Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 26 OCT 2023 - IDF Enters Gaza Strip, Humanitarian Aid Impasse Continues (Patreon)

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

Gaza Strip and Southern Israel

Hamas militants and other terror groups, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, conducted a similar number of mortar, rocket, antitank weapons, and drone strikes from the Gaza Strip on October 26. During the evening of October 25 – 26, the IDF carried out an attack into Gaza using reconnaissance in force, with light infantry supported by bulldozers and tanks. It was the largest incursion into Gaza since the start of the war. An IDF spokesperson said the raid is part of preparing the border area for the “next stages of the war.”

IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari says the Israeli army would continue limited raids into the Gaza Strip, and they “will continue all the more forcefully in the coming days.”

The IAF conducted over 250 sorties, with satellite images 📷 showing the complete destruction of entire neighborhoods in the Gaza Strip. Israeli officials said that command centers, tunnels, and firebases were targeted. Hamas militants were accused of placing firebases next to a mosque and a kindergarten. The Israeli Navy destroyed a Hamas air defense site in Khan Younis, south of Gaza City.

Israeli officials claimed they killed several Hamas militant leaders over the previous 24 hours, including the head of Hamas’s North Khan Younis rocket array, Hassan al-Abdullah, the deputy head of Hamas’s intelligence directorate, Shadi Barud, and three senior commanders of the Daraj-Tuffah Battalion - battalion’s commander, Rifaat Abbas; the deputy commander, Ibrahim Jadba; and a combat support commander, Tarek Maarouf. We cannot independently verify the claims.

The United Nations issued an advisory stating that “nowhere is safe” in Gaza as Israeli airstrikes increase. “People are left with nothing but impossible choices,” said Lynne Hastings, U.N. humanitarian coordinator for the Palestinian Territories. In a previous Situation Report, we had criticized Israel’s declaration of Al Mawasi as a safe zone while reserving the right to attack anywhere as newspeak.

United Nations 200 Blue Line Border between Israel and Lebanon and the Golan Heights

Lebanese Hezbollah did not make any attacks on Israel, with only a single drone on an Israel military position by an unknown militant group. The IDF reported that it carried out a drone strike on an antitank squad on the Lebanon border. Israeli air defenses intercepted a surface-to-air missile launched at an IDF drone.

Officials at the Galilee Hospital in Nahariya reported seven people were wounded when an Israeli drone crashed adjacent to their home in Ma’alot-Tarshiha. Five adults and two children sought treatment, with one hospitalized.

In an interview with the Associated Press, a senior Hamas official expressed frustration with Lebanese Hezbollah. Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’s political bureau, said, “Hezbollah now is working against the occupation…We appreciate this. But… we need more in order to stop the aggression on Gaza… we expect more.”

On the same day, the Lebanon-based deputy head of the Hamas political bureau, Saleh al-Arouri, said, “The battles have not begun yet,” during an interview with al-Manar.

The West Bank

There were several skirmishes between the IDF and Palestinian militants on October 26, after the Lion’s Den made a call for mass action in the West Bank on October 25. The number of protests increased significantly, with several exchanges of small-arms fire. Lion’s Den has called for a general strike on October 27, calling the action “a sword in the hand of Commander Mohammad Deif,” the head of the militant arm of Hamas.

Hamas also called for mass protests in the West Bank on October 27 and 29 to demand the opening of the Rafah border. “We call on our people throughout the homeland and outside, and on all the members of the Arab and Islamic nation, and the free people of the world, to intensify the popular mobilization in the coming days, and to demonstrate actively on Friday and Sunday under the slogan ‘Open the Rafah crossing’ and ‘Stop the genocidal war on Gaza.’”

Saleh al-Arouri, the Lebanon-based deputy head of the Hamas political bureau, also called for the people of the West Bank to “escalate the resistance by any means.”

Efforts by Hamas to get West Bank Palestinians to engage in their cause have been unsuccessful, but the October 24 calls did invigorate the protest movement and increased the number of clashes between the IDF and Palestinians.

During the evening of October 25 – 26, the IDF connected night raids, arresting 46 Palestinians and accusing them of being part of Hamas.

