Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 19 OCT 2023 - Will the Rafah Border Crossing Open? (Patreon)

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

Gaza Strip and Southern Israel

There were no reports of significant fighting for the fifth day in a row. The IDF claimed that a Hamas militant was captured while trying to return to Gaza and believes the individual is a straggler from the October 7 invasion. Hamas-affiliated militias and terror organizations conducted 10 to 15 fire missions from Gaza, a significant reduction from yesterday.

Hamas officials claimed that the IAF bombed the Saint Porphyrius Greek Orthodox Church, with media sources taking a far more cautious approach in reporting the incident. Pictures from the site provided by Palestinian news agencies and on social media that were geoconfirmed showed that a building near the church was bombed. The Ministry of the Interior of Hamas later confirmed that the church was not targeted, and an aerial bomb struck a nearby building, adding that the concussion collapsed a building within the church compound, killing up to 50 people. We have no way of validating casualty claims.

The IDF claimed that an airstrike on Rafah killed the head of the Popular Resistance Committee Group, Rafat Abu Hilal. We cannot independently verify the claim. Hamas is reporting that Jamila al-Shanti, a member of the political bureau since 2021, was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Palestinian news outlets reported that the head of the Palestinian National Security Forces in the Gaza Strip, Jihad Muheisen, was killed in an airstrike.

United Nations 200 Blue Line Border between Israel and Lebanon and Northern Israel

In the north, Lebanese Hezbollah used small arms, mortar, artillery, and antitank weapons to strike twelve Israeli military positions and civilian targets. Most of the exchanges were concentrated in the Zar’it, Shtula, and Netu’a areas. The IDF reported they carried out a drone strike against Hezbollah or Hamas-aligned militants just over the Lebanon border. The firebase was launching mortars into the Israeli settlement of Malkia. Antitank weapons were fired by militants into the settlement of Manara, with no injuries reported.

The U.N. peacekeeping mission in Lebanon, UNIFIL, conducted a rescue operation on the Lebanon border with Israel after seven people reported they had become stranded. UNIFIL asked the IDF for a localized temporary ceasefire, which was honored. Six people were rescued, with one dying from injuries. Several Lebanese TV stations reported a journalist from Iran was killed. The U.N. refused to confirm the claim.

The West Bank

Up to 20 skirmishes between the IDF and Palestinian-aligned militants were reported in the West Bank, a sharp reduction from October 18. Israeli police clashed with Hamas-aligned Palestinians in the Nur Shams refugee camp in Tulkarem. Palestinian news agencies reported the attack, claiming that the group attacked the squad and set off planted explosives. The IDF responded with a drone strike, which reportedly killed three militants, with a fourth killed during a gun battle. An IED killed one and wounded nine Israeli police officers during the skirmish. The Palestinian Authority confirmed the battle and reported that five were killed. Based on the reports from both combatants, we assess the reports are valid.

Missile, Drone, and Airstrikes on Israel

Rocket attacks from Gaza and Lebanon targeted Kiryat Shmona, Metula, Ashkelon, Sderot, Ashdod, Beersheba, Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, Yehuda, Givat Shmuel, and Nahariya. Israeli medical staff reported three were wounded in Kiryat Shmona, including a pensioner and a five-year-old girl. Hamas took responsibility for firing 30 rockets at Nahariya and Shlomi, validating the IDF reports in these two settlements. Several rocket attacks from Lebanon were carried out by Palestinian-aligned members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that Lebanese Hezbollah would be held accountable for the associated attacks.

Middle East Region

Members of the Iranian Axis of Resistance attacked a U.S. military base in Syria with drones. One was shot down, with a second one striking the base, wounding several people.

The Arleigh-Burke Class destroyer USS Carney shot down three cruise missiles launched by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen after radar indicated they were “potentially” traveling toward Israel, according to Pentagon Press Secretary Brigader General Pat Ryder. The destroyer is on patrol in the Red Sea, with Pentagon officials reporting that they did not believe that Carney was the intended target.

An analysis by weapon experts, South Korean military experts, and the Associated Press confirmed that a more than trivial number of the weapons and ammunition left behind by Hamas militants on October 7 came from North Korea. Among the cache were F-7 rocket-propelled grenade launchers that had distinct design elements unique to North Korean weapons manufacturers.

A shipment from the United States of MRAPS and infantry mobility vehicles arrived at Ben Gurion airport to replace equipment captured and destroyed during the October 7 invasion by Hamas.

While there continues to be significant rhetoric from Iran and the Axis of Resistance, there remains no indication that any of the nations and organizations are preparing for significant military engagements.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

Residents of the Gaza city of Khan Younis claim an Israeli airstrike killed ten, including seven children. Gaza European Hospital Director Doctor Yousef Al-Akkad told Palestinian reports that it was a massacre, adding, “Let the world see. These are just children.”

Palestinian officials claimed that the IDF bulldozed the home of Hamas militant Ahmed Yassin Ghaidan, who was killed on July 6 in a skirmish with IDF forces in the West Bank. During the exchange, an IDF soldier was killed. Ghaidan’s home was located in the West Bank in the village of Qibya, and the IDF has a standing policy of destroying the homes of militants and terrorists accused of committing attacks. The IDF did not provide comment, and Palestinian officials did not indicate if Ghaidan’s home was occupied.

ASSESSMENT: Reprisals under the banner of legal action are a disproportionate response and historically have proven to do nothing to prevent future attacks. On the contrary, draconian measures and reprisals against non-participants only fuel additional resistance and increase violence.

