Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-19-22 11:45 PDT - Mariupol (Patreon)

The Russian Air Force is using Tu-22M3 and Tu-95 bombers to strike the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant.

The Tu-22M3 can carry up to 8 1500kg bombs in its main payload bay. The Russian "Father of All Bombs" FOAB is shrouded in mystery and questions whether a Tu-95 [correction] Bear bomber can deliver it.

People reported hearing the bombing in Mariupol from 60 miles away. The Azovstal factory is also shrouded in mystery and a lot of misinformation. A bunker network was built under the factory starting in 2015 after Russia-backed DNR separatists fired artillery rounds into the facility.

The reports of a Cold War "city" sized underground bunker designed to take multiple megatons of nuclear weapons (and wild claims of a secret biolab) are untrue.

Due to its size, scale, and construction, the steel mill is also a heavily fortified fortress. Heavily reinforced deep tunnels run under the factory to bear the weight, insulate from heat, and withstand the vibrations of steel and metals production.  This isn't unique to Azovstal; this would apply to any massive metallurgical plant on the planet.

Continued bombing in the short term will have a psychological impact versus a military one. Continuous bombing could seal off entrances, and fires will impact air quality.

In our assessment, If Russia wants to end the siege of Mariupol quickly, they won't be able to bomb their way to victory. It will require storming the plant, at scale, in a significant operation. The only other option is to starve out the defenders and their families.

That may take longer than a few days. Videos of fighting in Mariupol show Ukrainian marines and Azov Battalion members using weapons from western allies that didn't arrive in Ukraine until the end of March. This is the most substantial evidence to date that Ukrainian forces in Mariupol were getting resupplied, and likely into April