Israeli settlers increased the number of unprovoked attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank, with the White House calling for Tel Aviv to do more. United States President Joe Biden said, “I continue to be alarmed by extremist settlers attacking Palestinians in the West Bank,” adding that the attacks are “adding fuel to the fire. They’re attacking Palestinians in places they’re entitled to be…it has to stop now.”

Dozens of settlers from Yitzhar stormed the neighboring Palestinian village of Burin, assaulting farmers and setting fire to their vehicles. Palestinian officials accused the mob of stealing farm equipment and crops. The Yesh Din rights group said, “The Israeli policy that allows and even supports acts of revenge by settlers against innocent Palestine.”

Two Israeli teenagers were injured in a separate clash, with one suffering a serious closed head injury. The pair got into a confrontation in Rimonim and were pelted with rocks.

Missile, Drone, and Airstrikes on Israel

Hamas and aligned militant and terrorist organizations increased the number of rocket barrages, targeting Kissufim, Tel Aviv, Holon, Rishon Lezion, Ashkelon, Ashdod, Netivot, Zikim, Bnei Brak, Petah Tikva, Lod, Rishon Lezion, Holon, Rehovot, and Petah Tikva.

Petah Tikva was hit twice, causing fires in two separate apartment buildings. The second strike wounded two people. Another rocket struck a 📺 power pole and lines near Rehovotoutside of Tel Aviv, sparking a fire. Two more people were injured in Rishon Letzion.

On October 25, Hamas fired an R160 rocket toward the port city of Haifa and an Ayyash 250 rocket toward Eilat. Both missiles were intercepted. The locally produced R160 and Ayyash 250 were likely developed with direct assistance from Iran, which provides additional assistance in their production.

Al Jazeera reported that its Gaza bureau chief Wael Dahdouh’s wife and three children were killed in an Israeli air strike on the Nuseirat refugee camp, where his family had taken shelter. Another eight family members of Dahdouh were also killed. The International Press Institute called the attack “horrifying” in a statement, adding, “We condemn the killing of civilians and offer our deepest condolences to Wael Dahdouh.”

Middle East Region and Theaterwide

On October 25, the IAF conducted its fourth airstrike since the 12th on Aleppo International Airport, targeting the runway. Hezbollah or other groups will likely conduct missile strikes against Israel in the next day or two in response.

Israeli War Cabinet member Minister Benny Gantz told reporters in Tel Aviv that Israel will be “making decisions only based on our own interests. Only we will defend ourselves and every Jew.”

The Ministry of Defense of Israel plans to extend the evacuations from military exclusion zones through December 31.

Pentagon spokesperson, Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder, said there have been “at least 12 attacks in Iraq and four in Syria” since October 7. Ryder adjusted the number of U.S. service members wounded down from 24 to 21. Ryder also said that 900 U.S. troops are being deployed to the Middle East, but stressed not in Israel, as part of the “efforts to deter a broader conflict and further bolster us force protection capabilities.”

The United States is deploying multiple Patriot Missile air defense systems and plans to transfer two Iron Dome air defense systems with 300 interceptors to Israel, pending Congressional approval.

The Wall Street Journal reported that up to 500 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters received specialized combat training in Iran from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force prior to the October 7 invasion and massacres in Israel. This aligns with our assessment on October 8 that the scale of the attack, the tactics used, and the coordination exceed the capabilities of a terrorist organization and would require support from a nation-state.

In a break from messaging from Tehran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard-affiliated Tasnim News Agency wrote an article stating the Hamas rocket attacks on Israel would not have been effective if it were not for the extensive support provided by Iran. This goes against weeks of denials from Tehran, claiming they were not involved, indirectly or directly, in the October 7 invasion.

Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran, Mohammad Hassan Sheikh Ol-Islami, declared that if the “U.S. strikes Iran and its related infrastructure, the response will be 'beyond imagination.”

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 24 journalists have been killed since October 7, providing war coverage. Twenty are Palestinian, 3 Israelis, and one from Lebanon.

Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Herzog says Israel is “giving an opportunity for the hostages to be released” and called for their “immediate, unconditional release.”

“Taking hostages is a war crime. I don’t want to comment beyond that,” he said. IDF spokesman Hagari said the military has confirmed with the families of 224 hostages that a family member, or members, are being held captive in the Gaza Strip. So far, 138 hostages have been identified as foreign nationals, including 54 from Thailand, 15 from Argentina, 12 each from Germany and the U.S., six each from France and Russia, and five from Nepal.

