LFA 188 Full-Card Breakdown (Patreon)

Bantamweight, John Sweeney (13-3) vs. Rafael do Nascimento (9-2):
Nascimento has grown on me a lot since his time in LFA. He's an excellent submission grappler and a dynamic striker. Technically he isn't good but is such a wild card. On the feet he is hittable and his takedown defense isn't great. Sweeney fought a similar fighter in Ary Farias and won a unanimous decision. I see the same here. Sweeney is a better striker and has the chin to withstand anything Nascimento can throw at him. I think if Sweeney can survive with Ary on his back he can here as well. I think Sweeney could use wrestling of his own and out-scramble Nascimento and do more damage. Winner should go to the UFC and I believe Sweeney by decision is what happens.

Bantamweight, Kasey Tanner (6-1) vs. Thiago Belo (9-7-1):
I was high on Tanner going into his fight on the Contender Series last season. He did end up losing to Jean Matsumoto but Matsumoto is better than I was even expecting. He's getting a setup fight in Belo who is not anywhere near the level as Tanner. Belo is 36 and has lost his last three. There aren't any redeeming qualities, especially with his past performances. Belo struggles with takedown defense so if Tanner just fights to his strengths he should be able to ground Belo at ease and find the finish. If he wants to look for a spectacular finish Tanner could chop down Belo on the feet. Tanner is better in every area in this fight. It's a complete mismatch.

Featherweight, Jose Delgado (6-1) vs. Lucas Faria (7-2):
I scouted Delgado before his sole defeat and really liked what I saw. Even though I still have reservations I still think Delgado is really talented. Faira I had no idea who he was coming into this fight. Probably because he hasn't fought in almost five years. I went back and watched his last fight and is a pretty good striker. At the same time he leaves his chin exposed. Delgado has been dropped before but at least has shown a lot of durability in his career. Delgado on the feet fights long, has slick striking, and dynamic kickboxing. He showed the ability to blend it all together so smoothly. His wrestling I'm not sure of but has good jiu-jitsu. The plan is to build this product out of the MMA Lab and I think he looks great against a part-time MMA fighter.

Strawweight, Leslie Hernandez (3-1) vs. Jade Jorand (4-2):
Both these girls are talented and have potential. Hernandez trains at the MMA Lab, and has a boxing background. Jorand trains out of Goat Shed and has a kickboxing background. Both these women started off losing in their pro career and hasn't lose since. I will say Hernandez should be 2-1 because she lost that fight to Cristina Brador. Her overall ability is questionable but I do like her striking. She puts her hands together really well and she's always throwing in combinations. The same could be said about Jorand. The problem with Jorand early in her career was she wasn't pulling the trigger enough. She's turned it on in her last two fights and has improved in a lot of areas like in the clinch. As I like both strikers I think Jorand is cleaner. I like her footwork, the angels she throws in, and always engaging first. Hernandez may have to use her wrestling but we're not sure what level that's on. Also, Jorand doesn't look easy to take down especially as the fight goes. I like Jorand which I believe would be an upset.

Lightweight, Cedric Katambwa (4-0) vs. Stanley Dorsainvil (2-0):
This should be a fun fight. Katambwa has the hype behind him but is already 33. I've had my doubts about him but he did look solid in his last outing. Dorsainvil is 6-0 combined as a pro and amateur. I've scouted him before but wasn't all impressed. He's athletic but is sloppy with his technique. He makes a lot of mistakes defensively like with his hand placement. Katambwa is the the cleaner striker, heavier hitter, and faster. Dorsainvil may be the better grappler but I think that's only the case in the first few minutes of the fight. I feel confident about Katambwa getting the stoppage by strikes.

