Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 11 OCT 2023 - Death Toll Mounts (Patreon)

Casualties

We cannot independently verify claims made by either combatant and are reporting from publicly available government sources. In war, all combatants underreport their military causalities, overreport their enemy's military casualties, and overreport civilian causalities. All numbers should be considered unverified. Additionally, organizations such as the United Nations and Red Cross only report casualty numbers after a rigorous investigative process. Because of the requirements, the numbers reported are vastly lower than reality. Thank you for your understanding.

Israel: Officials have not released an updated figure for those killed, holding at "over 1,200," including 189 IDF soldiers and now 60 listed as prisoners. Of the 3,192 wounded, 443 are hospitalized, and among them are soldiers. Israeli officials did not provide a separate number for wounded in action.

The death toll at Kfar Aza is reported to be 250, so we are expecting the Israeli causality number to increase.

Frustration is growing among Orthodox Jews due to the slow identification process among the dead. Jewish tradition calls for burying the dead within 24 hours. Mortuary workers are overwhelmed with the number of bodies to identify and a lack of personnel to deal with the number of bodies.

There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as killed or missing, with 18 nations reporting 96 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 7 dead, 15 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 1 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 1 dead
• Brazil - 2 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Chile - 1 dead (reduction), 1 unaccounted
• Columbia - 2 hostages
• France - 11 dead, 18 unaccounted
• Germany - undetermined number of hostages
• Ireland - 1 unaccounted
• Italy - 2 unaccounted
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 2 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Philippines - 2 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Russia - 4 dead, 6 missing
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Spain - 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 20 dead, 14 hostages
• Ukraine - 3 dead, 6 missing
• United Kingdom - 4 dead, "significant number" unaccounted
• United States - 22 dead, 17 unaccounted

Some of the unaccounted were within Gaza visiting family when the hostilities started.

Hamas/Gaza: The Gaza Health Ministry reported that 1,055 had been killed and 5,184 wounded.

There have been no official statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs/State Department from other nations on dead, wounded, or missing citizens. Hamas and Gaza officials have not released any casualty numbers among militants.

While preparing this update, the Hamas-run health ministry reported that 51 were killed during overnight bombings in Gaza.

Israeli officials reported that 103 militant bodies have been recovered in Be'eri.

The Battlefront

Skirmishes against militants continued near the border of the Gaza Strip, with the IDF reporting that fighting was among stragglers from the October 7 invasion and does not represent new infiltration across the border. The Israeli Air Force carried out 450 air strikes in the last 24 hours, with explosions rumbling across the Gaza Strip and along the border of Lebanon, where Hezbollah has fired on Israeli positions.

In Kfir, a militant was found in a bomb shelter holding a "young" hostage. The 99th Division of the IDF rescued the hostage, and the militant was killed.

Sderot continues to be hit by mortars and rockets, as well as the settlement of Nirim. Rockets were fired at Tel Aviv and Ashkelon. In Ashkelon, 12 were wounded throughout the day. Ben Gurion airport has been repeatedly targeted, with holdout British Airways suspending flights to Israel today.

In the north, an Israeli M113 armored personnel carrier was destroyed by a Kornet antitank weapon near Yiron on the UN-200 Blue Line border. Antitank weapons, likely Kornets, were fired at an Israeli forward operating base near Arab-al-Aramshe on the border with Lebanon. Israel responded with artillery. Lebanon's state-run media said three civilians were wounded and ten homes damaged in Marwaheen and Duharia due to Israeli artillery. We cannot independently verify the claim.

Residents along the Lebanese border were told several times to go to shelters, and reports of a mass drone incursion from Lebanon were false.

In Haifa, the 1,200-bed Rambam Medical Center entered emergency mode and was ordered to move all patients and medical operations to underground bunkers within ten hours. The hospital is a civilian-military facility and the northern region trauma center.

Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group condemned the United States for supporting Israel, saying that the arrival of an aircraft carrier battleground “will not scare our people or the resistance movements that are ready for the confrontation" and that the arrival of the Gerald Ford proved that Israel is weak.

"The United States is a full partner of the Zionist aggression and is responsible for the killings, crimes, siege, the destruction of homes and horrifying crimes against innocent civilians.”

In the West Bank, Palestinian officials are investigating an incident in Qusra where three Israeli gunmen are accused are killing three Palestinians and wounding up to eight more.

A nationwide alert to go to shelters was issued across Israeli and turned out to be a false alarm. The IDF is investigating how the false alarms were sent and did not indicate that it was the work of hackers.

There have been numerous videos misattributed to Gaza, which are from Grozny, Aleppo, or Ukraine. A video seen millions of times claiming white phosphorus was used in Gaza was from Ukraine and showed the aftermath of thermite.

Israel is still mobilizing a force of over 300,000, with the Ministry of Defense making bellicose statements, earning a private rebuke from several nations asking to tone down the rhetoric. It is worth noting that it took Russia approximately 45 days to mobilize 300,000 in 2022, and it was a haphazard mess.

The IDF has theaterwide initiative, and the number of rocket attacks from Gaza has declined. In a sign that ground operations may start soon, the IDF has closed off the regions north of the Gaza Strip almost to Ashkelon and up to 20 kilometers east of Gaza to the Egyptian border.

Additionally, hospitals along the northern border of Lebanon have been ordered to transfer patients to hospitals in the center of Israel, indicating there is an ongoing effort to prepare facilities for war casualties.

In contrast, combat engineers are working in more than 30 locations along the Gaza Strip to repair holes in the fence and deploy landmines, which would suggest that a ground attack into Gaza is not imminent.