A Hamas terror group claimed on the social media platform Telegram that up to 50 Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip have died due to Israeli air strikes. This aligns with the social intelligence we were tracking in the information space that Hamas would restart its disinformation campaign about hostage casualties. We cannot independently verify the claims; Hamas didn’t provide any evidence to support the claim, and two groups of released hostages did not report they were subject to airstrikes or explosions.

Twelve aid trucks entered Gaza through the Rafah gate carrying water and food, and six trucks from the International Committee of the Red Cross carrying medical supplies. Since Saturday, 74 trucks with relief aid have entered Gaza. Prior to the October 7 invasion of Israel, an estimated 400 trucks a day entered the Gaza Strip.

IDF spokesman Hagari reiterated that no fuel would be allowed into Gaza, denying reports of a possible fuel for hostage exchange.

President of Cyprus, Nikos Christodoulides, said his nation was prepared to be a hub for humanitarian aid if a green corridor could be created to the single port in the Gaza Strip. Christodoulides discussed the idea with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi.

European Union leaders made a formal declaration calling for a pause in fighting to support humanitarian aid shipments. In a statement, the economic bloc declared, “The European Council expresses its gravest concern for the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and calls for continued, rapid, safe and unhindered humanitarian access and aid to reach those in need through all necessary measures including humanitarian corridors and pauses for humanitarian needs.”.

Casualties

We no longer track Israeli or Palestinian casualty numbers due to serious questions about the veracity of reports from both combatants.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 38 nations reporting 238` of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 9 dead, 21 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 6 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 5 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 30 dead, 6 hostages, 6 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 12 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• Hungary – 2 hostages
• India – 2 killed, 4 unaccounted
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy – 3 dead, 1 hostage
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 5 hostages
• The Netherlands – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 3 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Philippines - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 4 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead*, 2 hostages
• Russia - 23 dead, 6 hostages
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 30 dead, 21 hostages, 54 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 21 dead, 7 missing
• United Kingdom – 10 dead, 6 unaccounted
• United States - 34 dead, 1 unaccounted, 12 hostages
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Israeli-Hamas Politics

The director of the Prime Minister’s Office, Yossi Shelley, reportedly said in a closed-door meeting that many people are to blame for the October 7 invasion and massacre but not Prime Minister Netanyahu. “The IDF chief of staff, the leaders of the protest movement, former security chiefs, all those who were against us, they’re the ones who are guilty,” Shelley reportedly said, adding, “Blame the leadership of the IDF - not Netanyahu.”

Minister of Culture and Sports of Israel, Miki Zohar, said Netanyahu and the entire government were responsible but that this was not the time to launch an investigation. Netanyahu has not taken direct responsibility for the attacks, only saying, “Everyone will have to give answers.”

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid attacks the Netanyahu administration for its inadequate response to support the citizens of Israel. “It’s possible to understand the shock and paralysis of the government. It’s hard to understand how the government hasn’t emerged from the shock.” Lapid called for better communication with the public, improved care for displaced peoples, helping small businesses, helping individual contractors who have been called up for deployment, expanding financial protection for the IDF, improved educational services for displaced peoples, increased mental health services, better security in communities, and closing unnecessary government ministries and diverting their funds to the war effort.

Justice Minister Yariv Levin and Interior Minister Moshe Arbel met with legal and judicial officials to determine if it was possible to strip citizenship and residency rights from people who “deal in terror, support terror, incite terror, or identify with terrorist activity.”

After the meeting, a statement was released, saying in part, “Given the current situation, it was agreed to immediately advance legislation that would view carrying out the above activities at a time of war as sufficient grounds to rescind citizenship or residency.”

Geopolitics

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing backlash from Israel after saying Hamas isn’t a terrorist group and calling them freedom fighters.

Editor’s Note: What about the Kurds?

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Lior Haiat wrote in a tweet, ‘Israel wholeheartedly rejects the Turkish President’s harsh words about the terrorist organization Hamas. Hamas is a despicable terrorist organization worse than ISIS that brutally and intentionally murders babies, children, women, and the elderly, takes civilians hostage, and uses its own people as human shields.”

“Even the Turkish president’s attempt to defend the terrorist organization and his inciting words will not change the horrors that the whole world has seen and the unequivocal fact: Hamas = ISIS.”

