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I hope I don't Jinx our BTC move this April with this data! What do you all think BTC will do in April? (Patreon)

Published:
2021-03-27 14:38:43
Imported:
2022-03

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Comments

Anonymous

Let the history repeat!!!

Anonymous

Let’s hope it rhymes :)

Anonymous

Any practical reason for this?

Anonymous

It might go to 72.000 🔥

Anonymous

If it gets to 65k and stays around 60k that will be a good month 👌

Anonymous

I think the external drivers -- institutional buying, etc. -- are so different this year that seasonal patterns are beside the point.

Anonymous

$73K - $77K range💪🏼🚀

Anonymous

It's had a $60K ceiling in March... I feel if it breaks that it'll roll to $70-72K

Anonymous

We will know in a month from now.

Anonymous

Would you allow me to post a link to a TradingView chart? My TA skills and market understanding are surely zero compared to you, and the analysis in this chart could be wildly off. I’m not a BTC bear; I’m just seeking to understand. To keep it brief, I was looking into the inverse correlation between BTC and DXY. While I was looking into it, I noticed time lags between the two. This led me to look at one moment in DXY’s chart that I think may mirror what we are currently seeing on the BTC chart. BTC is currently running about 96 days behind the DXY. Independently of this chart I had previously come to foresee 74-80k as the BTC market top for the present bull run. I know how pessimistic that sounds, but it’s based on analysis of BTC’s previous bull runs. At any rate, the DXY comparison appears to confirm, from a totally different angle, the imminent top for BTC. I would dearly love for your comment, and love even more if you can demolish the analysis. Right now, it makes me very nervous. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/eRY0yzJK-BTC-DXY-Roadmap-of-April-s-BTC-blow-off-top/

Anonymous

To the moon 🚀🌙👨‍🚀🤘

Anonymous

I will hedge at £70k and hope I am too conservative. Especially after today's comments by Cathie Woods.

Anonymous

77k ( my INTJ number, didn't know Max Kaiser also has chosen this number )

Anonymous

This suggests that April is historically the best month for BTC?

Anonymous

71,820

Anonymous

Depends on SEC disclosures for institutional buying in April and May. If the large cooperations started to move some of their treasuries into crypto, then it’ll be a game on, and traditional predictions will be out of wack.

Anonymous

I have my trendline at 72k....if it breaks that I believe 82.5k is realistic...would be a nice Birthday supprise for sure...

InvestAnswers
>>56470336

Sure but rem BTC is a function of money flows and TA has less predictive capability for this asset class.

Anonymous

Is there a hat in play ? I think the next wave of institution come on line April but more likely May. Due diligence from Saylor conf takes time! Low 60’s end of Apr

Anonymous

I am not worried about the USD, except to try to mitigate my exposure to it. There is apparently another $3 Trillion in the pipe for infrastructure spending and US gov't having no real plan to deal with the deficit. BTC has limited supply, so should be a better bet. I am going for 5% of portfolio in BTC. I am using the BTCC ETF, because you can do options with it instead of just plain holding BTC. You can also buy that ETF in CAD, which limits your exposure to USD. CAD should do well with Canada being a resource-based economy if global inflation picks up.

Anonymous

Could you comment on government regulation. It seems the big black swan is the us government shutting bitcoin down like FDR did with gold. Any comment?

Anonymous

My best guess (hope) is 77K

Anonymous

BTC 10x in days and percentage: $1 to $10 = 336 days (4/6/11 to 3/7/12) $10 to $100 = 474 days (3/7/12 to 6/24/13) increase in days = 41.07% $100 to $1'000 = 669 days (6/24/13 to 4/24/15) increase in days = 41.14% $1'000 to $10'000 = 943 days (4/24/15 to 11/22/17) increase in days = 40.96% If BTC continues with approx. 41% increase in days, we'd reach $100'k by 7/16/2021 and $1'000'000 on 9/7/26. What do u guys think of these numbers?

Anonymous

I think 68K by the end of April 20% move from here!

Anonymous

I’m just hoping it has one last dip before April so I can get the last of my fills in. That would be the perfect birthday present 🥳

Anonymous

I hope for a consolidation to around 46k to prepare our next huge leg up into the 6 figures per BTC. I am saving some powder for that 46k range for sure. Would not be surprised if we just take off to 70k in April tho.

Anonymous

A lot depends on long term interest rates. If they keep going up to 2% like some are predicting, BTC may get to $60-62K and trade sideways.

Anonymous

There’s the perception of a market crash in April, that could spook the month into the 40s for BTC. It’s definitely going to be a wild ride.

Anonymous

My guess is 67k average on April with all ups and downs, but certainly welcome any higher price. I’m also monitoring the premium of GBTC to see if that would turn positive. Negative 10% in GBTC last month means institution exiting. Maybe the big money turning for raw Bitcoin or cheaper ETF? I recall one news channel mentioned that the big institution got in NAV on GBTC with 6-month lock up period last year then they arbitrage the premium.

InvestAnswers
>>56471635

Not a concern at all. The us govt is not concerned right now. If BTC hits $1m a coin perhaps. In the meantime they just want to collect crypto capital gains taxes.

InvestAnswers
>>56474995

I don’t see us going under 50 K for a long time. The trillion dollar market cap Level seems like a very good support level.

Anonymous

good afternoon all,first post so here goes!

