New bot: Very conservative alternative to Amika/Venka (Patreon)

We know March is coming. February already gave us a sneak peak of what March tastes like most years. Bearish.

I personally believe 2021 is different. My hypothesis is 2021 is an overall bullish year. But that doesn't mean we won't see corrections.

Everybody talks about corrections but I strongly believe that NO ONE can forecast accurately the exact severity of price drops.

I'm personally feeling conservative for March and bullish for the rest of 2021. Let's look at these statistics so we can understand a bit more how are the coins used by Amika and Venka performing in regards to drawdowns:

As you can see in the table above, in the last 2 months  BTC has only had a max drawdown of 30%. 72% is the max drawdown that BTC has ever experience, from top to bottom. The average drawdown during the last 2 months has been 13%. BTC tends to be more mild in terms of volatility compared to other tokens. 

EOS, on the other end has an average drawdown in the last 2 months of 63%. It's constantly jumping up and down, followed by TRX. 

If we remove these last two we are left with average drawdowns in the range of 13% to 28%.

Why drawdown matters for DCA bot settings?

It matters A LOT! Venka buys its lowest SO at 8%, Amika is more aggressive it only places its last SO at price drops of 3%. This makes it non ideal for an historically bearish month.

I don't even want to mention the drawdowns for any of these coins on March 2020. They were inflated by the beginning of the pandemic and being a bearish historical month. 

BTC had its highest drawdown in history a year ago on March.

Can we still profit with Amika/Venka next March?

If we are wrong and March turns out to be a very bullish month in 2021, Amika and Venka would have shown off massively. But personally I will keep them running only on paper trading from now.

But that doesn't mean this is over, I have prepared a third variation of Amika, called Safira. This bot introduces the following changes to the original design of Amika tailored to a shaky month:

• RSI7 4H < 68
• Buy TV signal instead of strong buy
• RSI7 3m < 70
• EOS and TRX removed
• SOs have been increased to 20%
• Volume is heavier on lower SOs

You can copy as usual this bot from the database I have it running since the morning with 8513 USDC.