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The case for optimism is that America’s property market has found a floor. Buyers are returning but the covid-era frenzy is not. A decent spring season could, in theory, allow prices to stabilize and builders to resume construction, boosting growth without stoking inflation. The case for pessimism rests on the idea that the interaction between the property market and inflationary trends is too powerful to ignore: if buyers return to a supply-constrained housing market, price rises will follow. And if the Fed sees that such a rate-sensitive sector as property is not responding to tighter monetary policy, it may judge that it needs to be more hawkish. Unfortunately for America, and the world, the pessimistic case looks more plausible.

America’s property market suggests recession is on the way 

From The Economist

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/03/01/americas-property-market-suggests-recession-is-on-the-way

Thanks Sanjay for sharing. 

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America's property market suggests recession is on the way

S pringtime in America, which is just around the corner, brings many fine traditions. The crack of the bat on baseball diamonds. Children rolling Easter eggs on the White House lawn. Families putting out dusty, old furniture in yard sales.

Comments

Anonymous

We will find out one way or the other. Stay strong!

Anonymous

Down here is Australia, many of my peer group are worried about mortgage prices when their current fixed rate mortgages expire. These are well paid, dual income families genuinely concerned who bought expensive properties a few years ago when money was cheap. Best case scenario, household spending significantly reduces, worst case, they may have to sell. I feel the worst is yet to come for many.

Anonymous

Get some sleep James!

Anonymous

look after yourself James we all love you and care

Anonymous

What a travesty that we have let this country be run by central bankers. They care about no one and answer to no one. Bad combination.

Anonymous

I see it sitting on that cusp in NJ. Prices are dropping by 10 to 40%. Once they do, the houses r scooped up in days. 6% is still cheaper for a 350k house than rent around here. The homes closer no a mil do not move well. If they didn't sell during C19, they may be stuck w them for years like after the crash. The lady that owns my place refuses to sell because she bought it at the hight of 2008 b4 the crash. Grrr She can't make her $ back even w tax benefits. Hence I keep hunting.

Anonymous

James, I am CHALLENGING you! With the slow rate at which Gigafactories are built, Tesla cannot build 20 million cars a year by 2030.

InvestAnswers

they built Giga China from breaking ground to building first car in 12 mths. NOBODY builds a factory faster. but yes good one. Will dig into it

Anonymous

James, I am going to have to agree with you and Felix Zulauf , a market correction will occur this year.

Anonymous

Plus, every time they build a factory, they have ALREADY worked out the vertical manufacturing lines within them PLUS optimised them. Hope Giga-Mex is the small compact car & as soon as poss I am ordering one for here in Spain where we are somewhat specially challenged on the roads! LFG!!!

Anonymous

I believe we still have downside...