DWCS 2022 Week 9 Breakdown and Predictions (Patreon)

Middleweight: Leon Aliu Vs. Bruno Ferreira

Tale of the tape

Leon Aliu
33-years-old
6'0"
10-1
6 KO/TKOs, 4 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 46-35-2

Bruno Ferreira
29-years-old
5'10"
8-0
5 KO/TKOs, 3 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 61-33

Pros and Cons

Leon Aliu

Pros

• Dangerous guillotine
• Heavy ground and pound
• Power kicks
• Knockout power
• Good ground and pound
• Knockout power

Cons

• Hands low
• Swings wide

Bruno Ferreira

Pros

• Good footwork
• Strong wrestling
• Heavy ground and pound 
• Explosive
• Good BJJ
• Submission threat
• Good off his back
• Physically strong
• Heavy hands
• Athletic

Cons

• Loose in positions
• Questionable cardio

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Even
Speed: Ferreira
Output/Volume: Ferreira
Kickboxing: Ferreira
Striking defense: Ferreira
Footwork/movement: Ferreira
Wrestling: Ferreira
Grappling: Ferreira
More likely to finish on the mat: Ferreira
Gas tank: Aliu

Prediction: Footage isn't great on both guys but both seem to fit the bill for the show. Between the two they both have a 100% finish rate and fourteen first-round finishes. Both seem fine no matter if the fight is standing or on the mat. I do slightly favor Ferreira with the tape I watched. As Aliu has some clubbing power his technique is a little sloppy. Ferreira isn't no technician but his punches are straighter and cleaner. Ferreira is a judo and jiu-jitsu black belt so im thinking he has a better ground game too. Aliu cant be slept on with his guillotine but jiu-jitsu as a whole I favor Ferreira.

Flyweight: Roybert Echeverria Vs. Jafel Filho

Tale of the tape

Roybert Echeverria
26-years-old
6'3"
8-1
4 KO/TKOs, 4 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 23-11

Jafel Filho
24-years-old
6'2"
6-0
5 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent's record: 26-31

Pros and Cons

Roybert Echeverria

Pros

• Explosive
• Athletic
• Powerful
• Dynamic
• Hands up
• Explosive kicks
• Heavy hands
• Credible ground game
• Chopping leg kicks
• Constant forward pressure

Cons

• Slows as the fight goes
• Will throw single strikes
• Questionable TDD

Jafel Filho

Pros

• Slick jiu-jitsu
• Big submission threat
• Good ground and pound
• Smooth back take
• Good off his back

Cons

• Easily hit
• Hands low
• Gas tank bares watching

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Echeverria
Speed: Echeverria
Output/Volume: Filho
Kickboxing: Echeverria
Striking defense: Echeverria
Footwork/movement: Even
Wrestling: Filho
Grappling: Filho
More likely to finish on the mat: Filho
Gas tank: Echeverria

Prediction: Echeverria has concerns but the footage isn't good with Filho. If Filho fights anything as he did two years ago against Luan Danger hes gonna come up short. Echeverria is a dangerous powerful guy on the feet. Filho fights tall and his hands are low being an open target for Echeverria. It will get sticky for Echeverria if the fight was to hit the mat. Filho is the toughest test to date for Echeverria but I think he passes the test. I believe Echeverria is too strong, fast, explosive, and has more in the tank as the fight goes on.

Heavyweight: Austen Lane Vs. Richard Jacobi

Tale of the tape

Austen Lane
34-years-old
6'6"
11-3
10 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 44-40

Richard Jacobi
28-years-old
6'4"
5-0-1
4 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent's record: 25-24

Pros and Cons

Austen Lane

Pros

• Fast starter
• Good knees
• Good kicks
• Heavy hands
• Athletic
• Good right-cross
• Good heavyweight cardio
• Decent wrestling
• Good ground and pound

Cons

• Weak chin
• TDD needs work
• Gets stuck on the bottom
• Lacks head movement

Richard Jacobi

Pros

• Heavy hands
• Good ground and pound
• Keeps hands up
• Good pocket striker
• Dangerous in burst
• Capable counter striker

Cons

• Stands a little squared
• Lacks footwork
• Low output
• A bit stiff
• TDD lacks
• Nothing off his back

