DWCS 2022 Week 4 Breakdown and Predictions (Patreon)

Lightweight: Thomas Paull Vs. Esteban Ribovics

Tale of the tape

Thomas Paull
27-years-old
5'7"
11-3
11 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent's record: 38-33

Esteban Ribovics
26-years-old
5'10"
10-0
5 KO/TKOs, 5 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 63-34

Pros and Cons

Thomas Paull

• Fast starter
• Heavy hands
• Explosive
• Heavy leg kicks
• Dangerous in exchanges

Cons

• Gives up his back
• Awful TDD
• Lost off his back
• Questionable chin
• Sits in the pocket too long
• Head sits on the centerline

Esteban Ribovics

Pros

• Fast starter
• Knockout power
• Uses angles well
• Good kimura lock
• Submission threat
• Scrambles well
• Good feints

Cons

• TDD needs some work
• Will crash the pocket carelessly

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Ribovics
Speed: Ribovics
Output/Volume: Ribovics
Kickboxing: Paull
Striking defense: Ribovics
Footwork/movement: Ribovics
Wrestling: Even
Grappling: Ribovics
More likely to finish on the mat: Ribovics
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: This fight is gonna be a banger as long as it lasts. There is a chance in this fight we see some groundwork but both are primary knockout artists. Neither don't care to take one to give one. That's worked out for Ribovics but for Paull, he's been cracked and knocked out before. Ribovics could easily crack Paull, especially where I expect them to trade in the pocket. I only see Paull winning is if he gets the knockout early. Ribovics is better on the mat easily and even on the feet is the much better striker. The pick is Ribovics because he has more ways to win. Even where Paull is most dangerous with his knockout power I think Ribovics beats him in that area as well.

Middleweight: Claudio Ribeira Vs. Ivan Valenzuela

Tale of the tape

Claudio Ribeira
31-years-old
6'1"
9-2
8 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent's record: 56-41

Ivan Valenzuela
29-years-old
6'2"
8-1
4 KO/TKOs, 3 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 36-24

Pros and Cons

Claudio Ribeiro

Pros

• Dangerous in exchanges
• Heavy hands
• Good leg kicks
• Good get-up ability/
• Excellent finishing ability 
• Dangerous in burst

Cons

• Wide striking/Sloppy
• Flat-footed
• Easily pressed back
• Vulnerable in exchanges 
• TDD needs a little work
• Struggles against the cage

Ivan Valenzuela

Pros

• Good ground and pound
• Submission threat
• Good knees
• Good defensive wrestling
• Good use of front chokes

Cons

• Poor cardio
• Flat-footed
• Low output
• Easily hit

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Even
Speed: Ribeiro
Output/Volume: Ribeiro
Kickboxing: Ribeiro
Striking defense: Ribeiro
Footwork/movement: Even
Wrestling: Valenzuela
Grappling: Valenzuela
More likely to finish on the mat: Valenzuela
Gas tank: Ribeiro

Prediction: I came into this fight expecting to pick Valenzuela but I'm not.  Valenzuela although has a lot of finishes is underwhelming. All his finishes come from flash sequences. You hardly see him beat someone down en route to a finish which is more impressive. Ribeiro isn't great and is pretty sloppy with his striking. Saying that it's been effective. His blitzing of looping hooks does come into play against someone lacking footwork and striking defense. That's Valenzuela as he doesn't use effective footwork and his head is there for the taking. In the fights he went the distance he gets hit a lot more as the fight goes on. I don't think Ribeiro is UFC level but I think he could look good here. He's more powerful and has a good gas tank. Valenzuela could take him down but he won't keep him down.

Bantamweight: Hailey Cowan Vs. Claudia Leite

Tale of the tape

Hailey Cowan
30-years-old
5'8"
69.3" reach
6-2
2 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 12-13

Claudia Leite
25-years-old
5'6"
66.1" reach
8-2
4 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 22-23

Pros and Cons

Hailey Cowan

Pros

• Athletic
• Good knees
• Good trips in the clinch
• Strong kickboxing
• Physically strong
• Strong in the clinch
• Submission threat
• Good wrestling

Cons

• Throws naked kicks
• Head sits on the centerline

Claudia Leite

Pros

• Good top position
• Strong
• Good leg kicks
• Solid jiu-jitsu
• Good back take
• Wrestles well
• Good trips in the clinch

Cons

• Reaches with her hands
• Flat-footed
• Advances in straight lines

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Cowan
Speed: Cowan
Output/Volume: Cowan
Kickboxing: Cowan
Striking defense: Cowan
Footwork/movement: Cowan
Wrestling: Leite
Grappling: Leite
More likely to finish on the mat: Leite
Gas tank: Cowan

Prediction: Between the men and the women there isn't a lot as gifted as an athlete as Cowan. Leite who didn't start her career off hot has improved leaps and bounds. The goal for Leite is to take Cowan down. Cowan has lost both times by submission so the path is there. Cowan is a good wrestler and grappler herself but the biggest advantage for both fighters goes to Cowan on the feet. I like the movement and striking/kickboxing of Cowan to be able to stick and move. Even if Leite was able to pin Cowan against the cage I think Cowan is the much stronger fighter. The pick is Cowan and I expect her to pick away at Leite.

