Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 12 OCT 2023 - Israel Tells UN - Everyone Needs to Leave Northern Gaza in 24 Hours (Patreon)

Action Report

In breaking news that we don't have time to analyze, Israeli told the United Nations that all of the residents of Northern Gaza should evacuate within the next 24 hours. It is unclear if this is due to an impending ground operation or future airstrikes. 

The Israeli Air Force bombed the airports in Damascus and Aleppo, Syria, overnight, causing significant damage to the runways, according to Syrian officials. It is unclear if the IAF used missiles or other standoff weapons. An Iranian airplane with Mahan Air that was in Syrian airspace turned around after the strikes and returned to Tehran. The airline is under United States sanctions for its involvement in arms shipment to Syria. The Syrian and Russian governments condemned the attacks. Reports that the bombing happened shortly after Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's plane landed in Damascus are false. Amir-Abdollahian is on a diplomatic tour to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, likely to coordinate and bolster support for Hamas. His official travel schedule had him in Baghdad during the attack.

An IDF commander confirmed our observation that the number of rocket attacks from Gaza had declined. The IDF believes that Hamas is working to conserve its ammunition and has consumed one-third of its stockpile. During today's rocket attacks, two people were wounded in Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem. Rockets also continued to target Sderot, where five people were wounded. A rocket destroyed a home in Segev Shalom with no injuries.

Hamas released a video showing how they are using pipes to make their rockets, including stripping buried pipes from the ground to make the booster section.

The number of infiltrators has also declined, based on reports from the IDF. However, with the introduction of the exclusion zone around Gaza, it is getting harder to verify the reports independently. Given the growing presence of IDF forces in the area and the retaking of the battlefield initiative, infiltration and the deployment of attack squads will be more challenging.

Near Re'im, approximately 3.5 kilometers from the Gaza border, an infiltrator was discovered by the IDF at the Nova Peace festival site. A gun battle ensued while cameras rolled from several news agencies, with one person captured. It is unclear if the person had been in hiding since October 7 or had recently crossed the border.

In the Bedouin city of Rahat, local police shot two Israelis and wounded one by accident, believing they were Hamas infiltrators. The mayor condemned the shooting, which is said to have been caused by a dispute between families. Adding to the tension, there are hundreds of Palestinians struck in the Negev region. Despite popular belief that the walls around Gaza are an impenetrable fortress. there were already gaps, some large enough to drive vehicles through due to a lack of maintenance. Thousands of Palestinians would use the gaps daily to work under the table in agricultural jobs in the area settlements and kibbutz and then return home. Now, these workers are stuck in limbo.

There were several classes among the IDF and Israeli and Palestinian citizens in the West Bank. Hamas, Palestine Islamic Jihad, and the Aqsa Martyrs Brigade took credit for separate incidents. The most serious was in Qusra, where three Palestinians were killed on October 11. In a class with West Bank Settlers, two more Palestinians were reportedly killed when ambulances came to take away the bodies from yesterday's clashes. The Palestinian Health Ministry also reported two were shot in Yabrud by the IDF, with a 37-year-old woman killed and her son moderately injured. The Red Crescent said the car they were traveling in from Deir Jari was fired upon. An Israeli soldier was shot in the West Bank settlement of Dolev.

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine claimed responsibility for the shooting of two Jewish policemen in East Jerusalem by Herod's Gate. The gunman was shot during the attack and died.

There were three rocket attacks launched from southern Lebanon by Hezbollah.

Home Front Command Commander Major General Rafi Milo told reporters that the IDF is dealing with "shock and a big break in their [Israeli's - Ed.] trust in us." He added that his forces are focused on the evacuation of Israeli citizens who are still living in the exclusion zone near the Gaza Strip.

The spokesman for the Hamas militants, Abu Obeida, said that planning for the October 7 attack started in 2022 - which aligns with our initial assessment that there was an extensive planning, recruiting, and training phase. Obeida claimed that Hamas created the illusion of neutrality to lull the IDF into complacency. "This strategy was tremendously successful, and Israel, in its current military campaign, resorts to killing and bloodshed to cover up its failures instead of conducting a proper assessment."

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that the Royal Navy was deploying ships and surveillance aircraft in the Eastern Mediterranean to support Israel and "regional stability."