Flyweight, Chance Ikei (2-0) vs. Ryan Kim (1-0):
I'm not fully sold on Ikei but he has a lot of potential. He had an upbringing in wrestling, went 5-0 as an amateur, and trains out of the MMA Lab. What worries me is he still makes a lot of mistakes like getting too aggressive and over shooting submission attempts. His biggest concern is his cardio and that's a problem, especially at 125. What I like about him is his ability to blend everything together. He throws combinations with his hands and kicks and mixes up his chain of attacks to close the distance. He's a strong wrestler and a good grappler. I'm picky at 125 so with Ikei I think there will be a time to fade him just not yet because this Kim dude is someone Ikei would find on the regional scene. There isn't a lot known about Kim but from the small clips I've seen he's lucky to even win a fight as a pro. I could be wrong because the footage sucks but Ikei should roll.

Strawweight, Quinn Williams (0-1) vs. Miriam Nazar (0-1):
With these two I only see upside in Williams. She at least has some qualities. She hits hard, can wrestle well, and has good offensive wrestling. Nazar throws output but basically flares her arms coming forward in straight lines. I see Williams winning as she's eleven years younger and the bigger fighter. With that said Williams by first-round submission.

Welterweight, Johan Rodríguez (2-0) vs. Jeremiah Robinson (1-0):
To shoot in straight, both these guys stink. They are undefeated pros but from a skill standpoint, they are both amateurs. Rodriguez has terrible cardio, no technique, and basically nothing on the feet. Robinson also has bad cardio, no takedown defense, and basically nothing stands out for him. With Rodriguez, he is at least a threat when he gets the takedown. Rodriguez has poor TDD so I think Rodriguez can muscle him down to get an eventual GNP stoppage.

Heavyweight, Leon Mackey Jr. (0-0) vs. Brent Campbell (0-0):
Mackey is a pure athlete who comes from a football background. He played college football as a defensive end for Texas Tech. He went on to be on a practice squad in the NFL and played and won a title in AFL and IFL. Campbell played football as well and although it wasn't on the same level as Mackey he still played. Campell has been in combat sports for a while competing in muay thai and grappling competitions. I've seen enough of Campbell to know he's a low-level guys. He has okay wrestling and grappling is decent for a bigger guy. Campbell is terrible on the feet having nothing to offer. Mackey may be a blind pick but I still feel good about it. Being a former top-level football player being the athlete he is that matters a lot at heavyweight. The pick is Mackey because I know he's in-shape for the division at the very least.

Lightweight, Chris Renteria (4-2) vs. Ilay Barzilay (4-0):
I wrote last time that Barzilay is bound to lose at any point because he's not as good as his record shows. Although it is a tougher fight than last he should still take this. Renteria is a physical guy that is dangerous on the mat and if he connects with one of those looping punches. Technically he's not good at all, his defense sucks, and his cardio is an issue. Barzilay may not be good technically but he's very aggressive and strong. That should come into play in this fight as it did in his last one.

Middleweight, Eric Fimbres (2-0) vs. Montè Deon Ogbonna-Morrison (3-2):
Fimbers is finally back in the cage after a year and a half layoff. Fimbers was someone on my radar when he made his pro debut because he was a six-foot-six middleweight out of Fight Ready. Ogbonna-Morrison is better than his record shows. He's not bad but has been used to put other up-and-coming talent over. Fimbres will run into problems eventually but not here. Ogbonna-Morrison is too low-volume, complacent, and just lets whoever he's fighting to dictate the pace. Fombres has a clear path to victory using his wrestling but is better everywhere.

Flyweight, Lívio Ribeiro (3-0) vs. Mauro Gutierrez (3-0):
Ribeiro comes from a jiu-jitsu background and a successful one. I do fear that's all he brings to the table in MMA though. He's won all his three fights by submission that. He's not used proper wrestling as he's just been pulling guard. Ribeiro has shown no form of striking either so it's untelling how he looks. The good thing for him is Gutierrez is a grappler as well. Gutierrez is a grappler but makes a lot of mistakes. His control isn't great and tends to give up his back. In this fight, he's gonna be much smaller. I'm not sold on Ribeiro but this is his fight to win.