Skandies: The "nominees" (Patreon)

Not all that much suspense about who/what remains, so let's answer potential questions about near-misses and no-chances here, as well as give the top picks a little additional airtime. As a reminder, the word "nominees" is in air quotes because there's no further voting as far as the August Voting Body is concerned—placement has already been determined. However, since we can do polls here, I think I'll ask y'all which ones you'd pick in an Oscar-style runoff. (Open to all tiers.) Coming shortly, or when I wake up if I'm still asleep when this auto-posts.

Anyhoo, here we go:

Best Picture

• Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets
• Dick Johnson Is Dead
• First Cow
• Fourteen
• Lovers Rock

Overlap with Oscar nominees: None.

Just missed: Soul (#21), Mangrove (tie for #22), The Vast of Night (tie for #22), Tesla (#24), The Assistant (#25).

Not so much: Sound of Metal (#27); Mank (#47); The Father (#50), Minari (#54), Promising Young Woman (no votes); The Trial of the Chicago 7 (no votes).

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Best Director

• Steve McQueen, Lovers Rock
• Andrew Patterson, The Vast of Night
• Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
• Bill Ross IV & Turner Ross, Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets
• Dan Sallitt, Fourteen

Previous "nominations": Only McQueen, who placed 3rd for Hunger in 2009.

Overlap with Oscar nominees: None.

Just missed: Kitty Green, The Assistant (#21); Chloé Zhao, Nomadland (#22); Corneliu Porumboiu, The Whistlers (#23); Ilya Khrzhanovsky & Ilya Permyakov, DAU. Degeneration (#24); Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (#25). I'd feel uneasy about three of these five being women if not for Reichardt near the top. (Kirsten Johnson and Angela Schanelec, too. Jodie Mack. It's fine.)

Not so much: David Fincher, Mank (#31); Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round (#41); Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (#77); Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (no votes).

Quick note on Dan Sallitt: Yes, he's a longtime Skandie voter (though he never votes for his own work), and is friends with many other voters (myself included). This definitely ensures that his films get seen by most of the AVB, and I'm not gonna pretend that there couldn't possibly be any conscious or unconscious favoritism at work. However, while The Unspeakable Act was generally well liked, it didn't even place in the top 20, much less in the top five. Same for Dan as its director. So it's not as if every film he makes is automatically destined for Skandie glory simply because he's family. I for one genuinely consider Fourteen among last year's best, and would never have voted for it if I didn't. (Just ask some other Skandie voters who've made eligible films.)

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Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley, I'm Thinking of Ending Things
• Carrie Coon, The Nest
• Tallie Medel, Fourteen
• Elisabeth Moss, The Invisible Man
• Vasilisa Perelygina, Beanpole

Previous "nominations": Moss gets her third nomination total and her second in a row, having placed 2nd last year for Her Smell. She also came in 3rd in Supporting for Listen Up Philip (2014). 

Overlap with Oscar nominees: None, though Andra Day was ineligible (The United States vs Billie Holiday being a 2021 film for Skandies purposes); see also Supporting Actress below.

Just missed: Virginie Efira, Sibyl (#21; my own top choice); Jane Adams, Build the Wall (#22); Rachel McAdams, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (#23); Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (#24); Rashida Jones, On the Rocks (#25).

Not so much: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (#28).

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Best Actor

• Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
• Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• John Boyega, Red, White and Blue
• Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
• Luca Marinelli, Martin Eden

Previous "nominations": None.

Overlap with Oscar nominees: Ahmed, Boseman.

Just missed: Pierfrancesco Favino, The Traitor (#21); Ben Affleck, The Way Back (#22); Kent Osborne, Build the Wall (#23); Gary Oldman, Mank (#24); Steven Yeun, Minari (#25).

Not so much: Remarkably, all of the Oscar nominees were in our top 25 (just barely).

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Best Supporting Actor

• Orion Lee, First Cow
• Michael Martin, Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets
• Bill Murray, On the Rocks
• Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
• Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Previous "nominations": Third time for Murray, who placed 4th for Rushmore (1998) and 2nd for Lost in Translation (2003). 

Overlap with Oscar nominees: Raci. (Note that Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield were ineligible—Judas and the Black Messiah will be a 2021 film for the Skandies.)

Just missed: Donald Sutherland, The Burnt Orange Heresy (#22; remember, there was a tie for #20); Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (tie for #23); Lucas Hedges, Let Them All Talk a.k.a. The Fall of 2019 (tie for #23); Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami... (#25).

Not so much: All Oscar nominees accounted for (with two of them ineligible, as noted).

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Best Supporting Actress

• Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Norma Kuhling, Fourteen
• Gina Rodriguez, Kajillionaire
• Letitia Wright, Mangrove

Previous "nominations": None.

Overlap with Oscar nominees: Bakalova, Davis (though AMPAS had her in the lead category).

Just missed: Molly Parker, Pieces of a Woman (#21); Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (#22); Geraldine Viswanathan, Bad Education (#23); Dianne Wiest, Let Them All Talk a.k.a. The Fall of 2019 (#24); Debbie Honeywood, Sorry We Missed You (#25).

Not so much: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (#84). I'm stunned that she got a vote.

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Best Screenplay

• Sean Durkin, The Nest
• Charlie Kaufman, I'm Thinking of Ending Things
• Mike Makowsky, Bad Education
• Kelly Reichardt & Jonathan Raymond, First Cow
• Dan Sallitt, Fourteen

Previous "nominations": Kaufman has won Screenplay three times, for Being John Malkovich (1999), Adaptation (2002), and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004). Can he make it four? He also placed "only" 2nd for Synecdoche, New York (2008). 

Overlap with Oscar nominees: None.

Just missed: Joe Swanberg et al., Build the Wall (#21); Steve McQueen & Courttia Newland, Lovers Rock (#22); Thomas Vinterberg & Tobias Lindholm, Another Round (#23); Michael Almereyda, Tesla (tie for #24); Corneliu Porumboiu, The Whistlers (tie for #24).

Not so much: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (#32); Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (#39); Sacha Baron Cohen et al., Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (#46); Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton, The Father (#76); Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami... (#79); Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (no votes); Darius Marder & Abraham Marder, Sound of Metal (no votes; I feel vindicated in thinking it a bad movie); Chloé Zhao, Nomadland (ZERO FUCKING VOTES; I feel extremely vindicated in thinking it a mediocre movie). Again, Judas and the Black Messiah was ineligible. Likewise The White Tiger, which will also be a 2021 film for Skandie purposes.

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Best Scene

Nah, I gotta save something as a surprise.