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Thanks Sanjay for sharing this chart.

Hey Team

An example of how higher rates have crushed certain industries - Real Estate Industry employs 3,940,656 people employed in the Commercial Real Estate industry (source IBIS World) in the US as of 2023 and another 2 million plus in Residential Real Estate (Chat GPT). 

When you examine the pink line above things look pretty dire.  Rem most are paid on commissions - and there are a lot less commissions to be had these days. 

Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s March 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were down about 20% year-over-year in March. New listings are at a record low for March, the year-over-year decline was larger in March than in February. From Realtor.com:

In March, the number of homes newly-listed for sale declined by 20.1% compared to the same time last year. This is a higher rate of decline than last month’s 15.9% decrease and new listings remained 29.7% below pre-pandemic 2017 to 2019 levels.

You may still have a job, but you are certainly not making as much as you were back in the old days. 

By the way, re Commercial Real Estate - sadly things are about to get a lot worse once people start turning in the keys.  It is said it is going to be worse than 2009!

If we have any RE professionals here - let me know if this is correct.  I do know hot places like FL TX and NV are still doing well. 



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Anonymous

Canada 🇨🇦 Ontario is gaining traction. At least that’s what they are telling us. Also seeing homes with SOLD signs again. Nothing like before, but it is picking up a little.

Anonymous

Commercial RE investor here. Has been horrid. So few deals being done and banks are slow to lend. Math simply doesn’t work with rates this high. Sellers starting to adjust to new reality but it will take time…

Anonymous

Canada here 🇨🇦 Just lost a long term tech tenant to insolvency. commercial warehouse going back on the market. Interest rate hikes, and liquidity drain from their VC killed them.

Anonymous

I typically only shill James and IA, however, Gammon released a video yesterday you may find interesting... it's titled "this $20 trillion asset class is starting to collapse" and can be found on the tube if you're interested. 🍻

Anonymous

Indeed so. I'm a property inspector in California (residential and commercial) and my work has slowed to a trickle (avg 3 jobs a month) since Thanksgiving. It's rough. This is my 20th year in business, btw.

Anonymous

There is a ban of two years for foreign investors. Some loops but it has definitely slowed things down.

Anonymous

Still transacting at decent levels down here in Australia (SE QLD), certainly at a decreased level compared to 12 months ago, but still reasonable

Anonymous

Hi James, we do Industrial/commercial developments in Australia, our focus is storage/small business/owner occupied units. The market is still really strong here, probably better than ever, both rental and sale prices continue to climb steadily- but not at silly unsustainable pace. I think the covid - work from home changes may have helped this end of the market, everyone has moved out and away from the central hubs, and now our buyers and renters are mostly businesses that live close by but just dont have enough space to work from home. It frustrates me when everyone says the commercial market is toast 🥵haha

Anonymous

Real Estate Fund Manager here based out of Dallas/Fort Worth. It's ugly here. Most inverters are now buying at 40% to 50% of the after repair value compared to 75% to 85% this same time last year. There is also an unpresidented amount of commercial interest only loan ARM balloons coming due. Most folks planned to refinance but won't be able to and will get foreclosed on. If anyone here is in DFW let's connect!

Anonymous

My observation over many years is that that as the RE market goes up and down then employment levels correspond accordingly. Firstly with sales/commission people and then those that support them, admin and settlement people. The sales people that survive in the industry tend to have a strong following of repeat clients over a long period of time and this flows through to their support staff.

Anonymous

I am a realtor based in Tampa, Florida. I mainly deal in high-end condos, and I can tell you that things have slowed, but the prices are not coming down much. People are deciding not to sell and are holding the units they intend to sell. I am seeing a lot of this. Buyers are also becoming fewer. Strangely, the prices don't seem to be impacted just yet. The main takeaway is that sales are not happening as often, and units take much longer to sell. Income for agents has been dramatically impacted. If you're looking for something in Tampa, let me know.

Anonymous

I think most of the Florida market is different. There are so many people moving there. I have been watching the retail mkt in the Bay area for years and It seems like the deals are gone. I like ugly houses with good bones but now I am seeing bad rehab flips at absurd prices.

Anonymous

My husband is a home inspector in NJ.. It's so slow that he's thinking about leaving the industry.

Anonymous

My husband is an inspector as well. There is a ton of work in Texas, but that's it for the US

Anonymous

How about residential. Still booming, just offers a position there in inspection.

Anonymous

I work in hotel industry in Southwest Florida and see many people still buying homes in our area. The realtors in the area that I know have fewer listings and some mortgage brokers I know have switched jobs.

Anonymous

Hi Everyone! I'm a residential real estate agent in Orange County, CA. The real estate market here is definitely a little wonky, to say the least. Home prices seem to have bottommed out back in Nov 2022 when the median sales price was at $1085M. Today the median sales price is at $1222M, and most listing are now getting multiple offers. Demand has fallen 47% YoY, but there is still enough work for those that want to work, and willing to put in the work. There's a lot of agents who maybe feel defeated based on the national news headlines of doom and gloom in the industry. Inventory levels have made it more difficult for agents and for buyers trying to get offers accepted. The 3 year average inventory prior to covid (when the market was "normal") was 158% more inventory than today. Sellers are just not willing to sell to buy a more expensive home at a higher interest rates, which translates to a huge monthly payment and higher taxes. If rates come down from their mid sixes to five or under five percent, then it's going to get even more competitive and prices will continue to go up. The folks really feeling the pain are first time home buyers who are having to either continue to rent, or settle for less than they really want. The current situation will definitely push some agents out of the industry, however, which may not be a bad thing. We have too many agents in the industry due to the low bar of entry.