Patreon Cap Q&A. Fun one this week as always with lots of #'s incl BTC exp CAGR next ten years (Patreon)

IA Q&A: Bitcoin CAGR, Tesla vs BMW, Bitcoin Backed Dollar, Crypto Taxes, Bitcoin Supply, Inflation,

#Bitcoin #BMW #Tesla #BitcoinCAGRnext10Years #CryptoTaxes #Inflation This week we discuss Bitcoin, Expected CAGR over next ten years, BMW vs Tesla, Inflation, Taxes, Bitcoin Supply and so much more. 0:00 Introduction 0:19 #1 Jakey: ridiculous question but do you think anyone has thought about the US buying bitcoin and creating a crypto dollar and backing that crypto dollar by bitcoin? For a Bitcoin Backed Dollar we would need 24 Trillion Bitcoin is way too volatile to be used as money. Imagine if you had taken out a mortgage worth $100,000 in Bitcoin in Sep 2020 and converted it to US Dollars; you’d owe the bank nearly 600K today. The reason I mention this is things cut both ways. Imagine a Gold-Backed Bitcoin - you more and more gold as time goes on. Your Q makes sense - Total US Money Supply is heading towards 24T maybe more. That is 24 x the market cap of Bitcoin. So simply put, there is not enough bitcoin collateral to expand the US money supply. THe experiment was valid in the pat with the US Gold standard that failed in 1971 - the reason it failed??? INFLATION - sound familiar? 3:00 #2 "BCBetty I've wondered what would happen if inflation really took off and you had a bunch of worthless dollars will you be able to pay off your house or any loan for that matter for the original amount?" That is the beauty of borrowing :D 4:23 #3 ian ZZ: Do you think governments might actually like Bitcoin/crypto? they must be raking it in from capital gains tax on purchases and it re-distributes money from big business to people who will actually spend it instead of hoarding it, re-flating the otherwise dead economy? Excellent Q - the issue is the govt does not make that much on Capital gains as most shrewd bitcoin holders are hodling. The reason they do this is 1) timing the market is hard and 2) the volatile nature of bitcoin and 3) taxes…. Short-term capital gains can be 50% in places like CA when you add in state and federal taxes. In addition, even though you hear about 21 M coins, you always hear me say - only 18.664K are mined today (changes every ten mins). But in reality, there are only 14M coins or less. And of that 14M only 3.5M are traded. Only 3.5 million bitcoin or 25% of the total circulating supply is actively traded throughout the world, while the rest is being held long-term by investors, according to a new report by crypto analytics company Chainalysis. So they do ok, but those smart whales have vehicles to ensure 1) they do not pay ST CG and 2) they prob go to offshore jurisdictions. So not perfect. 7:25 #4 Vandermite: Was wondering if you ever thought about a few big players buying up all the bitcoins and doing nothing with them. Kinda like oil company buying a clean energy patent and burying it. If there is only a very small amount of bitcoins available, how can they have any use? You nailed why I am so excited. Supply and Demand. There will always be supply - just a Q of price . And the Genius of the Satoshi Whitepaper is Satoshis ie 100th millionth of a BTC. The divisibility is vast. 1 SAT = 0.000520 USD. $1 is 1800 SATS. Even when a Bitcoin goes to $1M 0.009285714286. The price of Bitcoin when 1 Sat = 1 US Cent is 1.0769M 9:30 #5 Walter A: Do you think the BTC average annual return will stay around 400% as it gets more stable? If not, what's a conservative figure? The true CAGR of BTC is about 202% since inception. We do not have full-year data for 2021 so far. Now the power of CAGR is you can take $1000 at 100% CAGR and you have over $1M in 10 years. So let’s play with some scenarios Assuming half the BTC inception CAGR of 200% is say 100% that would yield 56M a BITCOIN Assuming a quarter ie a 50% CAGR would yield a 3.2M bitcoin I think the CAGR of 33% is more realistic taking us to $1M But rem given my inflation calculations - $1M USD in real purchasing power ten years from now is only worth $525K My most conservative 2030 Model now is $552 - yielding a CAGR of 27% 12:10 Udo KR: Please share your thoughts about why everyone is talking about Governments banning BTC/ crypto - This is the future, banning it would set forward economies back. Also the more you ban it the more popular you make it. Wall St is already in = deep/ There is talk that when Bitcoin hits $1M per coin it may trigger some type of ban but by that time it is far too late. Distributed protocols like BitTorrent or Bitcoin make it almost impossible to shut them down. The government cannot shut down the protocol. Take Drugs in Prison…. Eventually, they give up. 14:30 Tesla vs BMW: Fun question from Shaad Hamid: What do you think about the BMW i4? The specs of that car is on par with Teslas. # better range, faster, charging stations and FSD….. you buy tesla for the tech. Surprised that BMW was slower…. That is their thing. I was married to BMW for over 20 years.