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Lane
Speed: Lane
Output/Volume: Lane
Kickboxing: Lane
Striking defense: Jacobi
Footwork/movement: Lane
Wrestling: Lane
Grappling: Lane
More likely to finish on the mat: Jacobi
Gas tank: Lane

Prediction: Jacobi is a weird choice considering he's coming off a draw. He would've lost that fight too but his opponent got a point taken from him. Lane is old even for a heavyweight but he's been on a good run lately. He looks apart, is a finisher, and has a lot of qualities other heavyweights don't have. His only problem is his chin is shaky and a good wrestler will give him a lot of problems. Lane is a dangerous striker and his ground game has improved a lot. Jacobi can very well go in there and knockout Lane but I'm saying the opposite. Jacobi has been very underwhelming even in the fights he's finishing in. Lane struggles with heavy-handed brawlers and big guys that know how to use their weight. Jacobi just isn't that guy. I predict Lane to be far more athletic and explosive and put Jacobi away early. 

Bantamweight: Mando Gutierrez Vs. Paul Rosas Jr.

Tale of the tape

Mando Gutierrez
25-years-old
5'6"
7-1
6 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 17-12

Paul Rosas Jr
17-years-old
5'8"
5-0
1 KO/TKO, 4 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 3-3

Pros and Cons

Mando Gutierrez

Pros

• Fast starter
• Good wrestling
• Flows on top
• Good power double leg
• Hyper aggression style
• Excellent guillotine
• Big submission threat
• Submission threat
• Strong
• Solid jiu-jitsu 
• Smooth back take
• Good kicking game

Cons

• Struggles on the outside 
• TDD needs work
• Poor striking defense 
• Gives up his back

Paul Rosas Jr

Pros

• Fast starter
• Big submission threat
• Quick smooth transitions
• Slick Jiu-Jitsu 
• Good ground and pound
• Resilient pace
• Good wrestling
• High work rate 

Cons

• N/A

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Gutierrez
Speed: Gutierrez
Output/Volume: Gutierrez
Kickboxing: Gutierrez
Striking defense: Rosas
Footwork/movement: Even
Wrestling: Rosas
Grappling: Rosas
More likely to finish on the mat: Rosas
Gas tank: Rosas

Prediction: Rosas has been running through everybody so it's gonna be fun to see him against a guy like Gutierrez. Both are grapplers and on the feet, it's easy to say Gutierrez has the advantage on the feet. Rosas has spent basically no time on the feet getting takedowns right away. As Gutierrez is decent on the feet he has a lot of decencies on the feet. This fight is definitely going to the mat and you have to favor Rosas. Gutierrez has been taken down, dominated, and submitted. It's been the complete opposite for Rosas as nobody has an answer for the wrestling and ground game of Rosas. Rosas might just be 17 but is the bigger more physical guy. The pick is Rosas and I'm pretty confident.

Lightweight: Nurullo Aliev Vs. Josh Wich

Tale of the tape

Nurullo Aliev
22-years-old
5'10"
6-0
1 KO/TKO
Combined opponent's record: 29-9-2

Josh Wick
27-years-old
5'9"
12-5
3 KO/TKOs, 7 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 59-23

Pros and Cons

Nurullo Aliev

Pros

• Smothering top control
• Good wrestling
• Relentless grappling pressure
• Strikes to wrestle well
• Good ground and pound

Cons

• Labored striking
• Wide striking
• Slows as the fight goes

Josh Wick

Pros

• Submission threat
• Solid kickboxing
• Dangerous off his back
• Damaging chopping leg kicks
• Good movemen

Cons

• TDD needs work
• Throws single strikes at times
• Head is a bit stationary
• Easily pressed back

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Wick
Speed: Wick
Output/Volume: Wick
Kickboxing: Wick
Striking defense: Even
Footwork/movement: Wick
Wrestling: Aliev
Grappling: Aliev
More likely to finish on the mat: Aliev
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: There is a lot of hype coming from Aliev ahead of this fight but none of it is from me. I will say his wrestling, pressure, and ground game is at a higher level. I do think he's not as good as some think and I see him struggling if he was to get in the UFC. I've enjoyed myself more watching Wick fight but styles make fights and this is a tough one for him. Wick is the better all-around fighter but his takedown defense and inability to deal with pressure will be his downfall. I see Aliev winning minutes pressuring Wick putting him against the cage and scoring takedowns and top position. If he doesn't finish the fight I think he will do enough to get the nod from the judges.