Russia-Ukraine SITREP Summary for 10 SEP 2023 23:59* (Patreon)

If you're a newer Patreon, there is a bit of history. When I've announced the analyst team is taking a break (or New Year's 2023, the whole team stepped away because everyone was completely cooked), I always write, "unless World War III breaks out." Inevitably - something happens, and there has been more than one occasion of panic analysis at a Starbucks or once - using a WiFi hotspot in a car at a highway rest area.

While fighting has continued, and it has been very intense in places, there have not been any major events or territorial control changes this weekend. There haven't been any major events in the geopolitics space (the G20 nothing burger was expected). Back to full reports tomorrow - but today, another summary report because otherwise, I would mostly be making news. The analyst team spent more time this weekend trying to figure out Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey-Iran because when they geolocated the videos this weekend and looked through the intel - there weren't a lot of big moves.

Dvorichna Operational Area

This is more of a footnote, so if you hear this from Russian sources - Russian troops did make marginal gains north of Synkivka, returning to the treeline north of the village they were pushed out of last month. We did not update the map because, for the time being, Ukraine and Russia are trading the same locations. 

Svatove Operational Area

Fighting continued east of Novojehorivka, with Russian troops suffering very heavy losses of both manpower and equipment. The Russian wounded are being left behind due to Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes.

Klishchiivka Operational Area

Ukrainian forces are consolidating their gains around Andriivka, and we did geolocate two videos showing Ukrainian troops east of the railroad grade, but only to the first tree line - 50 to 100-meter advance. Not enough to adjust the map.

Two Russian units have made appeal videos asking for rotation at Klishchiivka. Russian commanders continue to throw troops at the Ukrainian lines, and we don't use that lightly or with hyperbole. It feels very propaganda-y to declare "lost cause" and "just sending their troops to die," but Russian commanders are,

A) Trying to inflict as many Ukrainian casualties as possible while suffering offensive-grade casualties (e.g. their casualties are much worse)

B) Russian area commanders are unwilling to tell the Kremlin the situation or are unwilling to accept it, so they keep throwing troops at the problem

C) Klishchiivka is viewed as critical for the defense of Bakhmut, and if the highlands are lost, at least they can hold the lowlands to prevent more artillery from moving forward...but

...very quietly, Ukrainian forces have been advancing toward Opytne, south of Bakhmut, and very slowly clearing the community gardens. We know a little bit more here of some symbolic good news in Bakhmut, but can't share the details at this time. If the answer is "C," Russian troops are slowly being flanked from the north by a creeping Ukrainian advance. And it is slow, not enough to map, but it is steady progress from the northern tip of Klishchiivka to the community gardens of Bakkhmut and...shhhhhhh.

Avdiivka Operational Area

Ukrainian forces are making marginal gains around Opytne (Donetsk International Airport), but it is worth repeating - any claims that Ukrainian forces have taken the so-called Ant Hill or have reached Vesele or the Donetsk International Airport are 100% false.

One other footnote, which isn't strategically significant but could represent a psychological victory. If Ukrainian forces can advance another 200 to 300 meters east at Pervomaiske, we'll be talking about Pisky again. There have been marginal gains over the last week.

Orikhiv Operational Area

This remains the area of the most intense fighting, and operational security is tight, except for the Russian "Beaver" (not to be confused with Ukrainian Beaver drones) Drone Company. They don't know the meaning of the word OPSEC. If it weren't for them, the world wouldn't know about a lot of Ukrainian advances.

There aren't major changes at Verbove beyond what he had previously assessed would happen once Ukrainian forces entered the manned defenses of the Surovikin Line. Russian sources are claiming that Ukrainian troops are moving through the Russian trenches, bunkers, and tunnel networks, clearing them out. Russia did its homework after the complaints in March and April 2023 about the bunkers being inadequate, so conventional artillery isn't doing much to the bunkers and tunnels. One thing that Ukrainian troops that went through NATO training are saying has been effective? Urban warfare, house-to-house, and trench clearing drills. There is a tunnel war going on that we can't see.

The last item is that Ukrainian forces have reached the northern edge of Novoprokopivka after consolidating their gains to the north and the east. We did adjust the map east of Novoprokopivka, but Ukraine's hold here isn't a firm grip.

Other Notes

If you follow other sources, you may be hearing about a Russian advance northeast of Pryyutne and wondering why we haven't said anything. We never coded that area as under Ukrainian control and had indicated in our assessment this was a no man's land. There is nothing to change on our map.

We have also read the intel about Novomaiorske and Novodonetske, but it's a similar situation; there isn't enough of an advance or indications that firm control has been established to update the map.

Right over first and pictures, or it didn't happen.