Need Insight and Input on Moldova and Transnistria (Patreon)

We don't have good intelligence sources in Moldova and Transnistria, but it appears the FSB is using the Gleiwitz Incident playbook to stir up -- something in the region.

We are under the impression that the Moldavian and Transnistrian governments are not taking the bait.

We know of two confirmed attacks now and reports of two more. None of this makes sense from what we know - Ukraine has been pretty much ambivalent toward Transnistria as far as we can tell, lending it's support for reunification, not keen on recognizing the Republic but certainly not engaging in anything from a militaristic stand point. 

We're also under the impression that the last thing Moldova wants is war - and that goes back almost 20 years on the Transnistria question.

We're also under the impression that the Russian military force (about 1.5K in Transnistria isn't exactly their best and brightest. That this isn't a punishment assignment (we hear the area is beautiful) but being sent to Transnistria isn't a career building post either.

That's what we THINK we know - and that's about it.

If you have insight (with receipts) or can connect us with someone who is willing to provide receipts (we will keep it off the record if need be, but we need to know who we're talking to).

tips@malcontentment.com

Thank you!