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres defended himself, saying his words at the U.N. were being misinterpreted. “I am shocked by the misinterpretations by some of my statements yesterday in the Security Council – as if I was justifying acts of terror by Hamas. This is false. It was the opposite.”

“In the beginning of my intervention yesterday, I clearly stated – and I quote: ‘I have condemned unequivocally the horrifying and unprecedented 7 October acts of terror by Hamas in Israel. Nothing can justify the deliberate killing, injuring, and kidnapping of civilians – or the launching of rockets against civilian targets.’ Indeed, I spoke of the grievances of the Palestinian people, and in doing so, I also clearly stated, and I quote: ‘But the grievances of the Palestinian people cannot justify the appalling attacks by Hamas.’ And then, I went on with my intervention, referring to all my positions on all aspects of the Middle East crisis. I believe it was necessary to set the record straight – especially out of respect to the victims and to their families.”

The Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman for the Russian Federation, Maria Zakharova, confirmed that Hamas politburo member Moussa Abu Marzuk and his delegation, as well as deputy foreign ministers of Iran Ali Bagheri Kani, were in Moscow for meetings.

In a statement, the Foreign Ministry office claimed the meeting was about the release of hostages in the Gaza Strip and the evacuation of Russian nationals and other foreign nationals.

Editor’s Note: Must…remain…neutral…

The Kremlin repeated its position in its statement, calling for a two-state solution and recognition of the 1967 borders.

The Foreign Ministry of Israel was not happy with it is supposed ally hosting leaders from Hamas and Iran. “The hands of senior Hamas officials are stained with the blood of over 1,400 Israelis who were slaughtered, murdered, executed, and burned, and they are responsible for the kidnapping of over 220 Israelis, including babies, children, women, and the elderly. Israel sees the invitation of senior Hamas officials to Moscow as an obscene step that gives support to terrorism and legitimizes the atrocities of Hamas terrorists.”

At an emergency meeting of the U.N. General Assembly, the foreign minister of Iran, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said that “Iran “stands ready to play its part in this very important humanitarian endeavor, along with Qatar and Turkey.”

During his speech, Amir-Abdollahian continued to use Iranian talking points, attempting to portray the nation as uninvolved and frame the war as the U.S.-Israel versus the Arab-Muslim world. We warned against “the uncontrollable consequences of the unlimited financial, arms, and operational support by the White House to the Tel Aviv regime. I say frankly to the American statesman, who are now managing the genocide in Palestine, that we do not welcome to expansion of the war in the region. But I warn, if the genocide in Gaza continues, they will not be spared from this fire.”

In a separate statement, the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also accuses the United States of “directing” the attacks Israel has been carrying out on the Gaza Strip. “America is a definite accomplice of criminals. The United States is in some way directing the crime that is being committed in Gaza…Let everyone know that in this matter and future matters, the Palestinian nation is victorious, and the future world is the world of Palestine, not the world of the Zionist regime.”

The Libyan Parliament demanded that the ambassadors and diplomatic staff of the United States, Britain, France, Italy, and any other nation that supports Israel leave immediately. “If the massacres committed by the Zionist enemy do not stop, we demand that the Libyan government suspend the export of oil and gas to the states that support it.”

Turkish President Erdogan also blasted the E.U. for only calling for a pause and not a ceasefire in Gaza. “How many more children must die before the EU Commission calls for a ceasefire? How many more tons of bombs must fall on Gaza before the United Nations Security Council can take action?”

Editor’s Note: What about the…never mind.

Russia and China vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution drafted by the U.S., which condemned Hamas, expressed support for Israel’s right to self-defense, and called for the immediate release of all hostages. China said the measure was vetoed because it didn’t call for an immediate ceasefire. The United Arab Emirates also voted against the U.S. proposal. England, Switzerland, Malta, Japan, Ghana, Gabon, France, Ecuador, and Albania voted in favor, joining the United States, while Mozambique and Brazil abstained.

After the U.S. measure failed, a Russian resolution calling for an immediate, durable, and permanent ceasefire in Gaza also failed to pass, not clearing the nine-vote minimum. Russia, China, the UAE, and Gabon voted in favor, nine members abstained, and the U.S. and United Kingdom voted no.