Probability and Opportunity (Patreon)

We tend to think that uncommon success must come from an uncommon opportunity, and movies reinforce this belief, but the laws of probability tell us otherwise. This is why science is so cool, because it guides us aright in the situations where intuition guides us awrong.

Everything is made of the same atoms and molecules, yet new stuff happens all the time. We’re not creating any new matter or energy, just transforming it.

Similarly, if you look at uncommon success, you realize that it basically all comes from uncommon combinations of existing opportunities. You don’t need new ingredients as much as you need new recipes. Inferior ingredients put through superior processes produce superior results. It is literally possible to polish turds (think: 泥団子 (dorodango), cat poop coffee). That’s why the guy with the best computer in the world isn’t necessarily, say, the best programmer in the world. It’s why underfunded underdogs win with so much regularity. Obviously, you need a toehold, but you don’t need the title deed to the mountain to become king of the mountain. You don’t need new golf clubs, you need a new golf swing. You don’t need new matter and energy, you just need to try different transformations.

One is reminded of the words of (I think) Cicero. Someone in the Senate or something made fun of him for being of ignoble birth, of having no great ancestors, because them Romans of old loved throwing shade, and he retorted, basically, “no, yeah, dude, you’re right; the difference between you and me, though, is that your family’s greatness has ended with you, and mine has begun with me”.

You may feel that you come from nothing, starstuff; you may feel that you were born in “the” wrong place at “the” wrong time, guided incorrectly...and you may even be right, but never let that stop you from starting something.