DWCS 2022 Week 3 Breakdown and Predictions (Patreon)

Flyweight: Clayton Carpenter Vs. Edgar Chairez

Tale of the tape

Clayton Carpenter
26-years-old
5'5"
5-0
2 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent's record:10-8

Edgar Chairez
26-years-old
5'7"
8-3
4 KO/TKOs, 4 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 31-16-1

Pros and Cons

Clayton Carpenter

Pros

• Strong wrestling
• Excellent ground and pound
• Powerful compact striker
• Good feints
• Explosive
• Starts strong
• Throws in combinations
• Mixes in kicks and punches
• Slick jiu-jitsu
• Heavy leg kicks

Cons

• Hands drop as the fight goes
• Suspect gas tank

Edgar Chairez

Pros

• Dangerous knees
• Submission threat
• Good clinch work
• Good calf kicks
• Good straight punches
• Fights long well
• Good in flurries
• Good kicks
• Covers distance well
• Good off his back
• Solid get-up ability

Cons

• Poor TDD
• Slows as the fight goes
• Hands low

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Carpenter
Speed: Even
Output/Volume: Carpenter
Kickboxing: Chairez
Striking defense: Carpenter
Footwork/movement: Carpenter
Wrestling: Carpenter
Grappling: Even
More likely to finish on the mat: Carpenter
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: I love the replacement for Erceg and I actually think he's a tougher fight for Carpenter now. In Ecreg Carpenter had a big advantage on the feet but Chairez is a scrapper. Chairez has that Mexican brawling style that is a scrapper on the feet and some dangerous grappling. Carpenter will be able to take this fight down at will but he will have more trouble holding him down. I do believe Carpenter is the better grappler and if Chairez can't stop from getting taken down he will eventually get caught in a sub. This fight is gonna be intriguing as long as the fight is on the feet. Carpenter fights better with the basics being the feints, combos, and power. If he doesn't press forward Chairez could chew him up from space with long punches and leg kicks. I'm predicting it to be a high-paced fight with Carpenter getting his hand raised. I like Carpenter to press forward, use combinations to close the distance, to get takedowns. Eventually, I expect Carpenter to finish Chairez with ground and pound. Chairez, I like though and I think he would bring a lot of fun to the UFC but the pick is Carpenter.

Strawweight: Sandra Lavado Vs. Karolina Wojcik

Tale of the tape

Sandra Lavado
28-years-old
6'0"?????
10-2
4 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 10-8

Karolina Wojcik
27-years-old
5'2"
62.2" reach
8-2
2 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent's record: 30-15

Pros and Cons

Sandra Lavado

• Submission threat
• Good right hand

Cons

• Weak TDD
• Low output
• Backed up too easily
• Plodding footwork
• Hands low
• Wide striking

Karolina Wojcik

Pros

• Strong in the clinch
• Good wrestling
• Physically strong
• Aggressive

Cons

• No head movement
• Moves forward in straight lines

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Even
Speed: Lavado
Output/Volume: Wojcik
Kickboxing: Lavado
Striking defense: Lavado
Footwork/movement: Wojcik
Wrestling: Wojcik
Grappling: Lavado
More likely to finish on the mat: Lavado
Gas tank: Wojcik

Prediction: Neither of these women does it for me. Neither are UFC level and are not even that exciting. There is only six finishes between eighteen wins combined. I'll say Wojcik is the more aggressive fighter and can draw out a scrap as she has before. The way I'm looking at this is Lavado is low-lever whereas Wojcik is borderline mid-tier. If you look at my pros and cons for both ladies there isn't much to look forward to. I'm siding with Wojcik due to the fact she's aggressive and throws more output.

