NEW PERK: Forward Percentile Timelines 2.0 (Patreon)

Like I said a few days ago, this week is all about updating and reuploading previous perks with new and improved data. The timelines are near and dear to my heart, and the forward timelines are now available.

Here is the link to request access. 

This spreadsheet includes six timelines, each serving their own purpose. The stats in it are presented in percentile form, comparing a player's results in each metric to the rest of the forwards in the league in that given season. They are also all pro-rated to 82 games. For the time being, the data set is limited to 2014-15 until 2019-20. That will hopefully change in the future

• Even Strength Offence vs. Defence: These compare how a player drives play (expected goals for and against) offensively vs. defensively.
• Even Strength Offence + Finishing vs. Defence: Individual finishing is a big part of this WAR model (it was with the prior one too, but was drowned out a bit in the noise of relative goals for). This timeline adds finishing to offence.
• Playdriving: A player's rank in offensive and defensive playdriving combined.
• WAR: A player's rank in total WAR.
• Playdriving Versus: Compares two players' playdriving 
• WAR Versus: Compares two players' WAR

The components of this new model are built on priors, which has strongly increased its repeatability. Playdriving numbers in particular are much more consistent than they used to be. Finishing is more of a wild card, and strong variations in it are why this model is descriptive rather than predictive (just as the previous model was descriptive due to fluctuations in on-ice shooting percentage). 

I hope that you guys enjoy this, and defence timelines will drop tomorrow.

Happy Holidays,

Jack