DWCS 2022 Week 6 Breakdown and Predictions (Patreon)

Strawweight: Viktoriya Dudakova Vs. Maria Silva

Tale of the tape

Viktoriya Dudakova
23-years-old
5'6"
5-0
1 KO/TKO, 4 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 18-8

Maria Silva
26-years-old
5'3"
8-0
3 KO/TKOs, 3 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 16-1

Pros and Cons

Viktoriya Dudakova

Pros

• Excellent jiu-jitsu
• Slick off her back
• Scrambles well
• Submission threat
• Good back take
• Fast hands
• Good footwork

Cons

• Can be submission before position
• 50/50 clinch takedowns
• Will give up positions 

Maria Silva

Pros

• Excellent kickboxing
• Submission threat
• Decent wrestling
• Athletic
• Explosive
• Good movement
• Physically strong
• Fast hands
• Puts together kicks and punches together well
• Good clinch work

Cons

• TDD needs a little work

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Silva
Speed: Silva
Output/Volume: Silva
Kickboxing: Silva
Striking defense: Even
Footwork/movement: Silva
Wrestling: Silva
Grappling: Dudakova
More likely to finish on the mat: Dudakova
Gas tank: Silva

Prediction: I really like this fight between two women I think are UFC level. Silva won last season on the contender series and last fight beat top prospect Ewelina Wozniak. She's proven to be at a high level where Dudakova is beating lower level competition. Dudakova is a 2019 IMMAF European champion so shes accomplished as well. Silva has shown a more well-rounded game compared to Dudakova. Dudakova has brief flashes on the feet but its the grappling she thrives in. To get it to the mat is where I think is gonna be her downfall. Dudakova likes those upper body clinch takedowns using trips. Many times in her career in that technique other women has been able to shift their hips and land on top. Silva being the much stronger fighter I see her winning those 50/50 takedowns all day. Dudakova is good off her back but this times shes fighting an equal grappler thats stronger. On the feet Silva is gonna be more comfortable and is gonna get better as the fight goes. I like Silva confidently but Dudakova is no slouch.

Middleweight: Matej Penaz Vs. Sedriques Dumas

Tale of the tape

Matej Penaz
25-years-old
6'3"
6-0
5 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent's record: 49-40-1

Sedriques Dumas
26-years-old
6'3"
6-0
4 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 18-22

Pros and Cons

Matej Penaz

Pros

• Strong kickboxing base
• Long straight punches
• Good one-two
• Improved TDD
• Good jab
• Good ground and pound
• Good knees
• Explosive
• Good right hand
• Dangerous in burst
• Mixes in punches and kicks

Cons

• Will give up his back
• Struggles against the cage
• Vulnerable in exchanges
• Can swing too wide

SD Dumas

Pros

• Uses feints well
• Excellent kickboxing
• Hits hard
• Physically strong
• Good jab
• Strike long well
• Strong leg kicks
• Solid jiu-jitsu
• Good ground and pound
• Knockout power
• Scrambles well

Cons

• TDD needs work

Who has the advantages?

Striking: Penaz
Speed: Penaz
Output/Volume: Penaz
Kickboxing: Even
Striking defense: Dumas
Footwork/movement: Penaz
Wrestling: Dumas
Grappling: Dumas
More likely to finish on the mat: Dumas
Gas tank: Dumas

Prediction: I'm very excited for this fight between two dangerous strikers with a ton of upside. Penaz is the experienced kickboxer but I'm just as impressed with the kickboxing of Dumas if not a little more. Even though I like the striking of Penaz a little more Dumas is a bit more defensively responsible. The biggest factor is the wrestling and grappling of Dumas. Penaz has decent takedown defense but does get controlled around in the clinch. Dumas is a big dude so I'm sure he can control Penaz in positions and eventually work him down. Penaz does have issues exposing his back when getting back up and Dumas is good at taking the back. The clearest advantage for anyone in this fight is the jiu-jitsu of Dumas. The best path to victory for Penaz is to throw more output and use his speed and footwork on the outside. Dumas can use his wrestling and grappling and also make Penaz fight off his back foot. Dumas has more ways to win and he is my pick in this fight.

