Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-26-22 11:00 PDT - Russia Goes All In (Patreon)

It looks like the offensive push in the east has started today in earnest, and Russian forces are going all in.

We are reading reports of 5 to 8 BTGs pushing south from Izyum, but we don't know how combat effective these units are or how accurate those numbers are.

Goal one - encircle Severodonetsk: No significant progress

Goal two - extend west from Severodonetsk salient to Slovyansk - progress

Goal three - advance to Slovyansk along the eastern shore of the Oskil River from Izyum - significant progress

Goal four - wider encirclement of Ukrainian forces by capturing Barvinkove - no to very little progress

A lot of confusing information. Here is what we think this morning look at the data we trust - a lot of locations will be listed as "contested" because there is so much contrary information.

Severodonetsk Ukrainian Salient:

• Rubizhne - disputed - majority Ukrainian control - Chechens make another false claim the city has been captured which indicates no progress 
• Oleksandrivka (Donetsk Oblast - east of Severodonetsk) - disputed - majority Ukrainian control
• Severodonetsk - Ukrainian control
• Lysychansk - Ukrainian control
• Popasna - disputed - no change since last week, heavy fighting today
• Pevomaisyk - Ukrainian counteroffensive - Russian control - quick assessment - likely trying to disrupt lines of supply and communication to Popasnya
• Borovenyky - Unknown - NASA FIRMS data shows fires/artillery strikes but there is no information from the city anywhere on what is happening

Severodonetsk Western Advance

• Kreminna - Russian control - no change - there are reports of fighting but we cannot confirm
• Stara Krasnyanka - Russian control - no change
• Torske - Russian control (captured 4/24-4/25)
• Zarichne - majority Russian control and likely full Russian control - we rate this disputed for now - 4/26
• Lyman - Ukrainian control
• Yampil - Disputed - ongoing heavy fighting - the main line of contact
• Drovinka - Ukrainian control

Izyum Eastern Shore of Oskil River Russian Offensive

• Rubtsi - captured by Russia (4/26)
• Yatskivka - captured by Russia (4/26)
• Krymky - disputed - ongoing heavy fighting - the main line of contact - there are reports that both belligerents are suffering heavy losses
• Oskil - Ukrainian control - forces at moderate risk of encirclement

Izyum Western Shore of Oskil River Russian Offensive

• Mayak - heavy fighting - Russian forces trying to advance west toward Barvinkove - main line of contact - no territorial change
• Novopavlivka - unknown - likely disputed control
• Husarivka - disputed - heavy fighting - liberated by Ukraine 4/23 - main line of contact