just too easily hit and I see Jenkins taking out the legs and going body-head. Jenkins can win the fight on the feet but it's the wrestling he should go to. Jenkins is easily the better wrestler and ground game he should cruise. I like Jenkins cause he's got more tools to win and should be better everywhere. 

Bantamweight: Ashiek Ajim Vs. Mateus Mendonca

Tale of the tape

Ashiek Ajim
28-years-old
5'8"
6-1
4 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 22-17

Mateus Mendonca
23-years-old
5'6"
9-0
2 KO/TKOs, 4 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 41-13-2

Pros and Cons

Ashiek Ajim

Pros

• Heavy leg kicks 
• Goes body-head well 
• Good shot placement 
• Combination striker 
• Heavy hands 
• Good check hook 
• Dangerous counter striker  
• Good vision Fast starter

Cons

• Poor cardio 
• Head sits on the centerline
• Doesn't deal well with pressure/Wilts as the fight goes

Mateus Mendonca

Pros

• Excellent BJJ 
• Good wrestling 
• Thrives in scrambles 
• Good ground and pound 
• Chain wrestles well 
• Athletic Submission threat 
• Good clinch work 
• Explosive 
• Hits hard 
• Athletic 
• Dangerous head kick 
• Well-conditioned  
• Scrappy striking

Cons

• Can be submission over position 
• Flat-footed at times 
• Can sit in the pocket too long 
• Lacks head movement at times

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Ajim
Speed: Mendonca
Output/Volume: Ajim
Kickboxing: Ajim
Striking defense: Mendonca
Footwork/movement: Ajim
Wrestling: Mendonca
Grappling: Mendonca
More likely to finish on the mat: Mendonca
Gas tank: Mendonca

Prediction: Ajim is a very good striker but cardio issues hinder that a lot. He starts first, has power, and altogether is a serious striker. Four of his fights having ended in the first round. His only loss to Kris Mourinho which doesn't look good in retrospect. Mourinho showed how to beat Ajim by surviving the power for five minutes and taking over. Mendoca is unlike anyone Ajim has fought being the high-level grappler. Mendoca is hittable so there is a chance Ajim can capitalize. I do guarantee Mendoca is far better than anyone Ajim has fought. I can't side with Ajim due to the fact he's got five minutes in him before he falls apart. I like Mendoca to survive and get the finish late in the fight.