AGI Timelines (Patreon)

Drawing on interviews with half a dozen top experts at companies like Nvidia, Google DeepMind and Microsoft, as well as a host of other experts in the field, I'll give you their - and my - timelines for artificial general intelligence. By the end of the video, I want you to have a much better sense of what scale is needed, and what the approximate consensus is.

Links:

6 Exclusive Interviews +

Metaculus Predictions: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

Hassabis: https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/ai-deepmind-artificial-general-intelligence-b2332322.html

Carl Shulman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kRg-ZP1vQc&t=2151s

https://twitter.com/BostonDynamics/status/1618619858978996225

Nvidia B100: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/nvidias-plans-to-crush-competition

Yann LeCun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGDG3hgPNp8&t=5716s

https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1731445805817409918

Synapses and Neural Networks: https://wp.nyu.edu/yungjurick/2020/03/15/debate-on-the-relationship-between-neural-network-and-the-brain/

Wait But Why: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

Jensen Huang: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pkj-BLHs6dE

Amodei Clip: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1688577515550597121

Avatars at the End: https://shunsukesaito.github.io/rgca/

Levels of AGI, Google DeepMind: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.02462.pdf