Anonymous

in a range from beginning of feb till present, with the high being 58 ish and the low 44300 so looking for 100% range extension to the upside,putting us at 79,500

Anonymous

I. Response to Kathryn, there’s no trader that can reasonably guarantee a stock market crash in April. That’s more speculative than btc itself imo. My only real question is what is a no brainer percentage of our investable net worth that we should plow into btc and maybe some eth. Feel like bottom should be 3%. But still conservative at 5%. Maybe even higher? I believe @InvestAnswers is around 5%.

Anonymous

I sold a BTC covered call with 88K strike for the April 30 expiry. Do you think I am safe?

Anonymous

Well, I've hear all sorts of predictions but at this pace I cannot see the 200K thing really happening before fall.

Anonymous

Be interesting to know see the same chart for March figures over the same years and compare to 21 to see how we fared this year. Seems a very volatile month in general but held up nicely on strong support.

InvestAnswers
>>56479168

I’m way higher as it has grown so much - even up 7x plus in 7 months. Rem my avg cost basis is v low. In terms of investable net worth yes 5% is a good limit. However remember if you put in that 5% seven months ago you would now be at 35%.

Anonymous

Gotta be at least around the mid-$70k's but with the institutional inflows it's super interesting to be observing this along with insights from this channel.....thanks from a new subscriber.

Anonymous

No prediction is possible with the money tsunami that's coming... But I go with 71k (15% up from the last ATH) :D

Anonymous

🚀🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙🌙🌙

Anonymous

Hi James. I keep hearing about the flooding and potential bursting at the 3 Gorge (s) dam in China and how that might affect BTC as there is a lot of mining activity in the area that will be affected. Any thoughts on this and if so how that might affect BTC’s price?

Anonymous

I cannot see why it would have any effect on btc price. Other miners of which there are many will just win more blocks

Anonymous

I think you jinxed it. It is done ;)

Anonymous

77k by 2021-04-30, but, and, I hope that 88k strike for GC is a reality for all!

Anonymous

Not doubting the "money tsunami" is coming but I wonder what is keeping all the rich people from getting into BTC right now while it's still "cheap". Something is off. Are they waiting for their banks or their financial advisers to offer crypto?

Anonymous
>>56500120

My assumption is they’re buying it up OTC so it doesn’t drive up the price. I’d love someone else to chime in on their thoughts as well please.

Anonymous

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqfAtMKu1wo

Anonymous

There isn't too much of it available because people are buying and storing BTC for its value. (see above link for more detail please) :-)

Anonymous

A drop to $45K - $49K triggered by whales selling - they would have loaded up much earlier and will want to cash in as they wouldn't be satisfied with paper gains alone. They'd want their stack to grow. At that level, a buy back in, including institutional buying, will push prices up to $60K or so and then $66K by retail/stimulus/FOMO entrants. It will stagnate there for a while as attention will shift to the apparently fast gains in the small alt coin sector where 5x, 10x .... gains in days will appear more alluring..... $110K + by the end of the year.

Anonymous

In this scenario (Michael Beaucasin), we should sell now, lock in some profit and buy back at 45-49K. But no guarantee it will happen this way. Some Youtuber are predicting a BTC market top using the PI cycle indicator on Tradingview which would happen in the next couple of weeks or so. Haven't seen anyone mention this, not even IA.

Anonymous

The altcoin season index is currently 78 indicating it is altcoin season. Will this have an impact on BTC?

Anonymous
>>56509463

It looks like an equation made to fit to explain the past... Otherwise, what's so special about double the 350 day moving average and the 111 day moving average...? I can't see any rationale behind choosing those numbers... Other than to make them fit the data in hindsight.

Anonymous

Just out of curiosity, what is the premium on bitcoin call options for a strike price 60,000 for 1st may. Don’t have any platforms I can trade options on in UK

Anonymous

So I have a stupid question. I apologize if it's been answered on a previous video I haven't seen. What happens when all the bitcoin is mined and everyone is holding on and not using for currency. How will this affect the value? I realize supply and demand would say it would make it more valuable but if it's just being held onto and not used for currency is there a chance it would loose value?

Anonymous

Here is an excellent video about the most likely future for Bitcoin. It presents the two most likely models and what the outcomes would likely be. https://youtu.be/ROlXuArPgpk

Anonymous
>>56529812

Not a stupid question. Once it is all mined it will be a pure store of value. When someone needs/wants to buy something, say a Tesla Model Z, they will sell some BTC (or in this case transfer it). When someone needs to preserve some new found wealth (like a pay check or the sale of some asset), they will buy BTC. If someone thinks the value of BTC measured by whatever yardstick we are using in 2040 is too high they will sell and convert into another store of value, and if they they think it is undervalued compared to an alternative store of value, they will sell the alternative and buy BTC. It will be a grand balancing act, but as they say every market has a clearing price. Essentially it is the same balancing act that goes on with the USD (minus the inflation). Pick an alternative store of value, say the Swiss Franc. When people think the USD is a better store of value than the CHF they sell CHF for USD and vice versa. There will always be a price at which someone will sell their BTC and someone will buy BTC.

Anonymous

I was hoping for a dip this week as I restock my coinbase monday, damn $56k and rising

Anonymous

It will do the precise opposite of what everyone assumes it will.

Anonymous

In math we trust

Anonymous

Any invest answers merch for the people closet to the closing price in April ?

Anonymous

$65k - $135k