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Exactly How Good is Sol Ring? Gameplay STATS (pt1) l #238 (Patreon)

Published:
2018-10-17 18:05:09
Imported:
2022-03

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Show Notes:

It’s finally here! The STATS episode (part 1 of 2). We’ve compiled data from over 300 games of Commander, analyzed the findings and now it’s time to go over the results. What do the statistics say about the power of Sol Ring? What role, if any, does turn order play in determining a game winner? What deck types have an advantage over the others?

WARNING: some of the findings might shock you!

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What we talked about on THE END STEP:


Hardcore Game of Thrones:

http://howl.fm/audio/playlists/4156/hardcore-game-of-thrones

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Files

Exactly How Good is Sol Ring? Commander Gameplay STATS (pt1) l CZ#238 l Magic the Gathering EDH

Support the show and become a Patron! Be a part of our community, receive awesome rewards, and more! http://www.patreon.com/commandzone ---------- Show Notes: It’s finally here! The STATS episode (part 1 of 2). We’ve compiled data from over 300 games of Commander, analyzed the findings and now it’s time to go over the results. What do the statistics say about the power of Sol Ring? What role, if any, does turn order play in determining a game winner? What deck types have an advantage over the others? WARNING: some of the findings might shock you! ---------- The Command Zone podcast is brought to you by Card Kingdom! Make sure to use our affiliate link the next time you purchase Magic cards or products: http://www.cardkingdom.com/commandzone Huge thanks to UltraPro (http://www.ultrapro.com - @UltraProIntl) for sponsoring this episode and providing awesome prizes for our giveaways! Find UltraPro on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/UltraProInternational/ Purchase a Game Knights t-shirt (available for a limited time): http://bit.ly/GKShirt ---------- What we talked about on THE END STEP: Hardcore Game of Thrones: http://howl.fm/audio/playlists/4156/hardcore-game-of-thrones ---------- Follow us on Twitter! @CommandCast @JoshLeeKwai @jfwong @jumbocommander Email us: commandzonecast@gmail.com ---------- Enjoying DJ's as a guest host on our show? Be sure to check out his YouTube channel: youtube.com/jumbocommander ---------- Special thanks to: Data Analyst: Andrew Greene Data Gatherers: Erick Keller, Ashlen Rose, Josh Murphy, Jordan Gee ---------- Huge thanks to Geoffrey Palmer for providing some of his amazing Living Cards animations for our videos. Follow him here: https://twitter.com/livingcardsmtg https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIuqWt79_d0hUK-dRhzFtAQ Check out our sister podcast - The Masters of Modern: http://collected.company/category/the-masters-of-modern/ Commander/EDH Official Rules, Banlist, Forums, and more: http://mtgcommander.net/rules.php

Comments

Anonymous

I had a big issue with the "card type" deck identification. You correctly identified the difficulty with identification of "win strategy," but EDHREC has done this to some extent. It identifies tribal, mill, lands, graveyard, etc. it's doable. Should consult EDHREC to run an analysis on your data set decklists. I also take some issue to your selection of game data. If you're using Commander Clash, and Commander Vs, they often use VERY restricting themes in their deck building. The restricting themes cause a meta to develop where very odd things cause wins. Third issue, how did you define "win by combo?" Ultimately, you have to win via one or the other listed win conditions (damage, mill, infect, alternate, etc.) Is it just, they had to go infinite? is it they needed some threshold # of pieces? If you're going to downplay the significance of "combo" it needs to be defined better.

Anonymous

DJ is rockin' the tee shirt. You do not want to call your own stuff groundbreaking--good call. But this is some fun stuff. Sample size of 300 with weird variables isn't scientifically iron-clad, but it's a fabulous start. All science and psuedo science needs to start somewhere. Here's where.

Anonymous

I have been teaching a few new people how to play and I start with just basic decks of, I guess standard/modern then move them to bigger mechanics. The end goal is teaching them how to play commander after they get the basics. However I’m not going to have them Build their own deck so they use one of my 9 decks I have. I run through the keys cards and tell them “don’t keep a hand with x lands, you need at least y”. I stress this so hard with them to teach them about the problem of keeping bad opening hands

Anonymous

First off, I'm really excited someone is trying to put some hard numbers on some of these things. It's almost like Myth Busters for commander! I want to make it *VERY* clear that I'm really glad you did this, because the rest of my comment might seem very critical. I assure you, it's only because I find this information fascinating, and I want to have the best data possible. One of my biggest concerns with the data collected is some of the variables that are hard to account for. For example, what was done about all the commander games that had to be built around specific themes or with specific restrictions? Commander VS does this very regularly, and I have to imagine it has a non-zero impact on the game. Commander Clash has a house banlist. Was that taken into account? A meta without Cyclonic Rift looks drastically different than one with it. Finally, my biggest concern is with player skill level. Josh, you specifically are *very* good at commander. You know how to play the table, which has a HUGE effect on games. The Sol Ring question for example, raises problems with play skill. Good players will know when and how to deploy their Sol Rings early without drawing the hate of the table. They know not to come out of the gates swinging, but rather use that mana advantage to develop their deck's engine and ensure they can take over later in the game. Obviously giving a player like this a turn 1 Sol Ring is drastically different than someone just playing out the cards in their hand. There are multiple episode of Game Knights where guest players clearly weren't on the same level as Jimmy and Josh, and that has to factor into the results of the game, and therefore the data provided by that game. All of this data was super interesting, but I'd love to see even more!

Anonymous

One note re: land, and maybe this is spoilers. But if the winner of the game is likely to be the person with the most land on the table, and green tends to get land out quicker and more consistently than other colors. Does that mean green is more likely to win generally? Or, conversely, is the land win ratio the result of green just being a strong color - period?

commandzone
>>16414960

Hi Matt! Thanks for the thoughts. Yes, definitely there are things in the sample that could skew the data. This is true about any sample you could grab though. I feel that by pulling from 4 different metas we get a nice smattering of different philosophies and playstyles that mimics what the overall landscape of EDH looks like. Lots of people do play vorthos or theme decks. Many decks are not fully tuned or optimized. Player skill is something that is difficult to control for, but I don’t think this is needed. That’s the point of pulling as many games as we could. Over a large enough sample, the skill doesn’t matter. It evens out. Sometimes I am the one getting the turn 1 Sol Ring, and sometimes I’m not. But given that I will get that about the same amount of times as my opponent, then the outcome of having it on either side should start to become noticeable. As for the house bans: We will address this a little bit in part 2 but Commander Clash only implemented their bans partway through last season. So, many of their games do no include those bans. In addition, house bans are a thing that many groups in the real world use, so again I don’t see this as a minus, I think it’s a plus. Am I saying our data is perfect? Definitely not. The sample is smaller than I’d like and no matter how you pull this kind of data it’s always going to be skewed by the groups involved. But I think it’s about as good as can be expected for a project of this size and I do believe it gives us some clues (but not conclusions) about some parts of the game where there might be misconceptions. JLK

commandzone
>>16394182

re: Combo - we specifically addressed this in the episode. If a player went infinite in any way to win, we called it a combo win.

Anonymous

REALLY looking forward to getting the raw data!

Anonymous

How can the 4 SuperFriends decks have a win procentage of 44 %? You would think it would be 25, 50, 75 or 100 %. You either win or loose. Only one may stand.

commandzone
>>16553371

The sample shown is the number of WINNING Superfriends decks. Not the total amount of them. This is our fault because I think we didn't state that correctly in the episode. -JLK

Anonymous

That makes a lot more sence. Perhaps I didn’t pay enough attention in the beginning. Just wanted to jump right in to the conclussions 😀