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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 09 JULY 2023 23:59* - About Valery Gerasimov (Patreon)

Published:
2023-07-10 10:10:25
Imported:
2023-07

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Content

Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.

This is Report 433, which is 51 pages.

What's the big story? There is a lot of good news today - not big news - but good news.

What's the second story? In more good news, Valery Gerasimov has not been dismissed - the incompetence continues.

Podcast tomorrow!

Malcontent News cannot operate without your support, and we sincerely appreciate your generosity. Maybe share the report with a friend - if each Patreon brought in one more subscriber - ahhh - a Chief Content Officer can dream.

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Comments

TheMalcontent

We're all pretty confident that there is going to be some bigger good news announced within the next 7 to 10 days. Russian defensive lines are under massive strain in at least four areas we are watching closely.

Anonymous

1. There seems to be a shortage of ATGMs west of Yakovlivka. 2. The Gray Zone actually used the R-word instead of “attacking in a different direction” to a more advantageous position.

Anonymous

Ukraine: “I will trade one of my S-200s for several S-300/400s.”

Anonymous

Russia: “I’m your huckleberry!”

Anonymous

About the different groups of soldiers making the “I’m sure our superiors don’t know how we are being treated“ videos: presumably, they are aware of the other groups that are making videos. I’m not seeing a leap to “the leadership in general is effed up” and they don’t seem to have any questions about why they are in Ukraine in the first place. Are these really directed toward Putin and top military leadership? Are they really directed toward the Russian public to get them to stop the war? Is this just a cultural divide that I can’t cross?

Anonymous

A similar point to the last one... Presumably by now most "rank and file" Russian soldiers know that their army is sacrificing them in large numbers as a tactic. If you know your army sees you as cannon-fodder then not wasting supplies and equipment on you must make some sense. Do they really believe that Putin is unaware of this? When you're desperate you'll cling on to any hope and this is their only one.

AnaR737

The Kremlin has confirmed that Putin met Prigozhin and some thirty other Wagner commanders some time after the mutiny. I guess no one knows what transpired but it made me think that it would be awesome if Martin Scorcese could direct the scene when the Netflix series gets made. The chapter could be called "Showdown of the Dons".

Anonymous

All of this good news from Ukraine is obviously very welcome. But in case anyone is tempted to start planning their victory day celebrations just yet, this analysis by Brigadier Gen. Mark Kimmitt for the WSJ is a sobering reality-check. He doesn't consider that Ukraine has achieved much yet. (I'm not a military analyst but I think he's too harsh in this assessment, but I assume he's measuring in terms of the overall goal of liberating all occupied territories and not just the forward lines.) It's worth scanning through to his map mockup to see and hear the details of what Ukraine will eventually have to overcome when it takes on those defensive lines. And without air support! He described it as "hell" and it's hard to imagine it being accomplished without incurring devastating losses. (The US military might be able to carpet bomb their way through these defensive lines but of course Ukraine cannot.) Retired General Explains Why Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Is So Behind | WSJ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMZ58anSFF4

Anonymous
>>112610526

I tend to agree. A lot of folks see things as a very rosy situation of UA. Truthfully, you'd probably rather be in Russia's position just needing to defend large swaths of territory with manpower for centuries, at least at this time. If UA chooses to go south, it is going to be a bloody slog that might not actually succeed. I think the better option is to go East and south of Bakhmut or just straight East to Luhansk and cut Russia off up by Kharkhiv and near Mariupol. We have to see, but this certainly not a slam dunk for Ukraine, even if the good news comes from the fronts in 7-10 days.

AnaR737
>>112610526

In the short term, nothing is going to change the fact that there are 150K Russian soldiers in Zaporizhizhia. But here's hoping that some good news can change the dynamics.

Anonymous

Good read. Giving Ukraine Cluster Munitions is Necessary, Legal and Morally Justified Cluster munitions would be valuable in breaking through Russian trenches, while the threat to civilians is negligible amid Russia’s mass emplacement of unmarked minefields. Dr Jack Watling and Professor Justin Bronk 10 July 2023 6 Minute Read https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/giving-ukraine-cluster-munitions-necessary-legal-and-morally-justified

AnaR737

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/putin-is-struggling-to-solve-his-prigozhin-problem/

Anonymous
>>112621541

Mark Galeotti is very a good Kremlinologist and I have a lot of confidence in his analysis. In his "In Moscow's Shadows" podcast he said that Prighozhin was like a persistent fungal infection which kept returning. Seems apt