Featherweight: Anvar Boynazarov Vs. Erik Silva

Tale of the tape

Anvar Boynazarov
33-years-old
5'9"
69.0" reach
3-0
3 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent's record: 5-12

Erik Silva
34-years-old
5'10"
8-1
4 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 52-26

Pros and Cons

Anvar Boynazarov

Pros

• Fast starter
• Heavy leg kicks
• Fight-ending knees
• Good right hook
• Solid kickboxing
• Dangerous in exchanges

Cons

• Drawn into brawls

Erik Silva

Pros

• Submission threat/Excellent RNC
• Good wrestling
• Heavy leg kicks
• Nasty ground and pound
• Diverse kickboxing
• Slick jiu-jitsu
• Explosive
• Excellent back take

Cons

• Leaves himself open

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Boynazarov
Speed: Boynazarov
Output/Volume: Even
Kickboxing: Boynazarov
Striking defense: Silva
Footwork/movement: Boynazarov
Wrestling: Silva
Grappling: Silva
More likely to finish on the mat: Silva
Gas tank: Unknown

Prediction: These guys are both older so I'm happy they are fighting each other. It's important for both considering one probably gets signed and the other likely never get a chance like this again. Not just because of the age that the winner likely gets signed but because both guys are savages. Boynzazrov is a Glory kickboxer and is a two-time muay thai world champion. In kickboxing he's awesome but in MMA it's hard to get anything off 3:10 of cage time. The thing is he's gonna be one-dimensional and Silva is the guy you don't wanna be on the mat for the first time with. That's the way I'm leaning is towards Silva. Silva isn't just a grappler as he's a dangerous striker as well. He has more tools to win and more MMA experience so I'm picking him.

Middleweight: Bo Nickal Vs. Zachary Borrego

Tale of the tape

Bo Nickal
26-years-old
6'1"
1-0
1 KO/TKO
Combined opponent's record: 0-0

Zachary Borrego
25-years-old
6'2"
77.0" reach
3-0
2 KO/TKOs
Combined opponents' record: 5-10

Pros and Cons

Pros

Bo Nickal

• Excellent wrestling
• Heavy hands
• Submission threat
• Good left hand

Cons

• Hands too low/wide
• Throws single kicks

Zachary Borrego

Pros

• Fast starter
• Good output
• Good ground and pound
• Heavy body kicks

Cons

• Loads up
• Hands too low
• Questionable chin
• Lacks head movement
• Sits in the pocket too long
• TDD needs work

Prediction: The attention is on the NCAA Division I wrestler Bo Nickal. Borrego on the other hand is an accomplished athlete as well. He was a Division II football player and was a silver medalist in the junior Olympics in taekwondo. Saying that, this fight was obviously set up for Nickal. There isn't a lot of footage on Nickal's amateur fights but it's nice seeing a wrestler knocking guys out. And with that said, Borrego isn't hard to hit and has been knocked out before. I do see Nickal being able to land that left hand but wrestling is the clear path to victory. No matter how Nickal wins I think it's important for Nickal to get a development deal and not a UFC contract.

Heavyweight: Jamal Pogues Vs. Paulo Renato Jr.

Tale of the tape

Jamal Pogues
26-years-old
6'3"
8-3
4 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 28-5

Paulo Renato Jr.
28-years-old
6'0"
10-1
7 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 34-43

Pros and Cons

Jamal Pogues

Pros

• Good grinder 
• Dominant top position
• Solid BJJ 
• Good wrestling
• Relentless pressure
• Scrambles well
• Good takedown entries
• Strikes to close the distance
• Strong cardio

Cons

• A bit one-dimensional
• Hands low

Paulo Renato Jr.

Pros

• Dangerous in burst
• Good kickboxing
• Mixes in punches and kicks
• Heavy leg kicks

Cons

• Stand squared
• Lacks head movement

Prediction: Not gonna go too deep in this one since footage on Renato is limited. It is known he has a nice kickboxing record. He was a Pan American Champion, Brazilian Champion, Five-time Gaúcho Kickboxing Champion, and a Two-time Brazilian Cup Champion. It is also worth noting is he started off at welterweight and in 2017 took a four-year layoff. When he came back he was beefed up now fighting at heavyweight. Pogues already beat a Brazilian guy with a padded record on the contender series in 2019 and he will again this time. Pogues is actually a solid prospect and still really young for the weightclass. I'm confident Pogues wins with his wrestling and ground game. If it goes longer than expected I'm positive Pogues will take over. Should be an easy fight for Pogues.