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How a War over Taiwan would Affect Shortages with Jason Fields - Telegrams for Guests (Patreon)

Published:
2021-10-28 01:46:30
Imported:
2021-12

Content

World War I was not the end of the world, World War II was not the end of the world, and a war between the West and China over Taiwan would also not be the end the world...but it would certainly suck.  How much would it suck?

Me and Jason Fields, former managing editor at Reuters, and Co-Host of the Angry Planet podcast, will be joining Tom for a grounded discussion of just what would happen if Taiwan was knocked out for a few years.  Broken Silicon avoids politics when it can, but sometimes - gaming is connected to them, and the MLID team feels this is a subject worth discussing.

To reiterate - Jason Fields is a former Managing Editor at Reuters.com, a political consultant, and also a gamer!  Do not miss THIS chance to ask serious geopolitical questions involving gaming hardware.  But also, please be well mannered, be respectful, and use good grammar to be considered for reading during the show.

Put your comments, questions, and thoughts related to how war could affect gamer supply chains below!  You have ~24 hours to submit questions!


https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonqfields/

https://www.reuters.com/journalists/jason-fields

https://twitter.com/JasonQFields

https://angryplanet.substack.com/p/when-will-china-invade-taiwan

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUS49548278220160520

Comments

KarbinCry

I see the prevention of conflict as far more important than mitigating the impacts of a possible conflict. Given this outlook, the US move to bolster domestic leading edge foundry capacity and thus decrease dependence on ROC-based foundries (TSMC, UMC) as the wrong move. If the US are dependent on ROC semiconductor manufacturing, does that not, in the eyes of PRC strategists, increase US commitment to support ROC if a conflict would break out? It is especially dangerous, methinks, as US domestic production can never suffice for the world, for the West, or even just for the US. What are your thoughts on this; does US' move towards silicon independence paradoxically increase the fragility of leading edge silicon supply for the world, and US itself?

Yours truly, Johnny Dollar

I am not sure if this is something that you would ask anyway, but can you make sure he describes the industry effects for a spectrum of scenarios? Like a low collateral damage invasion (the Chinese do not damage a lot of infrastructure), something more messy and something really bad. (This is all under the assumption the U.S. does not directly intervene militarily).

KarbinCry

In many ways, PRC is a paper tiger, far weaker that the US, despite popular conception. However, the regionality of a potential conflict over Taiwan (or South China Sea, or Senkaku Islands) obviously increases PRC's relative forces compared to what the US can realistically deploy. However local US allies have been expanding their military, or "self-defense", forces - namely Republic of Korea and Japan. Now with AUKUS, the US is further focusing on the capabilities of local allies. Do you think, long term, those three major local allies - Japan, Korea, Australia - with technological and industrial backing of the US can overturn PRC's advantage of regionality?

KarbinCry
>>70648604

Maybe an addition to this question - does a potential conflict with the PRC appear in insurance assessments for Taiwan-based assets (say, a fab)?

KarbinCry

Being current, topical and highly culturally relevant, would you say that Silicon Must Flow, Jason?

Aiden Maltbie

If war broke out, what are the chances of TSMC surviving? While modern warfare is much more precise than it used to be, but “mistakes” still happen. Or is Taiwan likely to adapt a scorched earth policy?

JJ Golden

Dear Jason and Tom, Bottom Line: what does China gain from Taiwan and how much are they willing to lose? I’m a pessimist and think a US-Sino War is inevitable. Obviously the island of Taiwan goes back to ROC forces following World War II and even earlier with Qing dynasty defeat and Japanese Occupation. In addition to China viewing Taiwan as a piece of the 2049 Great Rejuvenation, what does Taiwan provide the CCP? Is it economic security, diplomatic power or something else?

B. Fish

Let's assume China bombs Taiwan, TSMC is completely destroyed. From a purely supply chain standpoint though, I'm guessing their volume could somewhat be absorbed by Samsung, Intel, GloFo, etc. I know a lot of items are assembled in China and that production could possibly be sent somewhere like Vietnam. It seems to me like things would become delayed/more expensive and it would handicap certain firms more than others. Is there anything we get from Taiwan that is absolutely irreplaceable ?

MyNameIsCrease

First and foremost, thank you, Jason, for taking the time to talk with Tom and answer our questions! Also, Tom, thank you for getting such a great guest and for all the hard work you put into this podcast. It seems like the current automotive market is one of the first times the general public has really seen how truly impactful a silicon shortage can be in their daily lives, beyond just tech products being more expensive and harder to get. What are some of the other far reaching/unexpected implications that further constriction of the silicon supply chain, due to such a war, could have on people's daily lives?