Hamas and other Palestinian leaders have called for a global day of rage on Friday. Multiple nations have enhanced security, with widespread protests expected. Israeli officials have advised expats to avoid all protests regardless of where they are in the world. Shabbat, the Jewish holy day of rest, starts at sunset on Friday.

How Did Hamas Enter Israel on October 7 in Such Large Numbers

On Saturday, Hamas breached the Israeli border fence in 29 locations. In some areas, it only required widening existing unrepaired gaps, but in others, drone-delivered IEDs were used to destroy monitors and cameras. Militants used homemade shaped charges, similar to Bangalore Torpedoes, to breach the wall. With the cameras and monitors blinded, they moved up, cut the fences, and moved through the gaps on motorbikes. After establishing a bridgehead, heavy equipment was used to create truck-size gaps, allowing up to 4,500 militants, according to Hamas, to cross the border.

There were significant battles at 13 sites, with militants reaching as far as Ofakim. Six Israeli military bases and outposts were attacked, with three overrun. Civilians were killed in at least 28 settlements by direct fire.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. The attack on October 7 was the equivalent of three battalions in size and demonstrated combined arms capabilities and previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

The Jordanian government said they were flying a shipment of humanitarian aid, including medical supplies, to Rafah, Egypt, to be provided to Gaza authorities once Cairo grants permission.

The International Committee of the Red Cross called for the immediate release of all hostages held by Hamas and that they be unharmed. "We have been in touch with both Hamas and Israeli officials about accessing those deprived of liberty. We are asking for the release of hostages unharmed. For access to those captured. For opportunities to communicate with their families. We continue this call to all parties."

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had seen the evidence of Hamas atrocities, including the bodies of people burnt alive and decapitated bodies. "We did see photographs, videos that the Israeli government shared with us. It's hard to find the right words. It's beyond what anyone would ever want to imagine, much less actually see, and God forbid experience: an infant riddled with bullets, soldiers beheaded, young people burned alive in their cars or hideaway rooms." 

In a closed-door briefing with lawmakers, the White House told Congressional members that Israel would not cut off Gaza from food, water, and medicine. It is unclear if this was achieved by diplomacy, promises from the unity government of Israel, or a change of policy due to international pressure and the legal implications of a total blockade of basic humanitarian needs. As we had previously reported, the issue of providing electricity and fuel is murky in the way that international law is written, and in other conflicts, the destruction of electrical infrastructure has become a cornerstone of military operations. 

International pushback is rapidly growing after the Israeli Air Force dropped 6,000 bombs in six days in the Gaza Strip, obliterating entire neighborhoods. Additionally, our team geoconfirmed a video showing cluster munitions being used on the main port of Gaza. Our in-house expert said that the use likely did not constitute a war crime because of the dual civil-military nature of the port but was a "reprehensible act."

Over 1,500 Palestinians have been killed, mostly civilians, in a city where 43% of the population is under 18 years old. Serious questions are being raised about how many military targets remain after the bombing campaign. The Israeli Air Force has used precision munitions in the strikes, skating on the line of what would be considered a war crime in the legal sense, which, after covering war for almost two years, we acknowledge is incredibly frustrating.

Egyptian officials continue to refuse to open the single border checkpoint to the Gaza Strip, and Israel argues that it has no legal obligation to open its borders after the declaration of war.  

Casualties

We cannot independently verify claims made by either combatant and are reporting from publicly available government sources. In war, all combatants underreport their military causalities, overreport their enemy's military casualties, and overreport civilian causalities. All numbers should be considered unverified. Additionally, organizations such as the United Nations and Red Cross only report casualty numbers after a rigorous investigative process. Because of the requirements, the numbers reported are vastly lower than reality. Thank you for your understanding.

Israel: Officials have not released an exact number of those killed, stating that it is "over 1,300," including 222 IDF soldiers and another 97 listed as prisoners. Of the 3,391 wounded, 406 are hospitalized.

