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BONUS - The Agony and Ecstasy of Nate Silver (Patreon)

Published:
2019-12-04 12:13:25
Edited:
2020-12-01 15:49:33
Imported:
2024-06

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Content

A historically bad tweet by politics guru Nate Silver has Luke reflecting on "electability" and polling culture.

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Comments

Borat Madingus

I used to listen to 538's election podcast, and in one episode Harry Enten or Nate Silver (can't recall which) lays out the statistical case against predicting US presidential elections. They're rare events, they're unlike any other lower-level election, the voter blocks change a lot between elections, the candidates change a lot between elections; US presidential elections are basically unique statistical events with a sample size of 1. Which means a model to predict one US election is statistically useless for predicting another US election, and any model that predicts an election that hasn't happened yet is statistically useless by definition. Whichever pundit that gave this insightful commentary then went on to say this statistical fact didn't make their own job totally useless for some flimsy reason I can't recall.

Mark K
>>29696164

That feel when you talk yourself out of a job. They should rebrand as "election-based entertainment" and be honest about it, like the WWE once did.