Anonymous

Hello there Tom and Jason I hope you both are doing well. Here I have three questions feel free to reword or only use certain parts of my questions. First, In the case of a conflict or war being seriously considered more then likely not, how long if at all would it take for TSMC a third country if needed. Secondly, Would the Taiwanese government consider TSMC critical infrastructure and if so to what lengths are they prepared to invest both monetarily and lives lost to protect TSMC. Would the Chinese consider Finally, Would the Taiwanese government consider TSMC critical infrastructure and if so to what lengths are they prepared to invest both monetarily and lives lost to protect TSMC. Would the Chinese consider

Type2501

Hi Tom and our guest Jason, to be honest I was a bit surprised we would have a conversation about Taiwan and her geopolitical situation in a gaming hardware podcast. I spent five years of my life in Taiwan, have many good friends there. And here is a little episode I came across in central Taiwan. One night I was driving from my friend's place to a yakiniku ( Japanese grill) dinner. I was shocked when we drove pass a TSMC GIGAfab, a Micro fab, a Nanya fab (fourth largest DRAM maker in the world), HQ of AUO, and a Corning glass factory within our 30 minute city drive. We always know the importance of Taiwan in grobal electronic supply chain, but I was still amazed by how dense everything actually is.

Type2501

And here are my questions: 1. When the US draw Taiwan closer to her side for the blockage of china, alongside Republic of Korea, Japan, and Australian. To what degree would the uncertainty affect the long term investment in the region? If chip self-sufficient is the target to the developed countries, lead to my second question: 2. It toke Taiwan no less than 30 years to establish her semiconductor supply chain to the state it is, at the same time, the affort of India and the UK to be significant in semiconductor manufacturing come short. Do other developed counties (France, Germany) willing to spent the money and time to start the work all over again in order to secure their own fabs? Or will US convinced the world it's okay to rely on her foundries?

Dr Forbin

Tom and Jason, US companies have been slaves to shareholders for years, which makes sense in the short term long which I believe is very short sighted. Two of our major industries automotive and tech heavily rely on foreign manufacturing for parts and microchips to run them. Though companies like intel and TMSC plan on bringing online FABS to make product here. I believe it was never in the short term goals of many companies. China's adventurism in the China sea is a threat to other nations besides Taiwan. Clearly the China threat to Taiwan was never taken seriously by any of the major powers until the last few years. Do you believe that the China threat of one china is immanent? Do you believe it will cripple US industry in the supply chain, long term? If so for how long?

Anonymous

Recently a former defense secretary to the US Robert Gates said that the biggest threat to the US is the extreme polarization going on. Do you agree that this instead of the threat of China that a divide in the country would be a greater threat?

Anonymous

Do you think the debt crisis, real estate crisis, unsustainable development, and the dictatorship in China would create the conditions necessary for China to want to invade Taiwan and go to war with the US?

Anonymous

I would like to ask: Do you think it is really possible that China will invade Taiwan in near future (by 2025)?

Authoritarrr

Hey Tom and Jason, How do you think the market share of AMD, NVIDIA, and Intel would change based on the inability to use TSMC’s fabs? What advantages would Intel have for having US based fabs? Cheers for the awesome discussions!

Authoritarrr

Hello hello, Assuming that there would be a substantially reduced volume of gaming hardware products manufactured during such a war, what would be the effects on gamer sentiment towards the market? Would you expect people to stomach higher prices for a while (or permanently) or lose interest in the tech space, for example? How would you expect big tech companies to adjust their pricing, segmentation, and generational advancements accordingly? Thank you!

Authoritarrr

I can’t help but feel a war would be short lived. Surely Apple would pay all parties involved for a swift conclusion before their next iPhone release 😉

QuickJumper

Hey Tom and Jason. Jason do you have a better idea of how Taiwan is prepared for a possible takeover attempt. From what I read China is trying to infiltrate the government from within but If there was an actual attack would Taiwan be able to defend itself with the military capabilities they have now? Also, is China's increased aggression towards Taiwan caused by the economic slowdown China is facing?

Anonymous

Hello Tom and Jason. Do you have any insight into how semiconductor engineering jobs, such as in the fabs, differ in Taiwan vs the US or Europe in regards to entry requirements, career ladders or any other information you could provide? Also, I'd love to hear your thoughts on TSMC's current global expansion as they begin to realize their vision of becoming a global semiconductor supplier with the 4 fabs they have planned for the US, the Japan fab and their $100B spending spree. : D Thank you.

Timo H

AS I've learned, Russia wants to keep domestic production (tho most of it still reliant on TSMC now)... china has SMIC, which despite plentiful funding aint good in cpu's... then Intel has fabs and assembly and other things almost all over world. South america, african continent I dont know anything, but could guess some semi industry is there in old nodes to support militaries. So we would get along without TSMC and taiwan? What would it mean in each continent? Let's also add earthquakes and tsunamis, as example, for unexpected sitations endangering already brittle supply chain of semis, which one is more likely?

Alex

How worried should we be in Chinas growing influence over western game developers via companies like tencent?

Durmij

Hello Jason, Is a war with Tiawan actually significantly more probable than China resuming hostilities with India? Given the cost for attacking Tiawan are far and away higher than the consequences China last suffered after annexing Indian territory, wouldn't China's blustering and posturing be better served with border disputes with a more isolated India than a heavy naval engagement against a coalition it is sure to lose to? Does China actually have an ally outside of North Korea? South American and African countries paying it lip service for cheap vaccines and infrastructure not withstanding.