Lightweight: Nazim Sadykhov Vs. Ahmad Suhail Hassanzada

Tale of the tape

Nazim Sadykhov
28-years-old
5'10"
6-1
4 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 12-6

Ahmad Suhail Hannanzada
26-years-old
6'1"
74.0" reach
8-1
3 KO/TKOs, 4 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 16-5

Pros and Cons

Nazim Sadykhov

Pros

• Heavy hands/Hits hard
• Physically strong
• Fast starter
• Solid TDD
• Submission threat
• Good back take
• Good knees
• Damaging ground and pound
• Good output
• High work rate

Cons

• Throws himself off balance
• Gives up his back
• Sloppy spinning kicks
• Easily put against the cage

Ahmad Suhail Hassanzada

Pros

• Submission threat
• Dangerous off his back
• Scrambles well
• Good elbows
• Good long punches
• Long jab
• Active diverse submission attack
• Good ground and pound

Cons

• Poor TDD

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Sadykhov
Speed: Even
Output/Volume: Sadykhov
Kickboxing: Hassanzada
Striking defense: Even
Footwork/movement: Sadykhov
Wrestling: Sadykhov
Grappling: Hassanzada
More likely to finish on the mat: Hassanzada
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: I thought going into this fight it would be a clear win for Sadykhov. After watching the tape on Hassanzada he is a dangerous opponent for the American. Sadykhov is a dangerous power striker that can end this fight at any time through three rounds. We haven't got to see much of the striking from Hassanzada because for some reason guys keep taking him down. I say that because on the mat is where he's best. Hassanzada has bad takedown defense but is the type of guy that can win rounds off his back as he attacks more. I don't think he has to worry about Sadykhov taking him down so we will get to see more of the striking from Hassanzada. With his stance and hand position I can easily see Sadykhov finishing Hassanzada. If Sadykhov fights composed and picks his shots I see him cruising. If he's caught slipping I can see Hassanzada jumping on his back and finishing. The pick is Sadykhov because I think his power and takedown defense is too good.

Bantamweight: Jack Cartwright Vs. Jose Johnson

Tale of the tape

Jack Cartwright
28-years-old
5'9"
10-0
3 KO/TKOs, 5 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 57-21

Jose Johnson
27-years-old
6'0"
74.0" reach
6-0
8 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 87-70

Pros and Cons

Jack Cartwright

Pros

• Submission threat
• Good jab
• Solid wrestling
• Heavy hands
• Good vision
• Excellent use of front chokes
• Good counter striker

Cons

• Telegraphs his punches at times
• TDD needs some work
• Lacks effective footwork
• Doesn't deal well with forward pressure

Jose Johnson

Pros

• Good use of his range
• Excellent muay thai
• Good leg kicks
• Athletic
• Good bodywork
• Mixes it up very well
• Throws from good angels
• Good kicks
• Explosive
• Excellent clinch work
• Lethal elbows
• Solid cardio
• Good use of teep kicks

Cons

• Poor TDD
• Grappling defense needs work
• Suspect chin

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Johnson
Speed: Johnson
Output/Volume: Johnson
Kickboxing: Johnson
Striking defense: Even
Footwork/movement: Johnson
Wrestling: Cartwright
Grappling: Cartwright
More likely to finish on the mat: Cartwright
Gas tank: Cartwright

Prediction: Johnson is what Dana White loves and that's why he's getting his second shot on the contender series. Cartwright is the former Cage Warriors champion and arguably should be signed straight to the UFC. I say arguably because his last fight wasn't a good performance winning only by DQ. Prior to that, he's looked awesome and Johnson has flashes of excellence. This is either Johnson gets the knockout or Cartwright neutralizes with his wrestling. We've seen Johnson get wrestled and dominated on the mat a few times but never has Cartwright been knocked out. It comes down to how good the wrestling of Cartwright really is. I think it is good enough to take Johnson down since that's such a huge weakness he has. I predict Cartwright to use takedowns and eventually submit Johnson.