Russian- Ukraine War Flash Report - July 10, 2023 15:45 PDT - Breach! (Patreon)

Ukrainian forces have breached the first line of Russian defenses in two areas. Do not interpret this as a Ukrainian Kharkiv counteroffensive is now going to begin.

Soledar Area of Operation

Ukrainian forces have broken through the first Russian defensive line between Rozdolivka and Vesele in two locations. South of Rozdolivka in the direction of Krasnopolivka and south of Vesele in the direction of Soledar (reported yesterday).

Remember last month how the Russian Ministry of Defense repeatedly stated, "we will not be wedged!"

That has aged like room-temperature milk.

Russian troops in Sakko i Vantsetti and Mykolaivka are now in a deep salient. The hamlet of Sakko i Vantsetti is nearly indefensible (not a Russian or Ukrainian thing, it is a very hard area to defend) and is likely a gray area with Russian troops unable to do much beyond hope that a drone doesn't spot them.

Russian troops in both settlements have reached the "it is time to withdraw" point, but Russian commanders will likely cling to the salient as long as they can. The loss of Mykolaivka will cause a third breach of the Russian defense line, opening the path to Krasnopolivka down the railroad tracks.

We have maintained that Yakovlivka is the gateway to Soledar. While there is a lot of attention on Klishchiivka south of Bakhmut, the situation on the northern flank is becoming more critical for Russian forces. When you look at the Soledar area of operation in its entirety, the Ukrainian strategy becomes clear. As we noted in yesterday's Situation Report, Former PMC Wagner leaders at Gray Zone figured out what was going on a month too late.

To be clear, when Russian forces are forced to withdraw at Yakovlivka (yes, we believe this is a when, not an if, but we can't provide a timeline), it does not mean that Ukrainian forces will rush into Soledar. It does mean that Russian ground lines of communications (GLOC) into Soledar will be under Ukrainian fire control again.

Orikhiv Area of Operation

Ukrainian forces have breached the first line of Russian defense just east of Robotyne and are now striking Russian troops from two directions. Yesterday, Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops had entered Robotyne (and, of course, reported great victory against the attack). Russian videos showed a group of four Bradley infantry fight vehicles (IFV) and one Ukrainian tank under fire east of the settlement and south of the first defensive line. They were hit by artillery, and the video is several days old. This confirms both Rybar and WarGonzo's reports of the breach (July 7 and July 8, respectively). We didn't share the Russian reports of Ukrainian troops in Robotyne yesterday due to the credibility, or lack thereof, of the sources. In the past, when Ukrainian forces have made gains, Russian milbloggers will manufacture attacks that didn't happen to claim Russian forces made a successful counterattack, which also didn't happen. Rybar is infamous for this.

Assessment

This will be a topic in today's podcast. We know that people want to see the name of settlements liberated. Fighting for empty areas and breaking through Russian defense lines does not create the emotion of a flag raising. 

Ukrainian troops don't attack Russian strongholds head-on. They attack the flanks, create salients, and force "goodwill gestures" or "withdrawal to more strategically advantageous positions." This takes time, but it minimizes casualties, and after almost 18 months of war, the only answer Russia has is landmines. A lot of landmines. Ukrainian forces have come up with an answer to that problem that we won't share to support operational security. It is ingenious.

Ukraine is now using platoon-sized units supported by drones, artillery, and armor to take Russian positions one at a time. Demining activity occurs as they advance, and once completed, company-sized attacks make a breach to the next line. Platoon size units sweep and clear, demine, and repeat.

There is also a shift in the Russian information space, which has moved from "the offensive is over, and we destroyed everything" to "that settlement, defensive line, and the high point wasn't important." If it wasn't important, why was the Russian landmine density so high on the approaches to the defensive line, and why were Russian units held in place to 50% and 75% losses for "unimportant" ground? Why have reserve units been brought up into four areas of operation to try and stop the advances? Why is Russia launching spoiling attacks in Kreminna and Svatove areas of operation to try and force Ukrainian assets to move to these areas? 

Before the Ukrainian offensive started, we assessed that the Surovikin Line in southern Ukraine and the Prigozhin Line in eastern Ukraine are formidable but lacked some key defensive elements. The half-height dragon teeth are not anchored in the ground and, in many areas, are not cabled together, and there is no barbed or razor wire. The areas around these structures are likely as heavily mined as the first line of defense. There were also complaints by Russian commanders that bunkers aren't deep enough, earthen berms block Russian firing lines, and drainage was not considered. In a normal summer, drainage would be a non-issue, but it has been very stormy this year. The Russian commanders looking at the Surovikin line indicated there wasn't an easy fix to the bunker situation, stating that anything over 80 mm would punch through them.

When and if Ukrainian forces make a bigger breach. They will likely advance rather quickly for 6 to 10 kilometers - somewhere - before they reach the edge of the Surovikin or Prigozhin LInes. The question will be, how many Russian troops will be in that complex of trenches to defend the line, and what will the quality of those troops be?