Featherweight: Blake Bilder Vs. Alex Morgan

Tale of the tape

Blake Bilder
32-years-old
5'8"
6-0-1
1 KO/TKO, 3 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 25-19

Alex Morgan
31-years-old
5'10"
11-4
6 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent's record: 52-25-1

Pros and Cons

Blake Bilder

Pros

• Submission threat
• Solid jiu-jitsu
• Good wrestling
• Tough as hell
• Well-conditioned
• Constant forward pressure
• Good volume
• Goes body-head well

Cons

• Too comfortable off his back
• Questionable chin

Alex Morgan

Pros

• Good straight punches
• Good counter striker
• Good clinch work
• Nice right hand
• Composed
• Good one-two
• Strong cardio
• Good shot-selection

Cons

• Head sits on the centerline
• TDD needs some work

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Morgan
Speed: Bilder
Output/Volume: Bilder
Kickboxing: Even
Striking defense: Bilder
Footwork/movement: Bilder
Wrestling: Bilder
Grappling: Bilder
More likely to finish on the mat: Bilder
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: I like this fight between two deserving guys. Morgan has fought good competition throughout his career with a lot of success. Bilder is a true warrior that is someone you want to watch every week. They match up so well which makes it difficult to break it down. Bilder on the feet I like his style but his chin is a concern. He does everything right keeping his guard up but still gets dropped through his guard. Saying that he gets better when he's hit and comes forward even stronger. Morgan is a good technical striker that isn't as good defensively. He is better now compared to his older fights though. Both are capable of taking the fight down but Bilder is the better grappler. I don't think his grappling is a huge advantage though and Morgan seems defensively responsible on the mat unless he got rocked. Both are really good conditioned fighters that can fight at a good pace consistently. I'm picking Morgan because of his level of competition. Bilder has been on the brink of losing to guys he should be smoking and having to rally back and win. Morgan is the best guy he's fought by a mile and that's why I'm leaning towards Morgan.

Lightweight: Rodrigo Lidio Vs. Mateusz Rebecki

Tale of the tape

Rodrigo Lidio
32-years-old
5'11"
12-2
10 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 80-43

Mateusz Rebecki
29-years-old
5'7"
15-1
8 KO/TKOs, 5 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 152-52

Pros and Cons

Rodrigo Lidio

Pros

• Huge knockout power
• Power right hand
• Dangerous in exchanges
• Covers distance well
• Sneaky good uppercut
• Explosive
• Dangerous knees
• Good shot-placement

Cons

• Poor TDD
• Will over-extend on punches

Mateusz Rebecki

Pros

• Submission threat
• Good wrestling
• Excellent jiu-jitsu
• Heavy overhands
• Strong top position
• Good one-two
• Constant forward pressure
• Good straight punches
• Damaging ground and pound

Cons

• Can throw wild at times

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Lidio
Speed: Rebecki
Output/Volume: Rebecki
Kickboxing: Lidio
Striking defense: Lidio
Footwork/movement: Even
Wrestling: Rebecki
Grappling: Rebecki
More likely to finish on the mat: Rebecki
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: Both these guys don't deserve to be on the contender series. Both have done enough especially Rebecki to warrant a straight-up UFC contract. Rebecki has a clear path to victory and that's to take Lidio down. Lidio has terrible takedown defense but usually gets right back up. Letting a Polish ADCC gold medalist take you down will be a bad idea. The longer Rebecki stands with Lidio the likelihood of him getting floored is likely. Lidio has that death punch power in his hands and can finish at any moment. Rebecki is gonna have to fight a perfect fight in order not to get caught. Lidio is easy to take down so I can't pick him to win this fight. I predict Rebecki to get the takedown and finish Lidio in the first round. I do like Lidio but it's unfortunate he has to fight Rebecki.

Middleweight: Yusaku Kinoshita Vs. Jose Henrique

Tale of the tape

Yusaku Kinoshita
21-years-old
6'0"
5-1
3 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 66-57

Jose Henrique
19-years-old
6'5"
5-0
4 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent's record: 9-3-1

Pros and Cons

Yusaku Kinoshita

Pros

• Good ground and pound 
• Submission threat 
• Good shot placement 
• Dangerous counter striker 
• Heavy hands 
• Good use of feints 
• Explosive  
• Good kicks

Cons

• Questionable TDD
• Gives up his back

Jose Henrique

Pros

• Good knees 
• Tough 
• Good elbows 
• Good teep kick 
• Good straight right

Cons

• Plodding footwork
• No head movement

Prediction: I wasn't aware of Kinoshita prior to this fight but it's hard not to be impressed. Henrique is interesting considering he's a six-foot-five middleweight. Someone his size it is disappointing to see him be more of a clinch fighter. He does have decent distance management but not like it should. Henrique was in a lot of danger his last fight getting socked around in round two. He showed incredible toughness but he's not gonna take those shots against Kinoshita and survive. Outside of the Kinoshita is much better on the mat. Henrique is the march larger guy but Kinoshita is the type to walk him down and land power shots. I'm not impressed with Henrique and I believe Kinoshita has this covered everywhere and walks through Henrique.