UFC 303 Bets (Patreon)

From here on out I'm only gonna be posting bets that I actually do my homework on. I thought I could just do well off just memory but I know that's not the way to go at is. I'm not gonna force anything so my limit for each card is no more than five plays. I'm using BetOnline and each unit is $25.

4 units on Alex Pereira at -145.
Pereira just beat Jiri not even a year ago and did it with a broken toe. I love Jiri but he's not a grappler that will challenge Pereira. Jiri is this unorthodox striker that makes him dangerous but also lacks defense and who's to say he's the same fighter post-injury? I see Pereira as a -200 favorite.

2 units on Roman Dolidze at -142.
I tried not to let my hate of Smith cloud my judgment too much but after looking into the fight Dolidze should cover this fight. Smith is on the decline badly. He's coming off a win but was Petrino actually even that good? Dolidze I think is overrated. I don't like his style but he has the power and won't make a stupid mistake like Patrino did.

1 unit on Cub Swanson at +203.
Fili shouldn't be this big of a favorite so Swanson is the side. Fili is coming off a bad knockout and lost badly to Joanderson Brito not too long ago. Yeah, Cub isn't the same but he's at least not getting knocked out. I favor Fili from a technical standpoint but if Fili lets his guard down I think Cub can crack him.

1 unit on Charles Jourdain at -110.
Jourdain is hard to trust but this is a fade on Silva more than anything. Jourdain can be a top-notch fighter at points and Silva just has so many unknowns. He has a fun style where he's gonna pressure Jourdain but what's he gonna be able to do? Jourdain is a seasoned veteran and Silva hasn't really beat anyone. We get a lot of questions answered about Silva regardless.

1 unit on Vinicius de Oliveira at +205.
This is a big test for Oliveira but he is the side here. Simon is coming off two losses and to me, I've always thought he was a bit overrated. Now, he can easily go into the fight with Oliveira and just wrestle him. Oliveira is the type of fighter that you don't wanna give an inch because he can stop the fight at any moment. He has more weapons and more dangers so I like the play at the price.