There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as killed or missing, with 23 nations reporting 119 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 7 dead, 15 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 3 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 1 dead
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Brazil - 2 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 3 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Chile - 1 dead (reduction), 1 unaccounted
• China - 3 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Columbia - 2 hostages
• France - 13 dead, 17 unaccounted
• Germany - undetermined number of hostages
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy - 3 unaccounted
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 2 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Philippines - 2 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Portugal - 1 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Russia - 4 dead, 6 missing
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Spain - 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 21 dead, 16 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 7 dead, 9 missing
• United Kingdom - 4 dead, "significant number" unaccounted
• United States - 27 dead, undetermined number of missing and hostages

Some of the unaccounted were within Gaza visiting family when the hostilities started.

Hamas/Gaza: The Gaza Health Ministry reported that 1,537 had been killed and 6,600 wounded.

There have been no official statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs/State Department from other nations on dead, wounded, or missing citizens. Hamas and Gaza officials have not released any casualty numbers among militants.

Diplomatic Front

Secretary Blinken was in Israel and met with his counterparts, President Issac Herzog and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Blinken will meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Friday. Abbas condemned violence against civilians from both combatants, saying, "We reject the practices of killing civilians or abusing them on both sides because they contravene morals, religion, and international law," according to the Palestinian news agency Wafa.

The United States, France, Jordan, the United Kingdom, and Germany are pressuring Egypt to open its border crossing with Gaza, while the Cairo government says they can't because of Israeli airstrikes. The infrastructure for the cross on the Gaza side was heavily damaged by bombing attacks earlier in the week. 

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant appeared to have established a milder tone after widespread backchannel criticism of his public comments calling for unlimited warfare within the Gaza Strip. In a virtual meeting with NATO officials, Gallant told the Alliance, "We will reach the last perpetrator and planner of the massacre – every person on whose hands there is the blood of our children. It will be a long and difficult war, but the State of Israel will win. I thank you all for expressing solidarity, the clear statements, and the calls I continue to receive from my colleagues. It's not just our war; it's a war for freedom; it's a war for values."

Blinken also said that none of the $6 billion in South Korean oil payments held in a Qatar bank have been accessed. There are unconfirmed reports that the United States and Qatar have cut an unofficial deal to freeze the funds. We weren't going to include this in the report due to it being a rumor until Tehran said that if the funds were blocked, they would attack U.S. bases and interests in the region in retaliation.

Foreign ministers from Canada, Germany, and Italy are expected to arrive in Tel Aviv on Friday.

Israeli Government

Opposition leader Yair Lapid said on Thursday that his party would not join the emergency wartime government established with Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because it "will not work and will only add to the mess."

"Instead of one cabinet, there will be two cabinets, which are already at odds with each other." Lapid remained steadfast in the conditions he set, calling for the removal of ultranationalist cabinet members. "I leave my proposal, demand, a plea on the table: Let's remove from the government the extremist elements that will not allow for proper management of the war and join forces for a sane, broad, and strong government, with an effective decision-making apparatus."

Washington D.C. Still Gridlocked

In a troubling sign for military aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, U.S. southern border security, and preventing a government shutdown on November 17, Congressman Steve Scalise (R-LA) withdrew from the race for Speaker of the House. Exasperated Republican lawmakers on and off the record lamented the divide within the party, and it appears that eight days of progress has ended with the party back to square one.

Because of the composition of the House of Representatives, it only takes four Republicans to derail any potential candidate. The gap between hardliners of the Freedom Caucus and moderate Republicans is enormous. Likewise, for a Democrat to become Speaker of the House, it would require five Republicans to commit the equivalent of political suicide, and without a change in House rules, a new speaker would almost certainly face a motion to vacant the moment they were seated, which, ironically, Republicans theoretically would have the votes to pass if there was unity.

The United States Constitution does not have a "Plan B" if the House cannot confirm a Speaker.

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that the U.S. has likely delivered and committed all the aid it can to Israel, a $2 billion package, without further authorization from Congress.

As a keen-eyed subscriber pointed out, The Senate could bypass Senator Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville to end his blockade on military promotions and appointments. Instead of considering the promotions as a block, they could be voted on individually, requiring a two-thirds majority of the Senate to approve each promotion. Lawmakers are unwilling to take that approach, arguing it is unclear if a two-thirds majority could be established, the time it would take for individual hearings on over 300 promotions, and the potential for politicization of the Pentagon. Republicans argue that it is Democrats, not Tuberville, damaging national security.