The United States vetoed a Brazilian-led draft resolution in the United Nations Security Council calling for a “humanitarian pause” in the Israel-Hamas War. The U.S. vetoed the resolution because it did not contain language recognizing Israel’s right to defend itself. The measure received a vote of 12-2-1, with Russia and the United Kingdom abstaining. Russia did not provide a reason for abstaining, but it was likely due to the rejection of two amendments they tried to add to the resolution. U.K. Ambassador Barbara Woodward cited the lack of clear language on “Israel’s inherent right to self-defense.”

Russian permanent representative to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, wanted to add language calling for an “immediate, durable, and full ceasefire” and to stop attacks on civilians. The Security Council broadly rejected both amendments.

ASSESSMENT: If you’ve been following the Russia-Ukraine War, understand the 3D chess move that Nebenzia tried to make that council members saw through. Had language been added for an “immediate, durable, and full ceasefire,” even though that would be an ideal outcome, it would open the door to make the same argument in Ukraine, which would only benefit the Russian Federation. Geopolitics is a nasty business.

Egyptian-controlled state TV reported that the Rafah crossing would open on Friday. On Wednesday evening, after landing at Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany, United States President Joe Biden praised Egyptian leaders for a second time. “[Egyptian President Abdel Fattah-al] Sissi deserves some real credit because he was very accommodating,” adding that he believed he was being “very cooperative.”

Another indication that the border crossing would finally open was the confirmation by the office of President Sissi that he had reached an agreement with the U.S. President. A statement released by the President’s office said, “Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and American President Joe Biden have agreed on the sustainable delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip via the Rafah terminal.”

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for “rapid unimpeded access” to Gaza, adding that there is a critical need for “food, water, medicine and fuel now. We need it at scale, and we need it to be sustained. It is not one small operation that is required.”

Egyptian officials reported there is no deal in place to transfer fuel into Gaza but indicated negotiations are ongoing. The U.N. later announced that it would inspect all aid entering Gaza as part of the humanitarian aid deal between Israel and Egypt, brokered by the United States.

Earlier in the week, Israeli and Palestinian officials, including the Palestinian ambassador to Russia, reported that water service had been restored in southern Gaza. It remains unclear if any service was restarted and to what extent.

Russia has sent 27 tons of humanitarian aid to Egypt, earmarked for Gaza. Russian officials said the shipment included wheat, sugar, rice, and pasta and would be transferred to the Red Crescent for distribution.

President Biden said the United States was providing $100 million in humanitarian aid for Gaza and the West Bank, saying, “This money will support more than one million displaced [people] in conflict-affected Palestinians [sic], including emergency needs in Gaza.”

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced that Berlin would provide a 50 million euro aid package for civilians in the Gaza Strip.

The IDF increased the number of people being held hostage by Hamas and their coalition to 203, adding that the number is not final adding that between 100 and 200 people are not accounted for. The confirmed hostages include close to 30 children and up to 20 pensioners.

The global news network is dealing with the repercussions of the Al-Ahli Hospital explosions. British Channel 4 released a report claiming that an Israeli bomb caused the blast, while an Al Jazeera news story claimed that the blast was caused by an Iron Dome interceptor used for a ground attack disguised as a misfired missile. A senior European nation intelligence source told the French news agency that the maximum number of fatalities was 50. AFP added that their reporters had seen “dozens” of bodies after the blast. CNN reported that U.S. intelligence sources believe 100 to 300 people were killed in the explosion, and the hospital facility received only light structural damage. During a Facebook Live, Episcopal Church of Jerusalem Bishop Hosam Naoum said that the Al-Ahli Hospital was still operating. The Ministry of Health of Gaza at one point claimed 800 had been killed and then revised the number to 471 on Wednesday.

Casualties

We no longer track Israeli or Palestinian casualty numbers due to serious questions about the veracity of reports from both combatants.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 37 nations reporting 208 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 17 dead, 8 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 3 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 6 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 22 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 8 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• India – 2 killed, 4 unaccounted
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted, 1 hostage
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 2 dead, 5 unaccounted
• Philippines - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 1 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Russia - 16 dead, 8 missing, 1 hostage
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 30 dead, 17 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 13 dead* (decrease), 8 missing
• United Kingdom – 7 dead, 9 unaccounted
• United States - 31 dead, 13 unaccounted
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Ukrainian officials reported that the report that 23 citizens were killed on October 7 came from Israel, and the Foreign Ministry has not verified the report. Based on that information, we adjusted the number reportedly killed downward in alignment with our editorial policy.

Israeli-Hamas Politics

No update

Geopolitics

The United Kingdom had advised its citizens to leave Lebanon “while flights are still available,” joining the United States in issuing the highest level travel advisory. The U.S. Department of State issued a “Worldwide Caution” for all American citizens, “Due to increased tensions in various locations around the world, the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests, the Department of State advises U.S. citizens overseas to exercise increased caution,” adding that extra caution should be applied in tourist areas.

Israel removed all of its diplomats from Türkiye, including Ambassador Irit Lillian, citing security issues while insisting the move was not due to a diplomatic split. Similar decisions were made in Jordan, Morocco, and Bahrain.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak traveled to Saudi Arabia and met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, saying the pair agreed there was an urgent need to get humanitarian aid to Gaza while asking the Saudi leader to work to avoid “further escalation in the region.”

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he did not make a formal request to visit Israel.