Hamas officials called for Palestinians in Gaza to ignore Israeli evacuation orders, saying they are only sent to promote fear and that residents should prepare to die where they live.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. The attack on October 7 was the equivalent of three battalions in size and demonstrated combined arms capabilities and previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

The United Nations reported that over 180,000 people have sought shelter at schools and hospitals run by the international organization.

The U.N. reported that staff and personnel, as well as students, had been killed by the Israeli bombing in Gaza. "Eleven UNRWA [the U.N. mission in Palestine - Ed.] staff and personnel have been killed since Saturday,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters. “Thirty UNRWA students have also been killed, and another eight have been injured,” she added.

The dead included five teachers, a gynecologist, an engineer, a counselor, and three support staff, UNRWA’s deputy director Jennifer Austin said in a separate statement to the AP. It was later clarified the deceased were killed at their homes or other areas outside of UNRWA facilities.

The Red Crescent and UNRWA both reported their headquarters were damaged in air strikes. The IDF said they were investigating the claims.

Gaza's only powerplant, which runs on diesel fuel, shut down on Wednesday after the reserve supply was exhausted. The U.N. reports that some of their facilities have food, water, and fuel for up to two weeks, but they are ill-equipped to deal with the number of refugees.

Numerous nations are reportedly working with Egypt to find a solution to open the border to allow civilians who want to leave a path out of the Gaza Strip. Visas are still available, but even outside of war, the process can take weeks.

A number of world officials and the U.N. have expressed concern over the total blockade of the enclave of 2.3 million, but as we learned in the Russia-Ukraine War, the legalities are murky, and the only power facilities off limits for attacks are nuclear and hydroelectric. It is highly likely there is no legal obligation for Israel to continue to provide electrical power due to the way the "rules of war" are written.

The other complexity is due to the density of the population and established Hamas tactics; civilian and military infrastructure is intertwined, and Hamas has a documented history of using civilians as human shields.

So far, there is no evidence that Hamas has carried out its threat to execute hostages for each Israeli bombing, but they did issue a warning for parents to delete social media apps from their children's phones and vowed to release execution videos over the coming weekend.

Hamas released a video claiming it was from today, showing a woman holding a child and embracing another, being released by militants near Gaza walking away. It was clarified by Aljazeera the video is from Saturday, during the height attacks, and was released as "proof" that women and children were not taken hostage. This is despite multiple foreign nations documenting their women and children being held hostage. Hamas has vowed that dual passport holders and foreign nationals held hostage will not be harmed, further undermining their own argument that no women and children are being held.

President of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said he was actively engaged in negotiations with Hamas to release the hostages under their control.

The IDF accused Hamas militants of perfidy, killing three who were wearing Israeli military uniforms in a gun battle near Be'eri.

Israeli Government

An emergency war cabinet has been formed in Israel between multiple parties, creating a temporary unity government. The temporary unity party does not cement Benjamin Netanyahu's control of Israeli, and according to people smarter than us, it has likely derailed his efforts to weaken the judiciary.

Previously planned October 31 local elections have been delayed for 90 days.

The Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee plans to hold a special closed-door session on Thursday regarding the war with Hamas. The panel will discuss the government’s declaration of a “special situation,” which allows the military’s Home Front Command to restrict gatherings and close off areas, as well as a government request to officially approve a general call-up of military reservists, among other matters.

Egyptian officials said they had warned their Israeli counterparts that their intelligence indicated that a significant event was being planned in Gaza. The Israeli government has acknowledged they received the warning, but it is unclear why it was dismissed or ignored. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly denied that he was warned by Egypt’s head of intelligence about Hamas’s plans before the onslaught.

In Tel Aviv, chaos erupted at the Sheba Medical Center when an ultra-nationalist group started a protest based on rumors that Hamas militants were receiving medical care. Dozens entered the hospital and briefly fought with security, with several healthcare workers spit on. Several were reportedly arrested.

Netanyahu released a statement saying that no Hamas militants who require hospitalization are being cared for by the public hospital network. The Ministry of Health called for beefing up security nationwide and expressed concerns that patients could be lynched.

The Ministry of Education plans to restart school on Sunday, moving students to remote learning.

Washington D.C. Still Gridlocked

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that the U.S. has likely delivered and committed all the aid it can to Israel, a $2 billion package, without further authorization from Congress.

The United States House convened for exactly three minutes, with no indication that any candidate has the votes to become Speaker of the House. While Steve Scalise (R-LA) is now the front-runner, at least 15 Republicans have said they will not vote for him, requiring the congressman to flip at least 11 of the holdouts. It is extremely doubtful that he will find support among Democrats.

The House has 39 days left to sit a speaker, solve the military aid question for Israeli and Ukraine, U.S. border security, and pass the 2024 budget. if this isn't completed, the U.S. government will face a shutdown on November 17.

Pressure is mounting on Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville to end his blockade on military promotions and appointments, which has left the U.S. Air Force and Navy without senior leaders and is holding up filling other positions. Tuberville is not backing down, citing social and moral issues that we won't go into as part of this report. Ask a friend.

And hanging over all of this, there is still no resolution for additional military aid to Ukraine.

OK, Bro, Whatever You Say

During a speech promising an increase in the number of airstrikes and ground operations against the Kurds in Syria, Turkish President Erdoğan condemned Israeli airstrikes and called for restraint. "Israel should not forget that if it acts more like an organization rather than a state, it’ll finish by being treated as such,” Erdoğan said, calling the attacks a "shameful method."

There is so much nuance into how we got here and we can't even begin to explain it.